The Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain is launched, will it explode later?
6 days ago (13:00 on November 19), the ETH deposited in the pledge contract of the ETH2.0 beacon chain only accounted for 19.58% of the total target (524288ETH). At this time, 15 days have passed since the release of the beacon chain deposit contract address, but the progress of the mortgage is not as optimistic as people imagined. Even on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, punters estimate only a 39% chance that the ETH 2.0 beacon chain will launch on time.
As of yesterday (November 24), the data showed that the number of Ethereum stored in the deposit contract of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain had reached 524,288, and the threshold for the start of the beacon chain had been officially reached, which means that the creation of Ethereum 2.0 The genesis block of the standard chain will be dug out on the scheduled December 1st.
Regarding why the number of Ethereum mortgages in the beacon chain deposit contract increased so rapidly in just five days from November 19th to November 24th, various media have given different speculations, such as thinking that Uniswap liquidity The end of mining causes a part of ETH to enter the mortgage. But these speculations are not supported by strong data.
In my opinion, the biggest reason may be the recent surge of Bitcoin, which has led people to be generally optimistic about Ethereum, thus buying a large amount of ETH from the market for mortgage.
The picture below is the price chart of Ethereum from November 18 to November 25.
From the figure, we can see that on November 18, the price of Ethereum was only $484, and as of writing, the price of Ethereum has reached $600, and within these 7 days, the price of Ethereum has increased by 24%.
Perhaps it was when people bought a large number of Ethereum to participate in the mortgage that led to the skyrocketing of Ethereum during this period.
Although the start-up threshold of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain has been reached, if we carefully observe the atmosphere and news in the circle, we will find that even in the circle so far, there are still not many people participating in the mortgage. The focus of people's attention now is only on which coins are skyrocketing in price, and the focus has not yet shifted to the staking activities of the beacon chain.
At present, there are not many merchants who have launched mortgage services on the beacon chain, and even the three major exchanges have not yet launched large-scale publicity and intervention. The reason for this, in my opinion, is not that merchants ignore it, but that the hidden risks of mortgages make everyone have certain doubts.
Because the ETH mortgaged into the beacon chain will not be able to be withdrawn for at least 1 to 2 years, and the roadmap of Ethereum 2.0 has undergone major changes recently. Although this change will generally accelerate the landing of Ethereum 2.0, this kind of The changes also add a bit of uncertainty to the future of Ethereum 2.0.
In addition, whether there will be problems with the operation of the beacon chain, and whether there will be problems with the mortgaged ETH if there is a problem is also a question that lies in the minds of many potential participants.
Furthermore, the current price of Ethereum has climbed to 600 US dollars. For individuals who want to run a node, 32 Ethereum are required to participate in the mortgage. According to the current price, the total value is 19,200 US dollars, which is more than 120,000 RMB. This is not a small amount. .
Therefore, no matter from the perspective of merchants or from the perspective of individual node operations, everyone still has reservations about this and is still waiting and watching.
I estimate that by December 1st, after the Beacon Chain is officially launched and continues to run for a period of time, if there are no major problems or major accidents, then merchants and potential participants will start to build confidence in the Beacon Chain and participate with confidence. Mortgage, then the staking activities of the beacon chain will really kick off.
I will continue to follow up, and after December 1st, I will look at the follow-up development and share my views with you.
