My Investing Experience: Why Am I Interested in "Plunges"?

The previous articles talked about my experience of investing in A shares. Because of these experiences, I gradually formed a new habit: I became very sensitive and interested in the "slump", and the more public it was reported in the large media I am more interested in the plunge information.

I think that the plunge information that can be reported by large media is generally a major event in the industry, and these most significant plunge events may often reflect that the target of the plunge has developed to the extreme, and the sentiment of the entire market has been extremely low. If this plunge The price of the target will gradually recover as the economy recovers, so such an investment target must be worth buying at this time.

Around mid-January 2016, a large number of financial media reported similar news: the Baltic index fell to a rare historical low, and the economic winter caused global panic.

When I saw this news, I immediately became interested, because there appeared in the news a target that entered a "rare historical low" --- "Baltic Sea Index". But I don’t know what this index is, so I quickly searched online and learned that this index reflects the prosperity of global shipping. The higher the index, the more prosperous the global shipping, and the lower the index, the more sluggish the global shipping. The prosperity or downturn of shipping directly reflects the prosperity or downturn of the global economy.

At that time, our country was facing a serious imbalance in the supply side and a serious surplus in the economy, and the A-share market had just experienced a painful plunge in the previous year (2015). Therefore, the entire national economy was at a turning point in adjustment, and market sentiment was in extreme turmoil. uneasy. Other countries around the world are also facing serious economic problems of their own. These are reflected in shipping that the trade between countries has almost stagnated, and the Baltic Sea Index has fallen to a rare low.

At that time, the Baltic Sea Index was probably within 400 points, while the index would be above 1,000 in normal years.

Is the global economy completely out of play? I think it is impossible, the global economy must be positive in the long run. Whether it is the United States, China, or Europe, there will be a day when they get out of the quagmire, so shipping will definitely resume. If shipping resumes, even if it does not reach a climax, as long as it reaches a normal year, the index will rise by at least 2 times.

So at that time, you can start regular investment in this index, which is the investment price given by God.

I searched for various information on the Internet, and found that our country currently has no funds or ETFs that directly anchor the trend of this index and are publicly issued, which are convenient for ordinary investors to buy. There are only some marginal investment products, and these marginal investment products are in the market. The credit is not reliable enough, so I did not invest in this product, but since then I have started to pay attention to this index.

By September 2019, that is, more than 3 years later, this index had risen from less than 400 points when I started paying attention to 2400 points, a full increase of more than 6 times.

The next interesting thing is that God once again gave this index a god-sent investment opportunity. When the new crown epidemic broke out at the beginning of this year, global shipping was almost suspended, and the index plummeted again to more than 400 points in February this year. Now, with the revival of our country's economy and its leadership of the global economy, this index has returned to 1300 points.

For any thing that is at an extremely low level, we only need to grasp one point when judging its investment value: Is there a chance for it to recover in the future, and if there is a chance for it to recover, how big is the profit space for it to return to normal levels? As long as there are 2 times, such an investment product is worth buying at a low fixed investment.

Using this thinking to look at all aspects of the investment market, we can find a large number of investment opportunities. For example, after the outbreak of the epidemic this year, the price of crude oil appeared negative, silver fell to as low as $9, and (London) copper fell to $4,439. These panic events, which appeared to be unprecedented in the media, seemed to me to be investment opportunities everywhere.

Seeing such an investment opportunity, the next step is to find a credible and convenient investment tool to start investing. If we can’t find such a tool and can’t buy it, we can keep paying attention to it. We will invest again when our country’s financial market becomes more mature and some convenient investment tools appear in the future.

The development of any country and any investment field has a cycle, and there will be low tides and high tides in the cycle, so we only need to intervene at the low tide and leave the market at the high tide to make a profit. And the cycle is repeated again and again, so we only need to open our eyes and pay attention to various fields and markets to find a large number of such cycles. These are investment opportunities that we may start with.

In my previous articles, I always emphasized that investment is a lifetime event. As long as we survive, we must not worry that there are no new opportunities in this market. This is the reason.

So far, none of the investment opportunities I have paid attention to and operated have been obtained by asking insiders, digging up gossip, and crowding out the circle of bigwigs. All of them are news that everyone can see on the public media. It's just that when the news came out, most people panicked when they saw it, but I was overjoyed when I saw it.