Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
https://ethgasstation.info/index.php
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.Hello everyone, I am Pepe. In the last half month of 2020, we have witnessed Bitcoin break through new highs. In today's pullback, the big brother of Ethereum has suddenly emerged, breaking through 700 US dollars, which also drove a lot of defi coins and Market heat, today we will also talk about Ethereum in 2020 and look forward to 2021.
The changes in Ethereum this year can be understood by looking at a picture:The picture above is the ranking list of the amount of gas consumed by contracts in Ethereum in the past 30 days. Currently, uniswap ranks first. The gas cost of the moonlight platform can reach 12.7 million US dollars, except for some high-frequency contracts such as token distribution. In addition, in addition to stable coins, it is basically all kinds of dex.
It can be said that more than half of the factors in the ethereum ecology this year are due to the rise of various dexes, especially the AMM automatic market-making model with no threshold like uni, which has benefited a large number of small-cap projects that do not go to mainstream platforms. The premise of a currency transaction is that a certain amount of ETH is required as the bottom position of the fund pool, and this is not the only one of uni. At present, weth, which is the erc20 token mapped through eth1:1, is mainly responsible for the total amount of interaction with various ecological coins. More than 5.5 million pieces:Many people will think that this year’s meeting is much colder than that of Isio, but there are actually similarities in dex, and it is still a story of issuing coins and speculating coins. For the project side, eth configuration is also required, but it is just a change. This form also reduces the need for token financing. At the same time, this summer, the liquidity mining community is very popular, and many teams choose to produce their own tokens in the form of user mortgage mining.In addition to dex, another growth area is the lending leverage we often mention. Many people will focus on liquidity mining for DeFi, but in fact it is the major lending platforms that really bring vitality to the market. .
According to defipulse data, there are currently 7.3 million eth locked on major defi platforms:This data may overlap with the above weth, but from the above figure, almost two-thirds of the growth occurred this year, especially in the second half of the year.Of course, I also have to thank a good man here——Maker, who chose eth as the collateral instead of himself. By mortgaging eth to generate the stable currency dai, it is equivalent to releasing the liquidity of eth. This logical relationship has been introduced many times this year. Do not repeat.
The following is a long-term change chart of eth mortgage amount on Maker:It can be seen that the overall trend is still an upward growth process.However, the maker’s local currency has only risen by 37% this year, which is far lower than the performance of other leading currencies, and the social media level is also slightly low-key.In addition, in defi lending, I think the current mainstream is almost all multi-army, that is, mortgage various assets to lend stable coins. For example, the various Us in the AAVE v2 version recently turned to are almost all borrowed:Of course, there is a problem of user version migration here, but the current situation in defi is that basically only by depositing various u can there be some interest income. One can imagine the long-short ratio.To sum up, there are two major changes in Ethereum this year, one is the rise of dex, the other is the growth of various defi derivatives, and there may be another level of institutional participation, but I personally feel that it may not be like the first two in the short term. Institutional participation will have a higher impact on sentiment than fundamentals.
After talking about 2020, let's look forward to the future. There are several directions that can be seen at present:1. The news is good. CME will launch Ethereum futures products on February 8, 2021. Generally speaking, it is a good point to speculate on a larger platform. You can pay attention to this date.2. EIP1559—Proposal for destruction of handling feesThis is actually a proposal that has been pondered over for some years. It mainly wants to improve the current gas fee model, like the current complete bidding model. When the network is congested, it is easy to generate some instantaneous gas fee increases. Without a clear estimate, either it is easy to consume more gas, or the gas has just been paid, but the gas is increasing rapidly, and it is stuck again.This proposal does not require too much research. Its final effect is to smooth out the cost peaks generated when the network is congested in the above picture as much as possible, so as to bring a better network experience.In addition, the fee will be made into a model of base fee + miner’s tip, of which the base fee will be burned directly. This is also the most important point for many senior enthusiasts to pay special attention to the progress of this proposal, because if the proposal is implemented, it may mean that eth There is a possibility of deflation in the future of chips.Judging from the current situation, the protagonist of next year should still be DeFi, and the point that may limit the growth of DeFi is the issue of gas fees. During the process of ether rising, gas will naturally rise, not to mention usually When the market value is high, the chain is even more congested. Especially for transactions on platforms such as Uni, the cost of an operation is more than ten dollars, which is still very scary.
epilogue
If you don’t want to be restricted by congestion, there may be a solution at present that is the two-layer network. More transactions are placed on the second layer, and ether is used as the settlement layer. This is what many technology enthusiasts have been paying attention to. I will see this later. Let's see another topical discussion, I won't talk too much today.However, the difficulty of the second-tier network may not be the technology, but how to popularize it in the market, promote user migration or the adoption of dex platforms.
