Will Bitcoin become more and more difficult to buy in the future?

Some readers left a message to ask such a question: Institutional investors buy a lot of Bitcoin, will other investors not be able to buy it?

Entering 2020, the move of institutional investors to buy Bitcoin with great fanfare has indeed attracted much attention. Almost every once in a while, there is news about how many Bitcoins XX institutions have increased their holdings. Among these institutions are not only the established digital currency investment fund Grayscale, but also the newcomer MicroStrategy.

Even the recent surge of Bitcoin has been interpreted by many media as due to the buying of institutional investors.

Under such circumstances, it is natural for investors to have questions like the above. Regarding this question, let me first say my judgment: that is definitely not. There are transactions in any market under any circumstances, but it is just a matter of price. Bitcoin will definitely have a good time to sell, and there will definitely be a good time to buy again. It's just that when it's time to buy, I'm afraid many investors may not dare to buy.

Any investment market has cycles and cycles, with both bear markets and bull markets. Since the birth of Bitcoin, it has experienced at least two rounds of obvious bull and bear markets. The peaks of the last two bull markets were in 2013 and 2017 respectively. After the peaks of the two bull markets, Bitcoin has entered a bear market without exception.

The peak of the next round of bull market will not come next year as predicted by many media. I cannot judge, but I believe that the next round of bull market will definitely come. Since the bull market will definitely come, the price of Bitcoin will definitely be higher than the current price. And at the peak of the bull market, the price of Bitcoin will definitely be ridiculously high in the short term.

When the price of Bitcoin is ridiculously high, it is not a value but a bubble. In that case, no matter whether it is a shrewd short-term speculator or a rational value investor, they will throw away and realize it, and only crazy retail investors will rush in to take the order.

When the bubble bursts and the passion burns out, the price of Bitcoin will definitely drop sharply, thus entering a long bear market.

In the bear market after the bull market in 2013, Bitcoin fell from a high of $1,000 to a low of less than $200, a drop of 80%. In the bear market after the bull market in 2017, Bitcoin fell from a high of nearly $20,000 to a minimum of $3,300, a drop of more than 80%.

In the same way, in the bear market after the next round of bull market, Bitcoin will definitely drop sharply. Whether the drop will reach 80% of the previous two times is hard to predict, but I believe it will be deep and not less than 50%.

When Bitcoin enters a long bear market from a bull market, the story that has been repeated countless times in history will be staged again: a large number of retail investors leave the market, the media is pessimistic about Bitcoin, and the currency price continues to refresh investment in round after round of bad news The cognitive lower limit of the reader.

At that time, there were not only bitcoins sold in the market, but also a large number of them, and there were even some speculators playing leveraged futures to sell short - if there were no bitcoins, they would borrow bitcoins to sell them.

So from the perspective of long-term investment, we don't need to worry about whether there will be bitcoins sold in the market. What we really have to ask ourselves is, when there are bitcoins in the market whose prices have fallen so that almost no one cares about them, do we dare to sell them? purchase?

I started writing articles every day in January 2019, when Bitcoin was still hovering below $4,000, and it has been almost 23 months since then. During these 23 months, Bitcoin only briefly surpassed $10,000 in a total of seven months from June to August 2019 and July to November this year. The days add up to less than 3 months actually.

So in fact, counting from 2019 to now, we have 20 months to make a fixed investment when Bitcoin is less than $10,000. During this period, we have enough time and enough opportunities to buy enough Bitcoin. It's just that we insist on achieving the fixed investment?