Ten sets of data tell you what you don't know about Ethereum

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Under the current price of Ethereum, how many ETH accounts are in a profitable state? The number and ratio of In the Money addresses reflect the current overall investment position cost of Ethereum investors.

According to the data from Intotheblock, an on-chain data analysis company, we can compare from two perspectives, the number of addresses and the number of Ethereum.

As far as the current spot price of Ethereum is $528, 78.39% of the addresses holding Ethereum have realized profits, which is about 38.58 million addresses.At present, there are about 6.94 million addresses that have not realized profit, which is about 14.11%. Another 7.49% of addresses are in breakeven.

From the perspective of the quantity of Ethereum,There are currently 90.36 million Ethereum in profit, accounting for 79.56%.There are still 9.52 million ETH in a state of loss, and the proportion of this part is 8.38%.

If the price of Ethereum breaks through the integer value of $600 again, it means that only 5.97 million Ethereum addresses and 4.94 million ETH are in a state of loss. this means,After Ethereum breaks through $600, about 96% of Ethereum will be in profit or return to capital.

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According to the on-chain address data of CoinMetrics,The number of active addresses in Ethereum continues to increase, and the current number of active addresses is about 545,000.At the January 16, 2018 high, 735,000 addresses were active that day. It should be noted that the 14-day average is used for smoothing in the figure for ease of viewing.

The number of active addresses on the chain can reflect the activity of market transactions and serve as an auxiliary indicator for community participation and possible trends in currency prices. Since the beginning of 2020, especially since the upsurge of liquidity mining in summer and the development of the DeFi ecosystem in the Ethereum community have also boosted the activity of the Ethereum network.

Another relevant data is the relative proportion of active addresses to the total addresses. The active addresses and total addresses measured by this indicator are all addresses with balance among the addresses for statistics.

According to IntoTheBlock statistics,The current daily active addresses account for about 1.1% of the total number of addresses.

As a comparison, we can see that during the period from June 2017 to February 2018, the proportion of active addresses was in the range of 4% - 10%.

Here we need to take into account the impact of the number of new addresses in Ethereum. The surge in addresses in a short period of time often corresponds to the increase in transaction volume in the secondary market and the large fluctuations in currency prices. According to Glassnode data,The current increase in new addresses is about 134,000, showing a fluctuating upward trend, but compared with the previous wave of bull market, it is still a moderate increase.

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The transaction volume on the chain reflects the daily transaction volume in the Ethereum network, which is used to measure the activity of the network. From the above data, during the two-year period, from May 2018 to March 2020, the daily transaction volume of Ethereum often fluctuated within the range of 3 million ETH.

This year's data shows that it gradually rose to the average daily trading volume range of 5 million ETH. During the DeFi boom, the daily trading volume once exceeded 10 million ETH, and then fell back to between 5 million ETH and 8 million ETH.

Compared with the trading volume of Ethereum during the last round of bull market (as shown in the figure below, from IntoTheBlock), we can regard the daily trading volume of 10 million ETH as a trading range that needs to be reached first. The law of volume before price shows that on-chain transactions may to a certain extent provide us with a reference indicator for preparing for the next wave of bull market escape. When volume shrinks and prices rise, we must start to be vigilant.

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Mayer index (Mayer) is often used in BTC market analysis to measure whether the current market is overbought or oversold. This indicator was created by Twitter user Trace Mayer. QKL123 provides the Mayer index of the Ethereum market.

Specifically, the Mayer index compares the current currency price with the 200-day average price to obtain a ratio. If the Mayer Index value is large, it means that the current currency price is higher than the 200-day average price and may be in an overbought state; if the Mayer Multiple is small, it means that the current currency price is lower than the 200-day average price and may be in an oversold state. The Mayer index indicates traders' optimistic or pessimistic view of the market.

The current Mayer index of the Ethereum market is around 1.8. Since the Mayer index is not an absolute indicator, we need to compare it with historical data under different scenarios. If the Mayer index is too large, it means that the current market price is difficult to maintain, and the risk of a bubble bursting increases, and positions need to be carefully controlled.

The two days when the Ethereum Mayer index reached the highest value in history were March 14th in 2016 and June 13th in 2017. Since the Mayer indicator is not commonly used in the Ethereum market, it still needs to be corrected when it is actually used, especially for currencies like Ethereum that only started to experience the first round of bull market in 2017.

When the price of Ethereum reached 9020 yuan on January 14, 2018, the Mayer index was 3.42.

Therefore, we can ignore the two extreme values ​​​​of the Mayer indicator, and use the data at the beginning of 2018 as a reference for the extreme bull market to prepare for a reversal node.

Similarly, we can see that the price of Ethereum was around 900 yuan on March 12, 2019, when the Mayer index was 0.8.

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According to the Jiang Zhuoer escape top indicator given by QKL123, it can be used to measure the current market position. Jiang Zhuoer's escape from the top refers to the degree of fanaticism used to describe market sentiment. At the end of the bull market, the market is frenzied, bubbles are piling up, and the currency price rises rapidly in a short period of time, exceeding the entry speed of newcomers and new funds. This indicator uses the 60-day cumulative increase to measure the market's trading sentiment. If the value is too high, it means that the market should be alerted to the turning point of the bubble bursting.

