Will the pledge economy bring about the rise of ETH?
Editor's Note: This article comes fromWildflower said (ID: silentnight2018)Editor's Note: This article comes from
Wildflower said (ID: silentnight2018)
At present, the price of BTC is only one step away from the highest point of the 2017 bull market of 19,798.68 US dollars, and the market performance is still strong; on the contrary, the trend of ETH is a bit weak, oscillating for two and a half months, and has not yet surpassed the small peak of DeFi in early September high point.
How will the subsequent performance of ETH be? Can it set off a super increase like in 2017? We think the answer is yes, the reason is the arrival of the pledge economy, which will bring about the rise of ETH.
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What is the pledge economy?
Then the pledge economy of a digital currency is to store a certain digital currency somewhere, and then you can get a certain amount of income. This income can be in the form of other digital currencies or the digital currency itself.
Note: The staking economy we are talking about here is a bit broader than the "Staking Economies" in the circle. Staking Economies in the circle generally refers to the POS or DPOS public chain tokens pledged on their own public chain to generate income, while The pledge economy here refers to the pledge economy as long as the user generates income by staking digital currency (no matter where it is pledged). Or more directly, the pledge economy here can be called a lock-up economy. As long as users lock their own digital currency and then obtain income, it is called a pledge economy.
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The Staking Economy of ETH
The pledge economy of ETH comes from two aspects, one is DeFi (decentralized finance); the other is ETH 2.0.
DeFi (decentralized finance) includes decentralized exchanges (such as Uniswap), decentralized lending agreements (such as Aave), decentralized financial aggregation platforms (such as Yearn Protocol), and decentralized insurance agreements (such as Nexus Mutual) etc. The DeFi protocol is a big part of the ETH pledge economy (lock economy).
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Therefore, in the long run, the number of ETH locked in the DeFi protocol will reach at least 21.8 million (880+1300), accounting for 19.2% of the current total ETH.
（2）ETH 2.0
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As shown below:
As shown below:
But in the long run, the annual rate of return of 4.9% is still high for pledgers, so we have reason to believe that in the long run, the number of ETH pledges will increase. Based on the analysis of various existing articles, it is generally believed that it is reasonable for the pledge rate of ETH to reach 30%-45%. If we take the average value, after the arrival of ETH 2.0, the pledge rate of ETH can reach 37.5% ((30%+45%)/2) in the long run, and the number of pledges will be 42.525 million.
Summarize
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Summarize
Based on the above analysis, in the long run, the number of ETH locked in the DeFi protocol plus the number of ETH pledged in ETH 2.0 can reach 64.325 million, accounting for 56.72% of the current total ETH.
