Bitcoin's Best Hoarding Window Has Closed?

Old players in the currency circle have heard of the "ahr999 index". This is an indicator invented by an old Weibo player named "ahr999" to guide investors to hoard Bitcoin. In layman's terms, it is an indicator to measure whether the currency price is expensive or cheap.

According to the calculation method of this index, when the ahr999 index is lower than 0.45, it means that the currency price is super cheap and suitable for bottom-hunting, and when the ahr999 index is higher than 1.2, it means that the currency price is a bit expensive and not suitable for buying. Between 0.45 and 1.2 are suitable for fixed investment.

for example:

for example:

On July 9, 2019, the currency price was 12,000 US dollars, and the ahr999 index was as high as 4. That was because the currency price soared in a short period of time, which caused it to be much higher than the fixed investment cost and growth valuation of the past 200 days, so short-term accumulation In order to avoid higher risks, the price of $12,000 is obviously overbought, so it is not suitable to buy Bitcoin in the short term.

On August 17, 2020, the currency price returned to 12,000 dollars, and the ahr999 index was only 1.2. That was because the currency price at that time was only slightly higher than the fixed investment cost and growth valuation of the past 200 days. The same as a year ago, but the stakes are nowhere near as high.

So the price is the same in different periods, but the index may be different.

This index is used by many investors who decide to invest in Bitcoin to guide their own indicators for deciding to invest in Bitcoin.

The website https://ahr999.com/ has the latest index dynamically updated every day. As of writing, the ahr999 index is 1.7, which is already greater than the reference value of 1.2 for hoarding coins. In fact, this index has been greater than 1.2 since October 29, when the price of Bitcoin was $13,259. According to the reference value, Bitcoin is no longer suitable for regular investment since October 29.

ahr999 posted a long article on Weibo on November 5th, arguing that the current round of bitcoin hoarding window has officially closed, suggesting that holders hold their own coins and wait for the price to take off. The blogger also thinks that hoarding coins now does not make much sense. The main reasons are: first, the price of coins is already too high, and second, you can’t buy many coins if you hoard any more.

As soon as the article was published, it caused a great sensation in the circle. Investors who have been hoarding coins for the past two years were delighted to read the article, but friends who missed it for various reasons in the past two years were mixed.

So on November 14, the blogger published another article to further explain the hoarding of coins, mainly to clarify several misunderstandings:

1 "'If you have persisted in hoarding and tried your best in the past two years, then you can relax a bit. Whether to hoard or not hoard, it doesn't make much sense.' If you have persisted in hoarding and tried your best in the past two years, this premise is very important."

2 "If you haven't hoarded in the past two years, that's another question. My answer is that it's not too bad to start at this point in time. After all, the ahr999 index is only 1.6, and the currency price has not broken through the previous high. Although, the most The timing was wrong, but something is better than nothing."

3 "Everyone's situation is different, and the marginal effect on the same thing is also different, so the decision-making will be different. Those who have insisted on hoarding bitcoins in the past two years already have (for themselves) a lot of bitcoins In the future, 10-20% more bitcoins will not mean so much. For those who do not have bitcoins, no matter how much they start hoarding now, they will increase 100% bitcoins, which has a different meaning.

These three paragraphs are the original text of the blog post. I think it is very well written, so I specially quote it to share with you. According to the current situation, unless the unstable factors I wrote about in the previous article broke out and caused the entire market to pull back, otherwise, the chances of Bitcoin returning to $10,000 are already slim.

For us ordinary investors, what we can do now is to improve our ability to make money (this ability is more important than whether we can copy to the bottom), and once the big correction really happens, seize the last opportunity to pick up cheap chips.