ETH has become the new leader, has the bull market started?
After the altcoins have shown their prowess, it is finally the mainstream currency’s turn recently, especially ETH and BTC have taken the lead. BTC successfully hit 10,000 US dollars, and the price reached above 10,300 US dollars at the highest price. The current upper pressure level has been looking towards the end of the year The high is $10,500.
ETH even went out of a 30% increase in a single week, setting a new high for a year. The current upper pressure level is already looking at 366 US dollars. In comparison, ETH can be called the "leading currency", so this "leading currency" How did it burst out with such a powerful energy?
Regarding ETH, we listed it as 5 currencies that can be used for value investment a long time ago: BTC, ETH and the three major platform currencies. At the beginning of the outbreak, the reasons were roughly analyzed, such as the active DeFi, the future of ETH2.0 and the blockchain service network.
What is clearly visible in the past two days is that the concept of ETH2.0 is becoming more and more important, and the lingering temperature in DeFi has not disappeared. For ETH, it is in a state where one round of topics has passed, and another round of topics is supported again, and the role played by DeFi It is a supporting role, or it can be said to be a grain depot for "blood sucked".
You can look at tokens that have risen based on DeFi projects, such as LINK, COMP, and LEND. Recently, when mainstream tokens are rising, the market performance is not optimistic. This is the so-called "blood-sucking market" in the market. Some investors believe that, The funds for the explosion of mainstream currencies are drawn from these altcoins. If the amount in the later period is not enough, it will be a failure after all. Some people think that the rise of mainstream currencies has caused the altcoins in their hands to fall, so they blame the mainstream currencies.
In fact, there is a sequence problem in the middle, the specific steps we wrote in last Wednesday's articleIs the long-lost rise in mainstream currencies a signal of altcoin fund transfers?It has been mentioned in the book that when the funds in the currency circle are tired of mainstream currencies, other concepts will rise or be hyped, resulting in less participation in mainstream currencies and funds flowing to other concept currencies, but only mainstream currencies and even Bitcoin can truly led the entire cryptocurrency market to rise. Due to the diversion of funds and no new funds entering the market, the first step in the later rise is to return the funds that have flowed out in the early stage. On the other hand, it is also because the concept of speculation can only be temporary. Yes, when the hot spots of the currency inflow of this part of funds subside, it is time to exit the market. It just so happens that the mainstream currency becomes popular, or the funds are consciously and actively returning. Is it the mainstream currency that attracts the return of funds, or is the fund in other conceptual currencies? The order in which the coins actively flow back to the mainstream after a wave of hype is not important, the result is the same.
In fact, this is why we emphasize cautious participation in popular altcoins. In addition to being easy to take over, such currencies themselves are relatively "short-lived". After a bull market, there must be a bear market. This is the law of the financial market. It’s just that if mainstream currencies are really in a bull market, the time period will be longer, while the cycle of altcoins will be very short, and the probability of a short safe exit is close to gambling.
Therefore, it is not objective to condemn the mainstream currency for blood-sucking altcoins. The funds themselves belong to the mainstream currency. It is only a temporary hype that hotspots flow to altcoins. They did not promise to stay, and now they have retreated. Can they be regarded as scumbags? ? It's just your love and my wish.
As for the other point about the "blood-sucking market" that will come to nothing sooner or later, it is actually open to discussion. I guess many friends think so because they have seen such a scene before, but "blood-sucking market" is one of the necessary steps in a bull market. In fact, it can be understood in this way After the "blood-sucking market" occurs, it is possible to be a real bull or a fake bull, but if it is a real bull, there is a high probability that a "blood-sucking market" will appear.
It is still a matter of bargaining chips. At present, no matter whether it is a real bull or a fake bull, the amount of capital is needed to rise. When the market itself fluctuates so little, it is impossible to directly attract off-market funds. It can only rely on the on-market funds. Backflow is also "blood-sucking", which will drive the market up first. Anyway, this step has already been achieved by relying on the market's own funds. The next step is to see if the off-market funds are ignorant and continue to push up the market. Enough is enough to start the bull market.
Finally, regarding the bull market, as mentioned above, the last stage of a bull market is the stage when off-market funds enter, but now it is in the second stage, that is, the stage when on-market funds return to push up the market, so we can judge the third stage based on this It is not sufficient whether there must be a reason. We can only say that the steps before the bull market have been fully prepared. As for whether it will be implemented, let those "zhuang" decide.
The current market trend is still very strong. Last week, basically all mainstream currencies received a big positive line, while Bitcoin broke the situation by a big positive line after the shock, and continued to rise at the opening of this week, which of course shows that The market is strong, but if we calmly think about it, if after a week of rising, it is logical to continue to push up and break through the strong pressure level of 10,500 without any rebound or shock digestion?
Many small partners believe that they didn’t say hello to the strong rise above $10,000 a few days ago, and it’s not impossible to continue to rise, if it’s really a bull market. But I still want to be the one who throws cold water, even if the future market is wrong and blamed, it doesn't matter.
Because the general bull market is the easiest time to lose money, not only because you may be locked up when you come in to pick up the order at the end, but also because you rush into the market while the market is rising, but after a little washing of the market, it will be like a frightened bird. The stop loss ran out, and finally rose again but did not dare to enter the market. As a result, the operation was repeated in the end, and there was no rhythm of its own, and the losses accumulated more and more.
In fact, we can think about it now, about how to go in the market next. First of all, there must be a chance to continue to rise, because there are always people in the trading market who go against the trend and make short orders at this time, and with the rise of this wave of market, they have been making short orders all the time, with a high probability of betting $10,500 It cannot be broken, and in the market, there is not a lot of time for the dealer to make a breakthrough for this part of the chips.
Secondly, if you think from the dealer's point of view, how to do it now will maximize the benefits. There are two points of high probability, one is as mentioned above, make a wave of false breakthroughs of 10,500 US dollars, blowing up the chips that have been shorting all the time, not to mention, you can quickly draw back the chips that have been locked up to chase higher, basically blowing up this part of the chips , after all, there are still more risk takers in this market who like high-dollar contracts.
The second is to slow down at this position, shake it first, create the illusion of standing firm at $10,000, and then smash the market to wash off this part of the chips, and start to pull in the future.
These two points are viewed from the general direction, and they are speculations without substantive evidence. You can refer to them.
From a practical technical point of view, it is still necessary to make a pullback at the moment. At least step on the support of $10,000 from a technical point of view. This week’s goal should not be set so long, and we must first ensure that we can stand firm at $10,000. , Even if it continues to rise later, try to keep calm.
As the "leading currency", ETH has been rising for seven consecutive days. If it is directly pulled up, it will not last long and it will fall as it rises. From the perspective of risk control, it is safer to pull back Way.
