Bitcoin broke through 100,000 yuan, can you still buy it?

Just yesterday, Bitcoin broke through $15,000, and Bitcoin reaching this price has aroused huge attention in the circle. According to historical data, there were only 17 days in history when the price of Bitcoin was higher than this, and all of these 17 days were within the month from December 7, 2017 to January 10, 2018. And just in this month, Bitcoin reached the peak of the last round of bull market at $19,926 on December 17, the tenth day after it surpassed $15,000 for the first time.

Seeing this, many investors can't help but have this association: In this market, will Bitcoin also reach its peak in a short period of time after exceeding $15,000?

I don't think so, because I think the current market trend is still in the early stage so far, and I don't even plan to do it in the mid-term.

Let's look at the picture below:

This is the trend chart of Bitcoin in the middle and late stages of the last round of bull market. There are two price points worthy of our attention: one is $911 on January 1, 2017, and the other is $5950 on November 3, 2017.

Before the last bull market, the lowest value of Bitcoin was $199 on January 18, 2016.

Therefore, from the perspective of historical data, the overall trend of Bitcoin in the last round of bull market can be roughly divided into three stages:

The first stage was from January 18, 2016 to December 30, 2016. After about 2 years, Bitcoin slowly recovered from the bottom of $199 to $911, and the currency price increased by 4.6 times;

The second stage is from January 1, 2017 to November 3, 2017. After 10 months of consolidation, Bitcoin rose from $911 to $5,950, and the currency price increased by 6.5 times;

The third stage is from November 3, 2017 to December 17, 2017. In just over a month, Bitcoin rose from $5,950 to $19,926, and the price of the currency increased by 3.3 times.

History will not simply repeat, but history will basically follow a similar rhythm. Any bull market basically includes three stages: recovery and consolidation, steady growth, and crazy bursts. This was the case in the last Bitcoin bull market, and it will still be the case in the next round.

Let's take a look at the trend chart of Bitcoin in this market.

From the chart above, we can see that after the last bull market, Bitcoin fell to its lowest point of $3,236 on December 16, 2018. From $3,236 to the current $15,000, after nearly two years, Bitcoin has only increased by 4.6 times, which is basically equivalent to the first stage of the last round of bull market.

If we judge what stage Bitcoin is in just based on this increase, it would be a bit obvious to apply mechanically. We can also judge the current market and its approximate stage from another angle: that is the overall market atmosphere.

In the last round of bull market, from the end of 2016, the entire market began to be coerced by ICOs, and gradually began to heat up, and after a year, this boom was brewing to a high point. Therefore, throughout 2017, the market was in a state of extreme excitement. Because of this state of excitement, it is possible for the market to reach a climax. Without this excitement, it is impossible for the market to reach a climax.

But now our market is obviously not in such a state of excitement. Not only has it not been, but it has experienced several major incidents (such as being locked in high positions by DeFi projects, being unable to withdraw assets due to exchange incidents), and many investors are still anxious. , so the whole market needs a lot of reassurance.

Therefore, from multiple perspectives, I think the current market is still far from the climax that many investors are expecting. Even if there is a real bull market in this round of market, I think there is a high probability that it will not be until next year. According to past experience, there may still be some opportunities for callbacks in this process, but it is difficult to predict when such callbacks will occur and how much they can be called back.

So what should investors do in the current market?

First of all, for Bitcoin, is it still suitable for regular investment? I think it all depends on investors' own expectations for the future.

Some people think that Bitcoin can reach a price of 100,000 US dollars in this round of market. If investors have such optimistic expectations, they can continue to invest now.

But I take a more cautious view on this round of market, thinking that it can probably rise to the range of 20,000-50,000 US dollars, so I have no fixed investment after Bitcoin exceeds 10,000 US dollars.

Compared with Bitcoin, I think Ethereum still has a little bit of buying value. The fixed investment price I have always suggested to everyone is within $400. As of writing, the price of Ethereum is $456. That price point is well over $400, but not by much. Therefore, if investors who have completely short positions in the early stage, I suggest that they can spend a certain amount of money to buy some Ethereum, because Ethereum will also keep up with Bitcoin in the future.