Analysis of the market trend of Ethereum, Litecoin and BCH in this round

Yesterday I shared my conjectures about Ethereum with you in the article. To put it simply, I believe that the future market value of Ethereum is likely to exceed that of Bitcoin, but if the currency price reaches or even exceeds $3,800 in this round of market, it proves that the risk of the market is too high.

So what is the reasonable price of Ethereum's current round of market price? I think this has a great dependence on the increase of Bitcoin.

As of writing, the price of Bitcoin has reached $23,000. If it is estimated to rise to $50,000, the increase will be doubled. If it is estimated to rise to $100,000 according to some optimistic estimates, the increase will be quadrupled. Therefore, the increase of Bitcoin in the big market next year may be about 2 times to 4 times that of the current one.

I think this is also the upper limit for Ethereum's gains.

As of the time of writing, the price of Ethereum is $650. If it is calculated based on the increase of 2 times to 4 times, its price in this round of market is about $1350 to $2600.

Considering that in the bull market in 2017, the highest price of Ethereum exceeded 1,400 US dollars. If this round of market development reaches a climax and Ethereum does not exceed the peak value of the previous round, it may not be considered a bull market. Therefore, I estimate that Ethereum will reach its peak next year. When the price peaks in the next year, it will probably be around $1,500 to $3,000.

In addition to Ethereum, Litecoin and BCH are also old currencies in the currency circle, and they are also the varieties invested by many investors, and their positions are not low. These two coins also have a great advantage, they are both invested and supported by Grayscale Capital and Paypal. Therefore, in the United States, many investors will also buy them. So I believe that these two coins will also perform well in this round of market conditions.

There is an empirical judgment in the circle: it is believed that in the bull market, the growth rate of other altcoins will generally be higher than that of Bitcoin. The altcoins here refer to all other digital currencies except Bitcoin, which of course include Litecoin and BCH. But I have reservations about this judgment. I think that in this round of market, the rise of Litecoin and BCH is unlikely to be higher than that of Bitcoin, and even if it is really high, it will not be much higher.

Let's look at the following two pictures:

These two pictures are the trend charts of Litecoin and BCH from 312 this year to the present. The first one is the trend of Litecoin, and the second one is the trend of BCH.

We can see that both coins fell to their troughs on March 13, Litecoin was $32, and BCH was $141; both rose to their highs on December 19 and November 25, Litecoin is at $109 and BCH is at $357. Their gains were 3.4 times and 2.5 times respectively.

I think that for a currency with a large market value, especially an old currency, rising from a trough to a high level is the best way to see its rebound potential. Litecoin and BCH have risen from the bottom to the high, and neither of them has increased by more than 4 times. Compared with Bitcoin's rebound from 312 to the current increase (more than 4 times), the gap can be seen. Moreover, for a currency with such a high market value as Bitcoin to have such an increase, it needs a huge amount of funds to promote it, and it will be much more difficult.

The current increase of Litecoin and BCH cannot exceed that of Bitcoin, and I believe that it will still be difficult for them to increase in the future. So I estimate that the increase of these two coins is about 2 times to 4 times.

For Litecoin, when its market peaks in the next year or the middle of the year after, the price will be around $200 to $400.

For BCH, when its market peaks next year or in the middle of the year after, the price will be around $700 to $1,400.

Compared to their peaks in 2017 ($350 for Litecoin and close to $4,000 for BCH), Litecoin has the potential to break through previous highs, while BCH may not.

If they can break through their previous highs, it is possible to form a stronger consensus among investors after this bull market, and survive in the long run like Bitcoin. But if they fail to break through the previous highs, it is possible that after this round of bull market, they will gradually lose their aura and be eliminated by the market like those previous "highlight currencies".

Every round of bull market will undergo a major reshuffle of "mainstream currencies", and this round will be no exception.