According to historical data experience, in the Ethereum market, the 60-day cumulative increase of 100% can be used as a reference to measure the risk of the market bubble bursting.

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at present,

at present,More than 57% of Ethereum addresses have held coins for more than a year.Specifically, there are currently 28.39 million addresses and 59.26 million ETH have been locked for more than a year. This data may reflect the optimistic attitude of Ethereum holders towards the market outlook.

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On October 12, the cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale Investments (Greyscale) released a message on its official Twitter, saying that it has officially obtained SEC approval, and its Ethereum Trust has officially become an SEC reporting company.

Grayscale Trust provides a convenient and compliant channel for traditional institutions to purchase encrypted assets. It is no wonder that many people are excited about it. In addition to the Bitcoin Grayscale Trust, the Ethereum Grayscale Trust can also be traded in the market today, and the Grayscale Trust ETH holdings indicator indicates the amount of ETH held in the ETH Trust.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust's current holdings are 2.635 million, and issued 28,367,200 liquid trust shares, each of which contains 0.09289242 ETH.

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DeFi is the flagship of the Ethereum ecosystem. According to DeBank data, after the total lock-up volume of DeFi broke through a new high in mid-November, the lock-up volume of DeFi products has fallen back recently.

DeBank uses the asset value after removing the endogenous assets of DeFi applications to measure the real lock-up volume. Compared with the total lock-up volume data, it can more truly reflect the ecological data of DeFi.

The current locked-up amount of ETH in DeFi is 7 million, which is 900,000 ETH less than the peak value. One of the factors may be that the recent rise in the price of ETH has encouraged some DeFi players to ship. All the top-ranking DeFi applications have experienced varying degrees of decline in locked positions.

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Nine, computing powerNear historical peak        

Although the creation of the beacon chain is getting closer as ETH2 is approaching Phase0, many third-party mortgages and token holders have begun to deploy the Staking market to participate in ETH2 mining. But before ETH fully transitions to the PoS mechanism, the difficulty of network mining can still be used as the attitude of the miners to the market.

The data in the figure shows the Hash computing power of Ethereum. It can be seen that in the past six months, the mining computing power of Ethereum has continued to increase, from 176 TH/s in late June to the current 266.38 TH/s, TH/s Indicates the amount of hash operations that can be run per second (THash is the unit), and indicates the size of the computing power value.

At the same time, according to the data of QKL123, the current Ethereum network computing power is also close to the historical high value, and the current mining difficulty is 3.56 P. The higher the difficulty of mining, the more cost to produce a block.

The increase in computing power and mining difficulty comes from two aspects: the addition of more high-performance mining machines, and the investment of more costs to participate in mining.This means that during the continuation of this wave of bull market, although there is some controversy over the switch between PoW and PoS, the miners are still investing for a long time and are optimistic about the future of Ethereum.

According to the data, the current mining pools with the largest computing power come from Spark Pool, EtherMine, and Spider Pool. Among them, the sum of the computing power of Spark Pool and EtherMine Pool accounts for almost half of the total network computing power.

first level titlehttps://miningpoolstats.stream/ethereum

The current total amount of Ethereum is 110 million, and about 18,000 ETH are dug up every day, and the current total market value is 442.95 billion yuan. At the beginning of January 2018, the peak market value of Ethereum reached 863 billion, which means that if calculated according to the current amount of Ethereum, the price can be doubled to restore the previous high market value level.

At present, BTC has recovered its previous market value level, and the price is on the way to breaking through the previous high. In contrast, you can also intuitively feel the operating rhythm of different markets. It will take time for Ethereum to break through the previous high.

Of course, considering that the market value indicator will be affected by many factors when used as an estimation parameter, such as circulation, price volatility, etc., it is not suitable for strict estimation, but it can roughly show that the emotional cycle of the ETH market is continuing to be optimistic accumulation stage.

The current average Gas price is 35.12 Gwei. The gas fee measures the activity in the Ethereum network. As the number of network participants increases, the gas fee will increase in order to increase the priority of transactions being packaged into blocks. During August-September 2020, Gas fees soared to hundreds, caused by DeFi traders.

Another factor will affect the ETH market: the development of the ETH 2.0 Staking field.

There are currently 742,432 ETH locked in the ETH storage contract, which has met the minimum requirement of 524,288 ETH deposited to start the ETH 2.0 phase.

Summarize

Through the above ten sets of data, we should have an intuitive understanding of the current status and trends of the Ethereum network. Despite the correction, nearly 80% of the addresses are still profitable, the proportion of long-term positions on the chain is also increasing, and the market fundamentals are still positive.

In addition, the overall market cycle has entered an upward phase, and the addition of institutional giants such as Grayscale and Paypal will bring new growth forces to the encryption market. Compared with the past, there are more institutional players, and I think it will be more stable than before.

There are risks in the market, and investment needs to do your homework. I hope some of the thinking angles mentioned in this article can give you some inspiration.

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Disclaimer: This article is the author's independent opinion, does not represent the position of the Blockchain Institute (public account), and does not constitute any investment opinion or suggestion.

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Disclaimer: This article is the author's independent opinion, does not represent the position of the Blockchain Institute (public account), and does not constitute any investment opinion or suggestion.