According to the model prediction, ETH will rise to $8880 in the future?

introduce

Inspired by PlanB's stock vs. flow regression model, I developed a regression model for Ethereum using the network's total daily fees.

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Cost per day regression modelhttps://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

The graph below is a regression model based on the daily fees processed on the Ethereum network versus the Ethereum price since August 2015.

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Data sources for charts made with Excel and CoinMetrics:

It can be seen that the model has an R-squared value of 94% over a roughly five-year time frame (August 2015 to December 2020), which represents a statistically relevant correlation.

I noticed that there are three main phases, which correlate to the three price ranges of Ethereum. Similar to PlanB's phase model, I summarize the three periods as phases and their daily transaction fees and Ethereum price averages as follows.

In the second phase (May 2016-February 2017), the daily cost is about 500 US dollars, and the average price is about 11 US dollars.

In the third period (December 2017 to December 2020), the daily transaction fee is about 500,000 US dollars, and the average price is about 33 US dollars.

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Transactions per dayhttps://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

To count the number of daily transactions, I evaluated the transactions at the level of transactions per second (TPS). Below is a time series graph of the transactions per second on the Ethereum network.

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• Data sources for charts made with Excel and CoinMetrics:

• Phase 1: 0.05 TPS

The second stage: 0.5 TPS

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Average fee per transactionhttps://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

When calculating the average fee per transaction, I took the average fee per transaction for the same time period as the TPS graph.

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Data sources for charts made with Excel and CoinMetrics:

Phase 1: $0.004 per transaction

Phase 2: $0.01 per transaction

Phase 3: $0.7 per transaction"secondary title"、"I have identified the highest, lowest and average transactions per second for the three periods and the corresponding transaction fees for those specific dates. In the table below, there are three main sections:"and"maximum value"minimum value

average value

, in these three parts, I have determined the TPS and transaction fee for each stage. For example: 0.81 is the maximum TPS determined on the Ethereum network during the second phase, and the corresponding transaction fee is $0.014 on that day. Total transaction fees for that day were approximately $962, and the regression model predicted a price of $15.6.https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/image description

exist"Data sources for charts made with Excel and CoinMetrics:"、"exist"and"maximum value"minimum value

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average value

For example: the lowest TPS observed in Phase 3 was 4.41 and the transaction fee was $0.1. This allows the model to calculate a minimum price of $99.8 in the third stage, and a minimum price of $82.8 in this stage.

The table below lists the historical growth percentages for TPS and transaction fees for Phases 2 and 3.https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

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Using a four-stage price model

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Inspired by the phase model of Plan B [2]https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

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Data sources for charts made with Excel and CoinMetrics:

The Phase 4 (5x) scenario implies a maximum price of approximately $8,880, a minimum price of approximately $554, and an average price of approximately $2,515.

Track Model Prices vs Actual Prices

Using the regression formula against the total daily fee and the actual price, we can see that the current model says that the price of Ethereum is $1200 (Dec 30), and the actual price is about $750.https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

Red indicates that the actual price is much lower than the modeled price, and blue indicates that the actual price is higher than the modeled price. ETH price is Y value and model price is 30-day moving average."image description"Evaluating whether the actual price is lower or higher than the model price by percentage, we can get the following graph. Interestingly, we noticed

image descriptionhttps://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/

in conclusion

Data sources for charts made with Python and CoinMetrics:

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in conclusion