50% of the time has passed, and the progress bar is 20%, can Ethereum 2.0 go online as promised?

Editor's Note: This article comes fromInfStones（ID：InfStones）, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

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Ethereum 2.0 pledge progress (as of November 16)In the early morning of November 5th, Beijing time, the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract was officially launched, which caught many practitioners concerned about the progress of Ethereum 2.0 off guard.Compared with the grand occasion of staking 700,000 ETH on the testnet (see

ETH2.0, which keeps skipping tickets, is finally approaching this time

), the real token holders on the mainnet are much more cautious. At present, the time has passed halfway, and the pledge amount progress bar has reached less than 20%, which makes us wonder: Can the Ethereum 2.0 mainnet be launched as scheduled?

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https://launchpad.ethereum.org/

Concerns of currency holders: threshold, lock-up, income

The market was not fully prepared for the sudden release of deposit contracts. Most of the media have summarized the list of service providers who have made more voices in the market, but few have actually released usable products, and it can be seen that most of them are still in the testing stage; while those service providers that focus on non-hosting, decentralization, and security , There is no real open source. Obviously, the sudden plan to launch the Ethereum 2.0 mainnet has caught many service providers off guard, and they have not made sufficient preparations for products and services. This makes it still a very high threshold for ETH holders to participate in Ethereum 2.0 pledge things.The most mature "staking service" currently seen: the official Beacon Chain Validator Quick StarterIt is suitable for hardcore players who build their own nodes, run the node through the starter and register the verifier.

Are you willing to lock 32 ETH until two years from now? What new opportunities will emerge during the long "lockdown period"

". Under such a lock-up period, no matter whether we understand and design Ethereum 2.0 pledge from the perspective of mining, staking, or financial products, we cannot obtain a product or service model that is generally acceptable to the public. This creates a very high barrier to entry that prevents more people from participating.

The third point is that the actual pledge yield of ETH2.0 also has great uncertainty. At the initial stage of the mainnet launch, that is, the pledged amount of 520,000 ETH, the corresponding rate of return can reach more than 20% annually, but as the pledged amount gradually increases, the rate of return will gradually decrease. At this time, there is a very embarrassing problem : When the actual rate of return is lower than the expected rate of return when the staker decides to enter the market, the staker wants to leave the market but cannot. Therefore, even though the current annualized rate of return of 21.6% is very attractive to many currency holders, being a "wait and see party" or "wait and see party" may be the best choice at present. On the other hand, although the popular DeFi has cooled down this year, whether there will be Ethereum projects with extremely high yields in the 1-2 years when ETH is locked is also an opportunity cost that ETH pledgers will most likely have to bear .

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• Difficult to have a good prescription: sharing, liquidity, DeFi?

• To address the above thresholds, service providers in the market have proposed various solutions. As mentioned above, due to the rush of time, it is difficult to see mature and practical solutions. Therefore, at present, we can only summarize the news of various external PRs and some research. At present, the direction of service providers' efforts can be divided into three main categories:

Shares, that is, to solve the problem of users with less than 32ETH participating in the pledge

DeFi, that is, to solve the problem of not being able to participate in DeFi after ETH is pledged

(If your institution and plan can indeed achieve decentralized sharing and support future decentralized withdrawals, please contact us^-^)

As far as liquidity solutions are concerned, almost all the solutions seen so far are to issue mapped tokens, and there is no solution that guarantees the arbitrary redemption of ETH (after all, the latter is equivalent to staking your own ETH). The so-called mapping token is actually an equity token, which includes the pledged ETH principal and the redemption right for all future earnings (similar to bonds). Therefore, when Ethereum 2.0 supports withdrawals (implemented in phase 2), whether the mapping token can really redeem the principal and income is the key to measuring the reliability of the mapping token.

It can be expected that all kinds of xETH will be seen flying together in the market (currently known as BETH, rETH, aETH, QETH, etc.), how is the value recognition of these xETH in the short-to-medium term market? Another important test for each family. The purpose of most pledgers getting xETH is to obtain liquidity, so they have a strong willingness to sell in the secondary market. Can the price of xETH be supported to match its endogenous value as much as possible (principal + interest discount) It is a test of market-making ability. Due to the extremely long lock-up period of ETH, the conventional market-making method of relying on arbitrageurs to smooth out the value difference may not be effective.

With the mapping of tokens, the solution to the DeFi problem seems to be obvious: replacing ETH with xETH can easily participate in various DeFi. Therefore, xETH's market competition needs to face both the secondary trading market and the DeFi market.

Can Ethereum 2.0 be launched as promised?

Faced with the above-mentioned problems and the lack of perfect solutions, it is a wise choice for most retail currency holders to be a "waiting party", so it is reasonable that the current ETH pledge ratio is not high.

But the author still has great confidence in the scheduled launch of Ethereum 2.0.

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First, because the solutions of service providers are constantly maturing, the entry rate of funds in the second half of the period will definitely be higher than that in the first half;