Could there be a "black swan" in the next two months?

Today, I opened the US stock market that I haven’t paid attention to for a while, and suddenly found that the Dow Jones index has closed at 29,420 points, which has surpassed the high point of 29,398 points reached on February 14 this year.

Obviously, in the current market, the outlook for the U.S. economy continues to be uncertain, and the number of people infected with the new crown continues to hit new highs. The fact that U.S. stocks can rise to this high level is definitely not supported by economic fundamentals, but because of a series of releases and the market’s determination of the results of the general election. an emotional expression.

In particular, the market has been very optimistic about the outcome of the general election in recent times. But when I saw this situation, I felt a strong uneasiness in my heart. Because I am worried that the market may crash again in the next two months, and once such a crash occurs, it will inevitably directly affect the digital currency market.

After more than a week of contests, most leftist media in the United States directly announced that Biden had won, and many European countries also sent congratulations to Biden. It seems that everyone has gradually formed such an impression that the next president is Biden.

But anyone who knows a little about the current president knows that he is not a person who is willing to let go, and has already started countermeasures at this stage: such as hiring a barrister to prepare to sue some states for ballot counting issues, or replacing the Secretary of Defense. Regarding the move of replacing the Minister of Defense, many people do not understand this approach. In my opinion, this is preparing for war, and in the worst case, he can use the emergency law of war initiation to make special treatment of all events.

And this war is very likely to be a foreign war.

In this regard, among the major countries in the world, our country is one of the few that are highly vigilant. In the past few days, our country's spokesperson has not responded positively to the attitude of the US presidential election, and has avoided commenting on issues related to this. This is a signal.

In addition to Trump himself making preparations for the next step, senior members of his Republican Party also support him. For example, Senate Majority Leader McConnell also issued a statement refusing to recognize or congratulate Biden on being elected president and supporting Trump’s influence on the votes. Disputed states have launched legal challenges.

The next US president will officially take office at the end of January next year, and there are still more than two months before the end of January next year, which gives Trump enough time to initiate various actions.

All these series of events have added a lot of uncertainty to the subsequent transfer of US presidential power.

Once this uncertainty breaks out, coupled with the extremely high risks accumulated by the U.S. stock market under the situation of flooding, a market crash is very likely to occur.

In addition, we should also note that traditionally, around Christmas is the off-season for the US stock market, because this is a major festival in the United States and the market is closed. Therefore, around Christmas, Wall Street funds will be withdrawn from the stock market.

In addition, the end of the year is also the time for all businesses to take inventory and liquidate, and the funds in the market will be very tight.

Therefore, if we associate all these factors together, if this kind of crash does happen, it may happen in mid-to-late December, or even earlier.

Once this market crash occurs, it is very likely that it will be like the February-March this year. When institutional investors withdraw funds from the stock market on a large scale, they will also sell digital currencies on a large scale. But this time, the number of digital currencies in the hands of institutional investors is far more than that in February-March this year. If they join the sell-off, it could lead to another round of bloodbath in the digital currency market.

Therefore, I suggest that investors should enter the market cautiously in the near future, and do not invest large amounts of money even if they buy. I am afraid that the market will really stabilize until at least February next year.