Ethereum 2.0 is only three months away? Can it continue to lead the market?

Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)

Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)

, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Hello everyone, I'm Pepe. A few days ago, I said that the defi boom is still going on. Why is our big ether not moving? I didn't expect to become the most beautiful boy in the mainstream these two days. It seems that if you are not satisfied with the price, I still have to complain more [grinning].

Just kidding, one piece of news that cannot be ignored in this wave is that eth2.0 has finally made new progress.

However, it is said that the precise landing time of this test network is still uncertain, because it also depends on the need to satisfy at least 16384 mortgages (1 share is 32 eth) in the test network within 48 hours before the launch, in order to create the world Start, if it is not reached, it will be delayed for 48 hours to go online.

The Medalla network simulates the official version of the Ethereum 2.0 main network as much as possible. Anyone can register as a verification node, as long as there are 32 eth test coins in the Goerli test network, so it should be said that the normal launch is relatively easy to achieve of.

With the landing of Medalla, it also means that we are very close to the 0 phase launch of ETH2.0.

According to Schoedon, a developer of the team responsible for network upgrades, the beacon chain stage of eth2.0 is likely to be tested for three months, which is to be released in November this year. Unless there are serious loopholes during the test, there is no need for us to release 2.0 is postponed until next year.

secondary title

So the question is, can this bring a wave of market prices?

I think there will be.

On the one hand, Ethereum has received a lot of attention in the past two years. This is due to its large number of stakeholders. A hot trend in the past two years has also changed from "Ethereum killer" to "Ethereum ecological partner". There is also the explosion of defi in the past few months. It even feels that in the lively copycat season of defi, the voice of Ethereum in the encryption community has been higher than that of Bitcoin, and some people have begun to vaguely hear that "the market value of eth Eventually surpass btc" argument.

Therefore, it is good for Ethereum to have such a fundamental nature. As long as it is clear, it is still easy to bring about hype. What's more, with the current high gas fee of Ethereum, everyone still has more expectations for 2.0.

On the other hand, when entering the 0 phase of 2.0 - the beacon chain, there is a good hype point - mortgage 32 eth to be a verification node.

Originally, staking has been relatively popular in the past two years. Many targets will hype the mortgage model as a benefit. What's more, in the beacon chain stage, because it is a transitional stage, it can only be deposited and cannot be withdrawn. This is equivalent to increasing the interest in eth. demand.

Especially in the context of the growing demand for eth in the defi market:

There is still some room for imagination.

But it should be noted that the mortgage of eth2.0 actually has an early bonus, according to our previous forecast data:

If the amount of mortgages at the start of 2.0 is just at the start threshold, that is, about 524,000 eth, the annualized income of mortgages can reach 20%. If the amount of mortgages in the entire network is less than 2 million, the income can reach more than 10%. .

It should be said that this rate of return is still very good for many large households. Of course, as the functions of the mortgage redemption agency are improved later, and more time has passed, the rate of return will gradually decrease, as shown in the figure above, etc. Deposit 10 million (almost one-tenth of the total supply), and the interest rate is about 4.6%, which is relatively common.

Combining the above two aspects, we believe that there is still a very high possibility of a wave of market conditions before or in the early stages of the 2.0 launch.

secondary title

However, there are still some doubts about whether it has already started now, and several issues need to be paid attention to:

1. At present, the test network can determine the time. There is no official information on the launch time of the 2.0 main network. Most of the overseas news seems to be from the team developers. The accuracy is difficult to guarantee.

There are still many uncertainties in terms of hype. It can only be said that November is regarded as a temporary expectation. If you have a position or want to mortgage, you need to be prepared to wait longer.

2. It is possible that the amount of collateral in the beacon chain stage is not large, such as 2 million, which accounts for less than 2% of the total supply. The impact on the price here is likely to be greater than the impact of public sentiment on the price, which may exist Some "all the good things are done..." situations.

3. The zero phase of 2.0 is just the beginning of the transition from POW to POS. It will not be possible to move all the things on the ethereum for a while. Users and applications still need to face the current ethereum mainnet for a long time Congestion, high fees and other issues, this may still leave room for many other projects, such as Polkadot, which has a good domestic attention in the second half of the year, and some companies that help Ethereum expand the second-tier network, lowering the threshold for user fees items like this.

4. There is still resistance above the short-term

According to trading logic, these may hinder the upward breakthrough of eth.

epilogue

But don’t worry too much about this thing. I think it’s enough to know about this situation. In a bull market, past resistance levels are also used to break through. It’s just a matter of time. You can observe more later.

Another good news is that, also from the data on the chain above, the cost of 18 million eth is between $231 and $247, which is considered a relatively strong support level.