All callbacks at this stage are good opportunities for batch layout

In the past few days, many articles have been talking about the sharp drop. Some readers asked, "Since there is such a big correction, why not make a big swing and why do you still want to invest?"

In fact, neither my November 11th article on the black swan nor my article yesterday said that a crash is 100% sure to happen, and I also emphasized in yesterday's article, "If the callback cannot reach this price, Don’t regret it, just let it go.”

I don't believe that anyone can say with 100% certainty what the market trend will be in the short term (2 months), and what the bands need to grasp is precisely the short-term trend. In my opinion, this is no different from gambling, so for such a pullback, I never recommend that you do swings.

The main point of doing swings is to sell at high points and buy back at low points.

The question then becomes, what is the high point here? From the time I wrote the article on November 11 to the sharp drop on November 26, Bitcoin rose from $15,000 to $19,000. During this process, was the high point $16,000, $17,000, $18,000 or $19,000? We cannot know in advance.

Again, what's the low point here? In the sharp drop the day before yesterday, Bitcoin fell all the way to $16,000, and it was $17,000 as of writing. Will it continue to pull back in the future? How far can it be called back? Nor can we know in advance.

Even if we accurately guessed the high and low points and made a wave of price difference, I don't think the profit will be too high, and if we can't guess the high and low points, we will lose the two-time investment in our hands in vain before the climax of the bull market arrives. The bargaining chips accumulated through years of hard work will become "picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelon".

For this sharp drop, there have been many articles in the past two days trying to search for the possible reasons behind it. Some articles attribute it to the suppression of digital currencies by multiple policies recently introduced by the United States. These policies mainly include the following two:

The first is that the source of the margin of Grayscale Capital is blocked. If Grayscale loses its margin, the funds flowing into the digital currency market in the future will be restricted to a certain extent, which is equivalent to deleveraging Grayscale. Therefore, in the future, Grayscale’s efforts to buy digital currencies may not be as strong as before.

The second is that Brian Armstrong, the co-founder of Coinbase, posted more than a dozen tweets in a row, saying that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is planning to introduce new regulations on "self-hosted encrypted wallets" before the end of his term. The core of this new regulation is to track digital currency wallets, and even grade the identity of digital currency wallet holders, in order to combat illegal money laundering. This move will undoubtedly greatly reduce the anonymity of digital currency.

Such a policy will indeed dampen the enthusiasm of the market to a certain extent and dampen the enthusiasm of investors.

However, I still have some doubts about these two points, especially whether the second point will lead to a relatively large callback. Because although Grayscale’s buying has indeed played a significant role in the recent surge in Bitcoin, the institutional investors who bought through Grayscale may not be for the sake of anonymity, and I’m afraid it’s more about the wealth effect. of.

Therefore, whether these two policies will ferment into my country's 94 in the past is unclear in the short term, because even without these two policies, the recent macro environment is not conducive to the market's continued rise in the short term.

Regardless of whether this is the American version of 94, I still hope that this correction will come more violently and be lower than the fixed investment price we set, and it will last longer, so that we have a longer period of time to calmly make fixed investment.

It's like a reader left a message: "I feel that the chips in my hand are not enough, and I don't want it to be so fast." This is a sentence I am very pleased with and agree with.