The mid-to-long-term layout of Bitcoin once again gained a thousand-point space, and the follow-up layout started
Short-term market interpretation and operation suggestions:
The market has given us the opportunity to get out of the mid-to-long-term layout. Overall, Bitcoin’s profit is 1,000 points, and it hits below the 11,000 line again. Yes, when we laid out long-term and long-term orders, we said that the market will give us the opportunity to make a profit in the long-term layout, but it is only the opportunity to make a profit. If we want to expand again, it is very difficult, not to mention impossible. Yes, so medium and long-term long-term long-term profits are out, so don't be too greedy! Just follow the trend in the next market! Friends who need real-time guidance can add shenwy886 for guidance, and I will do my best to help!
Operation suggestion:
Operation suggestion:
(Short-term, medium- and long-term layout, just stop profit in time when the point is reached, remember not to be too greedy)
2. 10400-10500 first-line layout multiple orders to enter the market, stop loss default, target 10800-10750 first-line
4. The market is changing rapidly, and the strategies are time-sensitive. They are for reference only. Reprinting of exclusive strategies is strictly prohibited!
4. The market is changing rapidly, and the strategies are time-sensitive. They are for reference only. Reprinting of exclusive strategies is strictly prohibited!
ETH operation suggestion:
(Short-term, medium- and long-term layout, just stop profit in time when reaching the point, must not be too greedy, leading to profit taking)
2. 358-360 entry layout long order, stop loss default, target 375-380
3. 400-390 entry layout empty order, default stop loss, target 328-317
(Short-term, medium- and long-term layout, just stop profit in time when reaching the point, must not be too greedy, leading to profit taking)
4. The market is changing rapidly, and the strategies are time-sensitive. They are for reference only. Reprinting of exclusive strategies is strictly prohibited!
4. The market is changing rapidly, and the strategies are time-sensitive. They are for reference only. Reprinting of exclusive strategies is strictly prohibited!
"The same profit and loss range, but the final result is different" caused by the difference in the difficulty of making a profit, but the difference in loss and profit caused by the difference in the order volume of a single transaction.
If you place more orders on a loss-making order, the natural loss will be large; on the contrary, the more orders you place on a profitable order, the natural profit will be large; if we keep a constant position, the profit and loss will be the same.
Moreover, if it is really the difference between the difficulty of profit and loss, it will not help us in any practical way except to warn us not to make transactions. But if the difference between positions is more important, it will be even more inspiring for us to do transactions. It tells us: we should try our best to avoid larger loss positions and pursue greater profit positions.
How to make profits easier to achieve
In order to discuss better, the author first quantifies a concept to measure the gap between the order volume of profit orders and loss orders: the ratio of profit and loss to positions.
First define the profit and loss position ratio = position at profit/position at loss. When it is less than 1, equal to 1 and greater than 1, our trading environment is completely different.<1
1: Profit and loss position ratio
If we make a transaction, place an order of 10 lots, and end up with a loss; do another transaction, place an order of 1 lot, and end up making a profit, then, if the two are added together, the profit point of the latter will be greater than the loss of the former 10 times the overall profit.
Therefore, it is extremely difficult to obtain stable profits when the profit-loss position ratio is less than 1. In addition, the larger the transaction, the greater the probability of loss! Because the larger the position, the greater the pressure, and it is easier to panic when you are losing money, and even increase your position continuously, resulting in larger and larger losses; while in a profitable state, you are worried about the market turning around and rush to cash in profits, resulting in missing a large order On the other hand, it is difficult to meet the basic requirements of trading: "cut off losses and let profits surge".
As for transactions with small positions, because the profit and loss range is not large, it is easier to deal with it rationally. When you lose money, you should pay for it; when you make money, you can hold what you should take. to gratifying profits.
Therefore, if we want to do a good job in trading, we must first avoid the situation of "profit-loss position ratio < 1", keep the position as constant as possible, and achieve "profit-loss position ratio = 1".
It is not easy to do this. It is easier for us to agree with a simple fund management method: if you grasp a small order, your position will be smaller; if you grasp a large order, your position will be larger.
It's a pity that when the market is running, we don't consider our feelings at all; whether the order can make a profit in the end has nothing to do with our feeling of greater or lesser certainty. According to the above analysis, they are even inversely proportional to each other, so , we should never deploy positions because of this, and put ourselves in a situation where the ratio of profit to loss is <1.
Two: Profit and loss position ratio = 1
If we don't adopt the method of "holding the small, the position is small, and grasping the big, the position is large" and the corresponding plan, how should we deal with the relationship between the trading method and the position setting?
First of all, don't make transactions with small confidence, only make transactions with great confidence, which is commonly said "don't do unintelligible market conditions". The reason is also very simple: Since the grasp is small, why do you have to do it? Is there still a lack of opportunities in this market?
Secondly, make sure large transactions and maintain a constant position. Only in this way can the stability of the overall results of long-term transactions be guaranteed. The long-term result at this time has nothing to do with luck or psychological endurance, but only depends on our ability to grasp the market.
This is the deep logic of systematic trading and quantitative trading: trading decisions depend on the trend of the market itself and our interpretation of the trend, and are not affected by emotions and attitudes, and are not driven by emotions. Let the final trading results reflect our trading ability rather than other factors.
Three: Profit and loss position ratio > 1
When we have struggled from "profit-loss position ratio < 1" to "profit-loss position ratio = 1" and no longer make it so difficult to make profits, we hope to achieve "profit-loss position ratio > 1" to make profits easier.
This is what we really mean when we discuss money management. You may find it strange that since the method and position are determined, how can it be possible to take a larger position when making a profit?
It is impossible for us to predict which order will be profitable, but the important thing is that even if we cannot know the final result of a specific transaction in advance, we can still achieve a profit-loss position ratio > 1, and there are more than one ways to achieve it.
