The growth logic of various assets

The surge in the overall market of digital currencies in the past few days has made the industry lively. Yesterday, the highest price of Bitcoin exceeded 11,000 US dollars, and rotation among various mainstream currencies began.

This situation confused many investors. Investors who were short-lived began to chase higher prices. Investors who already held coins watched other people's coins rise, but their own coins did not move at all, and began to think about changing positions to chase higher prices.

In this regard, I suggest that you still stay calm. For investors who are short-lived, I still think that it is still a good choice to invest in Ethereum now; for investors who already hold coins, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum in their hands, I think they must be cautious in swapping positions to chase the rise, and take a good hand Don't envy the plate rotation. Now, if you still have money left, try your best to find a variety that is valuable but whose price has not risen significantly.

In fact, during this period of time, not only the currency circle is very lively, but other investment markets have also started to rotate. After a sharp drop in the past few days, A shares have stabilized and rose moderately in the past two days. The precious metal market is even more powerful. Gold broke through the highest point in history in one fell swoop. Although it has fallen slightly in the past two days, it is not far from the $2,000 mark. Silver has followed the pace of gold and started to make up for it. It has risen to nearly $25 .

With all kinds of investment markets doing well, in the early morning of July 28th, Beijing time, the United States announced a new round of relief plan for the new crown epidemic, with a scale of one trillion US dollars. And not long before the United States announced the plan, Europe also released 750 billion euros.

Obviously, the new round of water release is superimposed on the Fed's previous water release, and the effect of water release has begun to spread to various markets.

There are two main reasons why I think that the water release effect has begun to spread:

One is that the U.S. stocks with huge bubbles actually "resurrected from the dead". The Dow Jones Index fell from its peak close to 30,000 points to 20,000 points, which was only a 30% drop, and now it has slowly risen to 26,000 points. The only explanation for the stock market to get out of such a market is to release water when the bubble itself is huge, and both employment and economic data are very bad.

The second is that gold has broken through its historical high. Although it has fallen back slightly, I think the upward trend of gold will not change in the short term. It will be a matter of time before it breaks through $2,000.

The trend of gold can reflect the current situation of the macro environment and people's expectations for the future. The rise of gold generally means two things: one is that the macro environment has deteriorated sharply, and even a serious geopolitical crisis or various crises have occurred; the other is that the government is printing money on a large scale at the economic and financial level, and interest rates continue to be low .

The last round of gold out of the historical high occurred in 2008 after the financial crisis. After the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented quantitative easing policy and lowered interest rates to 1%. In this case, gold hit an all-time high in 2011, then retreated after the Fed announced the end of quantitative easing and began slowly raising interest rates.

And it was in that unprecedented release of water that my country ushered in a big bull market in real estate.

And now, history is repeating itself.

Judging from the current US economy, there are almost no bright spots. The only "bright spot" is the continuous rise of the stock market. This year is another presidential election year. In order to maintain this only "bright spot", the current US president will not make the stock market too ugly before the vote, so he will do everything possible to prevent the Fed from raising interest rates.

In addition, the U.S. economy has been hit hard by the impact of the epidemic, and the Fed will not start raising interest rates until the economy improves.

in this case,

in this case,At least the precious metals led by gold are unlikely to reverse their gains in the next year or two. The digital currency market will also benefit from the release of water and maintain a generally upward trend, but I still think that even if it rises, it will not rise to a very high position.

In an article late last year,I think even if this round can get out of a small bull market, the highest price of Bitcoin will be between 20,000 and 50,000 US dollars, and I still maintain this view.