Can DeFi bring a bull market? How much can Ethereum go up?
Today, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to rise. The price of Ethereum has risen to $323, while the price of Bitcoin has risen to nearly $11,000.
The voices of various media about the arrival of a "bull market" have further increased. I still suggest that everyone should not care whether this market is a bull market, but just seize the fixed investment.
Judging from the current price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bitcoin has exceeded 10,000 US dollars, exceeding the fixed investment price I set, and Ethereum is not far from the fixed investment price I set at 400 US dollars. If the current trend continues , it may reach 400 US dollars in less than a month, so the time window left for us to make a fixed investment is not too much, I hope you will cherish it.
Of course, it is also possible that the current momentum comes to a screeching halt and the ETH price pulls back down again. That couldn't be better for ordinary investors, so we will continue to invest.
I have always believed that the next real bull market must have a scene similar to the 2017 ICO. In the tide of ICO, as long as people who know about ICO don’t need to understand technology or master complex operations, they can participate with almost no threshold. There are no implementation obstacles in the process of participation: you can buy Ethereum at any exchange, and you can participate in investment with two clicks of the mouse on the ICO project website.
It is this kind of application with both practical scenarios and no threshold that makes blockchain technology truly accessible to the public, makes Ethereum an object that everyone chases and buys, and makes the price of Ethereum soar like a rocket. God has become the biggest and most fundamental engine of the bull market.
However, since then, no application like ICO has appeared on Ethereum. Ethereum does not, let alone other public chains:
In the older generation of projects, Bitcoin has no technical hope, only the eternal consensus supports its price; EOS has no amazing scene.
Among the emerging projects, only Polkadot and COSMOS can be counted. The latter basically only has the strength of a follower, while the former has a bullish momentum, but the prospect is not very clear in my opinion.
The only hope in the entire circle is Ethereum. Now everyone is focusing all their attention on DeFi, and it seems that DeFi can drive the next wave of bull market. Whether DeFi can become the engine of the next wave of bull market in the future can only be witnessed by time, but at least for now, I don’t see that DeFi has such conditions.
First of all, compared with the environment of the last round of ICO, the current environment is much harsher:
In the last round of ICO, ordinary people could buy digital currency at any exchange, but now outsiders have to find a way to buy digital currency, which itself is a big threshold.
In addition, the way people participated in the last round of ICO is very simple, just two clicks of the mouse. But now the threshold for people to participate in DeFi is quite high:
First of all, the various popular DeFi games such as mortgages, loans, and synthetic assets are almost all overseas projects. Some of the official websites of these projects have Chinese and many have no Chinese at all. This is a major language barrier;
Secondly, to participate in these games, you must have an Ethereum wallet, and carefully go through one step after another, and you can start playing after paying the full handling fee. If any step is wrong, all previous efforts will be wasted, which is not a small obstacle for beginners;
Finally, the congestion of Ethereum is very serious now, and a relatively common operation step requires a handling fee of about 10 US dollars.
Therefore, from all aspects, the current DeFi is not comparable to the previous ICO.
If you insist on what this wave of market is, I think it can barely be regarded as a preview of Ethereum 2.0.
Since this wave of market is not considered a bull market in my opinion, how far can it go? In my opinion, the biggest effect of this wave of market is to let people see the hope of Ethereum and see new growth points on Ethereum, and this growth point will continue to ferment before Ethereum 2.0 lands. Therefore, it is likely to be like a slow booster, pushing Ethereum forward step by step.
Looking at it in this way, it may be difficult for the price of Ethereum to fall to the previous $200 or even lower, but it may not be easy to rise to more than $600.
The price of $600 is acceptable for an Ethereum that can continue to give confidence to the industry and let the industry see hope.
I still think the real big bull market will be when Ethereum 2.0 really lands 4 years later. Before that, Ethereum was just continuously accumulating energy, ready for the next wave of bull market performance.
