Bitcoin's long-lost surge, how to view the impact of US stocks

Bitcoin had a long-lost "big rise" yesterday. The reason why it is called a big rise is because the trading days with a single-day increase of more than 3.3% can be traced back to 40 days ago, so it is not an exaggeration to describe it as a big rise. It took advantage of the trend and rushed directly above $10,800, but it seems that there is a trend of rising and falling.

Regarding the rising factors, the answer given by the market is that U.S. stocks rose sharply last night. We have always said before that U.S. stocks and currency prices should not be completely tied together. In fact, the two have always behaved like this. Sometimes when there is a big rise , Bitcoin is unmoved, and sometimes it just follows when it falls, and sometimes it fluctuates with gold. The basis for judging it is easy to confuse people, and it seems that there is a lack of constant judgment standards.

We have to look at this standard from many aspects. According to the original positioning of Bitcoin in the financial market, it is an anti-inflation and anti-risk financial product. The economic environment is in the logic of normal circumstances, and it is not currently in such an environment.

U.S. stocks have risen so far this year, relying on the conditions of the Federal Reserve’s massive release of water and the U.S. printing money. At this time, technology stocks in the U.S. stock market have the same status as gold for investors. At this time, technology stocks are less affected by the epidemic. , and even the performance rose very impressively, which attracted the influx of funds from investors.

It should be noted here that it is not the value of US stocks, but the value of technology stocks. There has also been a wave of corporate bankruptcy in US stocks this year. In the industry, allowing these companies to withdraw from the stock market will not hold back the U.S. stock index, and the U.S. side doesn’t care now, as long as technology stocks can keep U.S. stocks rising and the numbers look good. Although it is an act of deception, but in fact they are doing so now.

Again, the rise in U.S. stocks shows that there is still money in the current market. For gold and Bitcoin, as long as the market is inflated, the price of any product will rise accordingly, especially for financial products. Everyone must have a place to go for their money. Of course, this It is also the result of the guidance of the governments of various countries. To guide money into financial products, otherwise it will cause price rises, which is a social problem, and financial inflation can at least be rescued through financial means in the later stage. As for the effect, it is unknown, but it can As you can imagine, it will take a lot of time and energy for the world economy to return to normal, and it will not happen overnight.

Here I would like to specifically mention that my country’s water release situation is the slightest in the world. The Fed’s large water release in the early stage led to the release of water by other countries’ central banks, but we did not follow suit. This can be seen from the performance of the housing market and stock market this year. The stock market and housing market It has always been the main inflow of Chinese capital. If we release water seriously, the prices of the real estate market and the stock market will have risen to the sky.

But in fact, some time ago, it was deliberately controlled to crack down on unhealthy capital flow to the stock market and housing market, so many people complained about the stock market, saying that other countries are rising, why we are not rising, this is mainly from a long-term perspective. Among them, it is not about who can stand out in this situation, but who has less loss than who, can recover faster than who, and can occupy the more important right to speak at that time.

In short, from the current perspective of macro factors, the rhythm of Bitcoin is indeed difficult to grasp. The main reason is that the Bitcoin market is in a relatively awkward position. It is said that this market is not small, and the whole can still follow the changes of some macro factors. To say that this market is big is actually not that big. Many bitcoin spot stocks are in a long-term static situation, and they are often affected by the manipulation of large investors.

For Bitcoin, we must look at it comprehensively. It is best not to be superstitious about a specific factor, otherwise it is easy to be led by the nose. In addition to macro factors, the banker’s control factor, and the overall distribution of chips in the market are also very important.

For example, this is the ratio of the number of long-short bitcoin holders on OK. It can be seen that the long-short ratio has been declining, which means that from yesterday to today when the price is rising, the number of people who are long on OK is decreasing, while The number of short sellers is increasing.

Under such circumstances, is the price expected to rise? In fact, there are still some. The more people who are short-sellers, the more short-selling chips accumulate, and sometimes the dealer will directly pull the market and liquidate the position, but this can only be used as a contingency factor.

We can see the specific data on the distribution of chips and the market’s single preference. It stands to reason that the more people who sell short, it means that the current market lacks rising chips and is accompanied by pressure from short positions. Logically speaking, the trend is to be short. Mainly. But in this case, the banker may pull the market and burst the position because of our experience in the currency circle, which cannot be directly expressed like data, so those who have experience in this field will use it in their own discretion, and those who lack experience in this area even Knowing this logic from others, the resonance is relatively weak, and you still need to pay more attention when watching the market and making orders.

Back to the market, yesterday was the first day of the opening of this week, and the market went straight up, which is not a relatively safe situation. If it rises directly in the first week, it means that there must be sufficient support in the future, and according to the current environment, it is doubtful whether there is sufficient support.

From the perspective of the medium and long-term cycle, it is currently at the support line formed by the previous three peaks. It seems that it is still entangled in this position and will not fall below so easily, but we still need to be cautious about this position.

In terms of MACD, the DIF and DEA lines are already parallel to the 0 axis. If the high position is parallel, it still needs to digest energy. Secondly, if the position is confirmed to fall below the support line, then there will be a chance to look at the position below 10,000.

The hourly line pulled quite quickly yesterday, so that the short-term moving average of 5/10 and the 30-day moving average were too far apart. Secondly, the trend of K-line and MACD has actually formed a divergence, and MACD is still dead cross, so in the short term It is necessary to retrace first to consume the energy of divergence and dead cross. If it can return to the 30-day moving average, it happens to be in resonance.

For the upper pressure level in the day, first look at 10,800 US dollars, and pay attention to whether it can stand firm. For the lower support level, first look at 10,600 US dollars.