The big pie is over ten thousand, the ether is flying, is it the bull or the wolf?
Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
Produced | Odaily (ID: o-daily)
However, unlike the previous two times when big pies sucked blood and mainstream copycats were weak, Ethereum took the lead in breaking through the February high of $288 on July 25, breaking through $300 all the way, and reaching a peak of $329, leading the rise with absolute strength. Other mainstream currencies also rose to varying degrees during the week. On the contrary, Bitcoin was late, and it was not until yesterday afternoon that it finally started to rise sharply.
Such a general rise in the market is undoubtedly a shot in the arm, and the horn of "the bull market is coming" sounded again.
At around 18:00 on July 26, BTC rose strongly, breaking through $100 million perfectly, and then quickly fell back below $10,000 after touching $10,163. At around 9:00 am on July 27, BTC continued to increase in volume, reaching a peak of 10,323 U.S. dollar; the bullish pioneer ETH still led the market strongly, with the daily line out of the "seven consecutive suns", and the currency price hit a new high in 12 months.
"If it's really a bull market, it should have just started right now." Weibo's big V "Blockchain William" said to Odaily.
Whether we are at the beginning of a new round of bull market is still inconclusive, but one thing is clear, different from the previous two times, this time after Bitcoin experienced a sideways market for nearly two months, the market was driven by DeFi Rising demand for ETH spurred an increase in the price of ETH, which in turn pushed Bitcoin past the $100 million mark.
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"Blast you" did not discuss, this week is simply "312" of the "Air Force"
In the past week, the Air Force suffered "heavy casualties", and the more it increased its position, the worse it became.
Coin data shows that in the past 24 hours, nearly 393 million US dollars have been liquidated across the network. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance-BTC worth 53.04 million US dollars. More than 22,000 investors became victims of liquidation.
Among them, BTC had the most liquidation in 24 hours, up to 260 million US dollars, ETH had a 24-hour liquidation of 39.01 million U.S. dollars, EOS had a 24-hour liquidation of 2.06 million U.S. dollars, LTC had a 24-hour liquidation of 2.29 million U.S. dollars, BCH, BSV, XRP and other mainstream currencies The value of the liquidation amounted to 3.95 million US dollars.
On the eve of Bitcoin breaking through $10,000, the bearish sentiment in the currency market was high, and after ETH broke through $300, the belief of the Air Force became firmer. Coin data shows that ETH 24 hours the entire network liquidation 39.03 million US dollars, a total of 5800 people liquidation.
In the past week, the open interest of Ethereum futures soared, with the open interest increasing from $783 million to $1.092 billion, an increase of nearly 40%, and a record high; the open interest of Ethereum options also surged, from $182 million to $1.092 billion. 281 million US dollars, an increase of 54.3%, also hitting a record high.
The ETH open interest short order liquidation data has also increased significantly in the past few days.
The following is a comparison of BTC empty orders and ETH empty order liquidation data in a single day since July 23: From the 23rd to the 25th, ETH continued to rise, and the empty order liquidation remained high, and the data even exceeded BTC for a time. Until recently Bitcoin broke through 10,000 blood sucking in two days.
On July 23, ETH empty orders liquidated $80.79 million, and BTC empty orders liquidated $84.82 million;
On July 24, ETH empty orders liquidated $25.81 million, and BTC empty orders liquidated $33.11 million;
On July 25, ETH empty orders liquidated $17.49 million, and BTC empty orders liquidated $6.66 million;
On July 26, ETH empty orders liquidated $76.54 million, and BTC empty orders liquidated $210 million;
On July 27, ETH empty orders liquidated $20.61 million, and BTC empty orders liquidated $68.08 million.
This speaks volumes for investors' enthusiasm for Ethereum.
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The DeFi craze is a major driver of the bull market
The market generally believes that the DeFi token carnival is the main driving force for Bitcoin to break through $10,000: DeFi and ETH 2.0 drive ETH to rise, which in turn stimulates BTC to break through $10,000.
On June 16th, Compound launched lending mining for the first time, and various mortgage agreements competed to imitate it, setting off a wave of "Yield Farming" coin issuance. Last weekend, the governance token YFI issued by the DeFi aggregation income agreement yearn.finance exploded with over 100% news. It exploded the major WeChat communities and Moments, and once again pushed DeFi tokens to the cusp of public opinion.
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DeFi Locked ETH Quantity
Huobi Institute believes that the main reason for the rise of ETH is the market. From a fundamental point of view, ETH has the recent prosperity of the DeFi market and the expected development of Ethereum 2.0. The prosperity of the DeFi market mainly promotes ETH in several ways:
First of all, in DeFi, a large amount of ETH is required to be locked, and a large number of locked positions will lead to a decrease in the circulation of ETH, which has a boosting effect on ETH;
Second, the interest rates of many DeFi projects are very high, prompting some users to buy ETH to participate, further benefiting ETH.
In addition, the prosperity of the DeFi market has led to an increase in GAS fees, further expanding the income of miners, and the willingness of miners to hold ETH may be strengthened.
Another 6 analysts and investors also explained to us the logic behind this rise from the news, capital and technical aspects.
William, the chief researcher of OKEx Research, believes that from a fundamental point of view, the DeFi concept is the main driving force for this rise, led by ETH and driving the overall rise of the cryptocurrency market including BTC. Since June, the locked-up market value of DeFi has risen from US$1 billion to the current US$3 billion, which is a very rapid growth.
In the "post-halving era", the cryptocurrency market is seriously lacking in "good topics". From the current point of view, with the success of DeFi projects such as Maker and Compound, DeFi is already one of the few "hope of the whole industry", focusing on "DeFi Ecosystem". "The concept of ETH was sought after by the market, and then led to the rise of BTC.
