When will this round of cryptocurrency bull market sell and cash out?
In a bear market, the biggest challenge for investors is how to overcome psychological fear and insist on fixed investment; while in a bull market, the biggest challenge for investors is how to maximize returns while avoiding a bull market crash. Choose an appropriate moment to start selling.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has exceeded $39,000, and the price of Ethereum has exceeded $1,200.
In the past two years, I have been advising investors to invest in Bitcoin within US$8,000 or US$10,000, and to invest in Ethereum within US$400. If our readers stick to this method, then Bitcoin and Ethereum have already achieved at least nearly 4 times and 3 times the income.
Faced with this profit, many investors are probably starting to feel anxious in their hearts. Should they sell now? If you sell it, you will think that Bitcoin may still be in the early stage of the bull market, and it would be a pity if it goes out of a more brilliant market in the future; , the hard-earned earnings run away for nothing.
In a bull market, this anxiety will always be with us and test us. If we can't deal with this emotion well and let it influence our actions, then our fixed investment in the past two years may fall short, and the bamboo basket will be empty.
To restrain this emotion, we first need to have a rough prediction of the long-term (4 years or even longer) development of digital currency, and then based on this prediction, combined with our own risk tolerance to formulate a A plan to sell and cash out in a bull market.
Taking myself as an example, I planned this bull market selling plan in this way. To show it more intuitively, suppose I have n bitcoins.
First of all, I am very optimistic about the long-term development of the entire digital currency in the future. I am willing to spend my whole life witnessing this miracle. Therefore, I will keep one-fifth of the bitcoin position and never sell it, rejecting the temptation of any interest and the intimidation of extreme market conditions. . I regard this as a lifelong battlefield to test and exercise my psychological endurance.
I have always believed that the biggest obstacle and enemy of investment is greed and fear in human nature, and this obstacle and enemy will accompany us throughout our life, so the struggle against this obstacle and enemy must accompany us throughout our life. There is no end to life, no end to battle.
So one-fifth of my bitcoin position, which is 0.2n bitcoins, will be locked forever and will not be sold.
Secondly, based on the current price of Bitcoin, I am more optimistic that Bitcoin is likely to rise to $150,000 (1 million RMB) in 4, 8, or 12 years. Therefore, as long as the bitcoin in this round of bull market does not exceed 150,000 US dollars, I will keep another fifth of the position (that is, 0.2n bitcoins) and hold it all the time. If it exceeds, this part of the position will be sold.
That is to say, as long as the bitcoins in this round of bull market do not exceed 150,000 US dollars, 0.2n bitcoins will remain in this round of bull market.
In this round of the market, Bitcoin has surpassed its historical peak of $19,220 in December last year, and it has only been one month since Bitcoin has risen to nearly $40,000. If the market goes on, Bitcoin is likely to reach or even exceed $100,000.
Therefore, I plan to be aggressive and wait until Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before starting to sell the remaining 0.6n (n – 0.2n – 0.2n) bitcoins in batches for cash. In this cash-out process, you can flexibly control how to sell in installments and batches: you can operate by a certain percentage increase, or by a certain price increase.
Let's take the price increase as an example. We can sell 0.15n for every $10,000 increase, that is, sell 0.15n at $100,000, sell 0.15n at $110,000, and sell 0.15n at $120,000. In this process, if we sell out, we don’t care about the subsequent market. If we don’t sell out and the bull market ends, then the remaining coins will stay in our hands.
No plan can be perfect and comprehensive, and this plan is no exception. In the most extreme case, if the current bull market fails to reach $100,000 for various reasons, the coins in my hands will never be cashed out, and I will have to hold them for at least another 4 years until the next bull market. This is the biggest time cost I have to pay to implement this plan.
I am willing to take this risk and am ready to pay the price and time cost in extreme cases.
This plan is only written for our investors as a reference, not for everyone to copy it completely, because everyone has different expectations for returns and different tolerance for risks, so everyone should formulate a plan that suits them based on their own expectations and abilities. The bull market cash-out plan.
