The coins of new and old leeks have all fallen, which ones can rise back?
From last night to now, there have been waves of blows from the currency market.
First, Bitcoin staged a roller coaster market, with both long and short bursts, and the amount of liquidation in the contract market within 1 hour was as high as 125 million US dollars. At 11 o'clock this morning, the mainstream currencies led by XRP and ETH began to fall, triggering a further correction in the market. As of press time, mainstream currencies have fallen by 4%-9%.
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Data from: Contract Emperor
Under the general decline of the market, some DeFis that have fluctuated and fallen for several days have made a full correction. Among the 30 major DeFi coins counted by Feixiaohao, 26 coins went down within 24 hours, only 4 rose slightly, and the rest fell from 1% to 20%.
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Double suppression of profit taking and resistance zone, public currency pullback
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Image from:Yitian House
In this regard, the analystYi TianAccording to technical analysis, in the past two weeks, the 12,000 mark has served as the boundary between long and short, and the competition has been fierce. On August 17th and 18th, the daily line fell after the big yang pulled up, directly recovering the gains of the previous day. Therefore, the currency price "closed" within two hours at key points. Fighting each other" is normal.
Driven by the weakening of Bitcoin, the vast majority of currencies in the market have followed suit, and none of them were spared.
In this regard, OKEx analyst Charles believes that, in fact, there is no abnormally bad information on the news, and this trend is more of a market behavior. Since July 21, the currency price has risen sharply in just one month and has accumulated a large number of profit-making positions. Among them, Bitcoin in the first echelon has increased by 36%, and Ethereum has increased by nearly 90%. Some Defi concept currencies such as LINK has risen more than 200% during this period.
In addition to the large accumulation of profit taking, Bitcoin has also entered an important resistance zone (as shown in the figure below). Under the dual influence of profit taking and resistance zone, it is naturally a high probability event that the market will fall under pressure.
Charles specifically emphasized that the trend in recent days is actually a "repeat" of the trend on June 1. At that time, the currency price also suddenly rose rapidly during the consolidation trend, and broke through the upper edge of the consolidation range, but the trading volume could not continue to increase when it rose, which indicated that the market had insufficient funds to actively follow up at that time, and the upper part encountered a large Technical selling pressure. In addition, the kinetic energy indicator MACD in the same period showed an obvious top divergence, which means that the price rise runs counter to the internal driving force, which eventually led to a sharp rise in the currency price and then a sharp drop.
Look at Ethereum again. According to Yitian’s observation, on August 17th and 18th, the rise of Ethereum linked to Bitcoin achieved a wave of temptation, the highest point reached the 445 line, and then fell back, and the lowest point reached the 415 line. In its MACD indicator, the current alternating direction of long and short is unknown, the upper suppression level is at the 430 line, and the support level is at the 415.78 line in the coin holder chart.
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How long will it be sideways? Where is the next rising sector?
The majority of investors are more concerned about whether the price in the market outlook can continue to be long and reach new highs again?
Yi Tian believes, "This is inevitable. At present, BTC's daily Bollinger Bands are still opening upwards, and the moving average systems are also diverging upwards along the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. It can be seen that the general trend of Bitcoin is still bullish. But in the short term It will build a bottom near the 12,000 mark, and then continue upward after completion.”
Charles also said, "This kind of adjustment is likely to be a short-term benign adjustment, so don't be overly bearish on the market outlook. It is recommended that the market outlook focus on the first-line support of 10670 (BTC/USDT perpetual), which can be regarded as the mid-term long-short division of the market As long as there is no clear fall below this price, all pullbacks can be regarded as short-term adjustments, and the main operation idea is to buy every pullback.”
Kang Kang, an analyst at New bloc Capital, is bullish on Bitcoin from the background of the global economy.
"In the second half of the year, the geopolitical conflicts of the Sino-US trade war continued, and the background of the economic crisis and quantitative easing remained unchanged. Therefore, the demand for global safe-haven assets remained strong. Currently, gold and silver, which have both safe-haven and anti-inflation properties, are in a shock adjustment stage, it is expected that BTC will also fluctuate in the near future, and it is expected to last for 1 to 3 months. Combined with the trend of global financial assets, it is bullish in the long term.”
Regarding the opportunities that investors should pay attention to, Kangkang believes that the current market value of Bitcoin is at a relatively low position (59.5%). Therefore, the next wave can mainly focus on Bitcoin, the old mainstream currencies that have not followed the rise in the second round, such as XRP, LTC and some old altcoins, as well as Filecoin, which was also popular some time ago.
Regarding the follow-up trend of DeFi, Su Ye, the founder of BlockArk, believes that this wave of independent DeFi market has just finished the fish head market. The fish head market belongs to the Ethereum ecology. Next, these tokens will continue to pull back, while the fish body market It is still there, but it belongs to the major public chain DeFi.
"The 'potential stocks' I am still optimistic about on Ethereum include DeFi protocols such as aggregators, two-layer networks, and cross-chains, which are more applicable than the previous wave of DeFi applications."