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Image source: OKEx
Coin CMO Mr. Shi also believes that the rise of Bitcoin is driven by ETH and DeFi, "In fact, the leader is not Bitcoin, but the second one, Ethereum, which brings the hot DeFi and ETH 2.0. Story expectations. The vast majority of DeFi projects are based on Ethereum. The expectation of ETH2.0 has given the currency circle a chance to tell a story. The world economic environment is in a stage of flooding. The future can be expected, and the bull market needs imagination Ability."
Li Zhe, the founder of Free Capital, believes that the main reason for this rise is that the bull market in the stock market has entered the second half. Regardless of whether the US stock market or the A-share market, the odds are not suitable, and in addition to the recent consolidation period, there are many profit-making pockets income. Enter the field of digital currency with more reasonable cost performance. The second reason is that the relatively popular DeFi projects in the early stage have indeed gained several times the increase even though the fundamentals are not enough to support them, while the mainstream currency has been trading sideways at a low level, and the second round belongs to the valuation restoration of the mainstream currency.
Odaily senior analyst Kang Kang believes that the main logic of this wave of rise is the price comparison effect, the global quantitative easing policy and the influence of some geopolitical factors.
As can be seen from the figure, affected by this year's loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy, global financial assets, including US stocks, A shares, precious metals and some commodities, have risen significantly, basically breaking away from the previous period. The shock range, especially gold and silver, has recently been affected by some geopolitical aspects and has risen rapidly, and gold has broken through the historical high of 1921 US dollars.
Compared with Bitcoin, which has some hedging and speculative attributes, it has been sideways for more than a quarter recently. With global financial assets rising, it is a relatively "cheap" asset, which also brings Bitcoin Here comes the upward momentum.
From a technical point of view, at the weekly level, 312 has almost released the largest amount of energy in history this week, indicating that the change of hands at this stage is extremely high, and panic selling has affected the distribution of chips, causing some historical support and pressure levels to be invalid. , so we try to use "312" as the dividing line to pay attention to the price of Bitcoin.
Going back to the daily level, we can find that the daily level of Bitcoin has fluctuated for more than a quarter. When it effectively breaks through the shock range, based on past experience, there will be a good increase.
From the perspective of the monthly line, if we want to redefine a new cycle after 312, then the current monthly trend is relatively healthy, and there is no obvious acceleration of heavy volume or peaking signals such as long shadow lines.
Finally, Kangkang said that from the perspective of the logic of the currency circle, the current market value of Bitcoin accounts for 61.6%, which is at a low position since this year, and there is a certain room for upward movement.
Huobi Research Institute analyzed the logic of Bitcoin’s rise from the inflow of funds, “Greyscale Bitcoin Trust announced the suspension of sales at the end of June, but announced its resumption on July 10. In the past week, the holdings of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust continued to grow , adding a total of 2,030 bitcoins (approximately $20 million in value).”
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Can the bull market continue? What is the follow-up trend?
After understanding why the stock has risen, "where can it rise" and "should it be a callback?" must be the most concerned issues for everyone.
Huobi Research Institute analyzed to Odaily: At present, the rising market driven by Ethereum is strong. Once Bitcoin stabilizes at $10,000, investors will have sufficient trading confidence, and the future market of Bitcoin can be expected. From the perspective of the future market, the bullish trend cannot be reversed in an instant. If it stands firm at $10,000, the market may continue. The top 10300-10500 is the bargaining zone for Bitcoin. Higher target bit.
"We can also be sure that the funds are entering the market, and the story of DeFi has just begun. In the future, the maturity of blockchain infrastructure projects like ETH2.0 and Polkadot will make DeFi more playable. If it is large, it will form a closed loop of capital and form a more prosperous and sustainable bull market.” Huobi Institute analyzed.
However, Huobi Research Institute reminds investors that the market has already risen very high, and it is not recommended that investors blindly chase higher prices, and they should control the impulse to "full their positions when they see the market coming".
As for the long pioneer ETH, most analysts said that ETH has risen too sharply, reminding investors to pay attention to the risk of ETH’s callback, “ETH is rising too fast now, and there may be a callback in the future. The upward trend has come to an end, and there is currently no obvious signal of a downward trend in the market, and we should continue to observe the market in the future," William said.
Huobi Research Institute also believes: "ETH has now formed an upward trend, but the bullish force is too fast, and there is still a lot of pressure on the top. If the market rebounds, it will be healthy. If ETH continues to maintain a strong upward trend, then This round of rally may not be sustainable.”
However, there are also views that ETH may continue to rise in the future.
Weibo celebrity "Blockchain William" believes that: ETH has been "plated", and the amount of locked positions is getting higher and higher. It is very profitable to exchange ETH for DAI mining, and it will naturally increase. This process has not yet seen the momentum to stop, and ETH should still rise in the market outlook. If the market of Bitcoin is good, there is no resistance in sight.
Uncle Shi is very optimistic about the future trend of ETH: "I don't see the possibility of a major correction before ETH 2.0 lands. As for how high it will rise, it's still the same sentence. There must be room for imagination in a bull market. First, see 600 USDT."
Odaily reminds investors that in the past three months, Bitcoin has broken through the $10,000 mark three times, but failed to stand firm at $10,000. However, Ethereum has increased by more than 40% in the past two weeks, and there may be a short-term callback demand.
For investors who are risk-averse, they should observe the market more at this time. It is too early to shout "the bull market is coming", and they should not blindly enter the market to chase higher.
