Will ETH go up next month? Should we search for the "next Ethereum"

Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)

, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Hello everyone, I’m Pepe, here he is. Since the National Day holiday, there have been many overseas rumors about the upcoming arrival of eth2.0. Most of the gossip points to the 0 phase of 2.0 will be launched within a few weeks , that is, if nothing unexpected happens, we will see the first version of eth2.0 next month.

This is not groundless. One is that as early as more than three months ago, Ethereum developers revealed that they hope to enter the zero phase in 2020. Another point is yesterday’s overseas media information:

Ethereum 2.0 is almost ready for launch, according to smart contract audit firm Quantstamp. Prior to this, Quantstamp completed an audit of Teku, an Ethereum 2.0 client developed by ConsenSys.

Although almost ready is used in Chinese and English in the news source, a vocabulary that you can understand as the following picture:

But think about the thousand-year-old "Ace Pigeon" next door to us showing its true colors, right? Besides, stage 0 is not a difficult thing to implement, and the audit is almost the same, so we think that there is a high probability that it will be launched this year, and a high probability will be in the next year. moon.

Of course, I still have to repost the friendly reminder from the milk king in the overseas community:

It should be said that there are still quite a few people who don’t pay that much attention to details. The ETH2.0 network that landed this year is just the zero phase—beacon chain, no shard expansion, no smart contracts, and no transactions. It’s like a rough house except for mortgages. Many other functions are not yet available, but I also think that often the market can always inspire some methods, whether it can be traded or not may really not be decided by the Ethereum team, what do you think.

There will be expansion of the underlying fragmentation in phase 1, and the merger and conversion between eth1 and eth2 will gradually begin in phase 1.5 (eth1 is our current eth, and eth2 is the currency in the beacon chain network. At the beginning of phase 0, It can only be generated by one-way conversion of eth, so in a sense, it can be regarded as a test currency filled with real money).

And these two stages, if they go well, may land in one to one and a half years. .

Having said that, but if there is real news of landing next month, we tend to think that it will have a positive impact on the price.

First of all, we are all currency speculators. There are many short-term currencies in the currency circle. What we need is not logic, and we don’t necessarily need demand, but only need some positive events to drive it.

As the second largest cryptocurrency, the community size of ether should not be underestimated. It feels that the popularity index overshadows btc in certain periods of time, and even more than once the big market is driven by ethereum as a main body, so this is a good project progress. It is still easy to attract market attention, drive heat and fomo emotions.

The picture below is a small-scale vote overseas. Almost half of the people think that the launch of 2.0 will push up the price of eth to more than 600U:

Secondly, if it is only good for the launch, if the overall market trend is very confused, it may not have much impact, but this time you need to pay attention to it, it is mortgaged, and the threshold for each mortgage node is at least 32 ETH, which means There are more eth to be locked up for a year and a half. If this order of magnitude is not bad, then even if they have little impact on the market price, they may still drive fomo sentiment and affect the market price. I feel that I can think of those bloggers now. How the Lord will share this part of the data in the future.

In addition, locking positions is profitable. According to some concept sharing from the official, the initial annualized income is 20.3%, and at least 524,288 eth are required to be mortgaged to open the beacon chain:

When the network mortgage exceeds 1 million eth, the yield will drop to 14%. The more mortgaged, the lower the yield.

So how much eth will be mortgaged?

At present, there are about 123,000 addresses holding more than 32 eth:

That is to say, the number of Ethereum that meets the mortgage conditions is around 3.9 million.

Considering that one needs to lock the warehouse for at least one year (still under the expectation that the team will not make progress in the later stage), and the other is that there are still some thresholds for ordinary users to be a node for the time being, it is expected that the initial mortgage amount will not be too high.

I guess the initial stage of going online is between that entry threshold and one million.

In addition, there is no need to worry about not having enough collateral here. There are still quite a lot of big whales on Ethereum. This round of DeFi should be noticed by many players, including Harvest we talked about yesterday. It is that hundreds of millions of funds have been invested without auditing. Chong, we can’t imagine the world of the rich. I also have a guess. In addition to the arbitrage of some coins in these defi by the project party, there may be really big investors who have so much assets that they can only be placed on the chain. It is not convenient in China. In fact Many places in foreign countries are inconvenient, and large amounts of "cash out" are subject to high taxes, so for them, throwing money into this kind of contract is not a matter of entanglement.

Well, the above is the main content of today. If you are interested, you can pay attention to the dynamics of 2.0 next month. However, I also tend to think that the launch of 2.0 is just a short-term hype point. In addition, you may also pay attention to the main focus of eth2 in the ecology. .0 concept or the trend of two-tier network projects.

Finally, I would like to talk about a question that I have been thinking about recently-should I look for the "next Ethereum"?

Thinking of this problem is also a project that coin lovers generally use to benchmark against Ethereum this year-that is Polkadot, and the price has also performed well recently.

From the current situation, not to mention surpassing, it seems that no one can really be said to be able to stand on the same line with Ethereum, so instead of trying to find the "next eth", is it better to just hold on to the ether? Is this big white horse more cost-effective?

Although the performance of ETH is still insufficient, it cannot be denied that both the community and the product innovation in the ecology have great advantages. Today Vitalik also specifically mentioned it in his online speech at the Wanxiang Blockchain Conference:

But there may be two more things to watch out for:

1. When the trend of a currency goes out to become a white horse, when the public makes more optimistic voices, it may still be strong, but it usually means that the possibility of its excess returns is decreasing, such as holding ether at certain stages this year It is normal to bet on ecological projects that cannot win. This is not only in the currency circle, but also in other financial markets.

Therefore, there are better options for friends who are looking for more excitement and sense of accomplishment. According to this logic, should we look for the next eth, the next dot or the next one? I think it is still necessary .

The crypto world is now considered a speculative paradise, but will it always be driven by speculation? We don't know, which may also mean that we are still in the early days, so I also think it is still too early to say that the overall situation has been decided. Who knows in the future? The big white horses in the traditional financial market are all supported by performance logic, but in the encrypted world. . If it's just because there will be fewer coins in circulation, and because there is a next receiver, I feel that the support is still a bit weak.

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