Be Sober: There Is No Next Ethereum

Yesterday’s Nangong Yuan’s article "Spray if you don’t understand: Is DOT/KSM an opportunity or a trap? ", triggered my thinking today. Today's article cannot answer Nangongyuan's doubts. The essence of Nangongyuan's question is "the opposite of market orientation", "why the market doesn't choose this way"? This question is like: Why is the market (a currency that I am not optimistic about) rising like this?

And if someone can accurately answer this question, then the money in the market should be made by such a person. So, in my opinion, Nangong Yuan's problem is 'unsolvable'! Although Ah Feng gave an answer in today's article, I think Nan Gongyuan is not satisfied with the answer he gave.

When we look at blockchain projects, we always think unnaturally from the perspective of "technology = price". At the same time, when we judge whether a project is feasible, we can often only consider it from the two core dimensions of technical architecture and founders.

The same is true for Afeng’s Polkadot analysis article, which is very similar to EOS, and the market performance during the same period is also similar.

This leads to a paradox:

If you talk about the market, he will talk about technology; if you talk about technology, he will talk about price.

Previously, according to the concept of 3D printing, 3D printing should be comparable to concepts such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things, but 3D printing is almost stillborn now.

If you have to say where 3D printing is not good, it must be that it lacks some "connection properties" compared with other concepts.

My conclusion is: technology ≠ price.

This is the case for products under the Internet, and the blockchain (currency circle), as an extension of the Internet, should be the same.

1. The next Ethereum

There are often words like "the next bitcoin" appearing in the projects of the fund market, but in fact, no matter whether it is the fund market or the real market, there are often projects that will become the "next bitcoin", even the second place in the field. I can't even do it.

Since 2017, the FOMO of Ethereum has not ended yet, and for most currency people, the public chain that surpasses Ethereum should not only surpass it in terms of technology, but should first surpass its technical performance, and then surpass its thousand-fold increase. !

The so-called "beyond Ethereum" is just a pretense of FOMO, and the essence of surpassing "Ethereum's gains" is the essence!

Nan Gongyuan also mentioned very sincerely that he is not optimistic about KSM, but worried about missing out (the next thousand times currency)

However, it is very strange that most people do not hold ETH all the time. For example, a bigwig like Qicai Shenyu cannot hold the increase of thousands of times.

Of course, this had something to do with the industry at that time. At that time, there was no public chain product in the market. Except for the concept of BTC’s tens of millions of times increase, everyone did not feel that “other currencies” can also increase by a thousand times.

Now with such cognition instilled, investors began to look for the next Ethereum (thousand-fold currency) all over the world. After all, it is almost impossible for Bitcoin to increase by a thousand times, and so is Ethereum.

How magical is a thousand times?

Invest 10,000 yuan, get back 9.99 million! Even if you invest 1,000 yuan, you can get back 999,000 yuan! If you invest 100 yuan, you can also exchange it for 99,900 yuan!

This risk-benefit ratio (1/1000) fascinates the currency people.

However, looking back at my own investment experience, I know very clearly how difficult it is to hold a 10X coin. If you want to hold a thousand times currency, you need a strong heart and the ability to make money outside the market. This is hardly considered in the currency circle.

At the same time, most people can't wait for several years, or even a cycle. I always hope that the "next ***" can use 1-2 years to complete the precipitation of Ethereum for several years. How is it possible? It is always easy for leeks to overestimate their investment capabilities.

2. Competition and offense

Currency people are obsessed, and the project side is the same. They also think about a thousand times the income, a wave of wealth and freedom.

And because the blockchain code is all open source, it takes almost every second to copy a public chain, so a large number of **chains appeared after 2017. At present, there are only a few relatively "mainstream" public chains (without many practical applications) such as EOS, TRX, BTM, QTUM, and IOST.

Although the project party did not mention that they wanted to compete for ETH, they subconsciously wanted to become the "next Ethereum". The subconscious is to find the pain points of ETH, attack ETH, and harmoniously call it "competition".

In the end, this kind of competition is not a competition of performance, but a competition of the market in essence. And all the latecomers have never considered the competition of ETH against themselves.

After all, God V is still a baby in the eyes of everyone, and the Ethereum network is also slow (and expensive) to death.

But what is more strange is that the market is more willing to believe in the innocence behind V God's baby face, and believes that ETH's POW machine will not do evil. On the contrary, latecomers, in the eyes of most people, are "unpredictable", and the safe choice that big funds can make is to stay away from them.

What's more, the development of latecomers has not become "Blockchain 3.0" as mentioned at the beginning, which makes mainstream funds unwilling to touch public chains other than ETH.

Those who cannot be killed will make me stronger. The more people who cannot be killed, the stronger the consensus of ETH in people's minds. Although the word "consensus" is illusory, it is the most important thing in the currency circle.

at last:

There is a saying that the projects seen in the WeChat group often fail to achieve success. The longer I stay in the currency circle, the more I feel that this sentence is too clever.

Seeing the public chain that is hotly discussed in the circle is the next Ethereum; seeing the content community is the next Oriental Fortune; seeing DeFi is the next Uniswap; seeing the public chain is the next Ethereum.

Perhaps, we should all wake up, there will be no next Ethereum.

However, there will definitely be a second and third place, just like with Tmall, the market can still accommodate JD Dog. So, take the second place, don't try to be the next one.

END