The market value of DeFi has increased by another 1 billion, why does Ethereum not rise?

Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)

, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

The locked-up assets in the Defi market in the Ethereum ecosystem exceeded 3 billion U.S. dollars in these two days. It took about two and a half months after 312, and the market value of DeFi returned to 1 billion U.S. dollars. It took another month to grow to 200 million U.S. dollars. It only took 20 days to go from 2 billion to 3 billion U.S. dollars, so in the next ten days, we can see it accelerate to break through the 4 billion mark, or a chain leverage xxx, haha, just kidding.

Hello everyone, I am Pepe. Seeing the defi market in recent months, especially the growth of these defi platforms in the eth ecosystem, there is an unavoidable soul torture in the currency circle:

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Is Ethereum Undervalued?

I used to think that if the DeFi market is really hot, it will be delicious to hold eth and earn money, but now it seems that there are still some problems.

Especially now from the data side:

The number of daily transfers on Ethereum has risen to 1.14 million, which is very close to the 1.34 million at the highest point of the 2017 bull market, but at present, no matter in terms of price or market sentiment, there is still a long way to go from its former glory .

So today we come to an issue of approaching science, why is the Ethereum special meow not rising?

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Judging from the current situation, there may be the following types of factors:

1. The factors that determine the short-term price are very complex, involving real-time supply and demand, public sentiment, news, capital, etc., and there are also some randomness, which often cannot reflect the fundamentals in real time.

There may be some time lag before there is an impact on large-scale supply and demand or we may still be in an early stage of decentralized finance.

From this point of view, we can be more optimistic about the future of eth, and even here I want to add a bit of dog head, don’t look at the fact that eth has not risen much recently, the end of the non-stop betting in various defi projects It is still uncertain whether it can outperform eth.

2. A big difference between this defi and the previous ICO wave is that eth has been "overheaded", and investors' demand has changed from using ether to invest in projects before to taking stablecoins as mortgages for leveraged arbitrage.

This point can be easily found by looking at the data of various lending platforms. For example, on the current third largest platform AAVE, the liquidity funds deposited in eth are worth 14.93 million US dollars, but the actual loan is only 3.75 million US dollars, which also makes its deposit interest rate None reach 1 point:

But for DAI on the same platform, the lending ratio and interest rate are much better:

On compound, which became popular due to liquidity mining, the situation is similar. The data volume of ether is much smaller than that of the stable currency DAI:

Also from the overall data, the increase of ETH deposited in DeFi was not obvious after 312, and it did not start to climb until after 6. From 2.5 million eth to now less than 4 million, it has not doubled:

And the DAI on the platform has been rising in a straight line in the past month:

It is conceivable where the increment of defi appears.

However, pay attention to the fact that the position of dai here has recently turned a little bit, and see if you need to pay attention to the risks of arbitrage on various defi platforms. In addition, ether can also pay attention to the data of defipulse. The increase is not large now, but if it can continue in the future, yes favorable to the price.

3. The data you see may contain a lot of moisture.

Many people may think that all defi data is on the chain. After the verification of the blockchain, the amount of assets mortgaged is the amount of assets. It can’t be played virtual, and it is more reliable than traditional platforms.

However, it should be noted that the number of mortgages on the chain will be displayed, neither more nor less, but this mortgage can be repeated. Suppose I deposit 10 ETH and can lend 2000DAI. This part of DAI, I It can also be mortgaged to lend other assets or stablecoins until this "matryoshka" can no longer be used.

And now the trend of defi has changed from the previous arbitrage within a single platform, like mining before comp, where different targets in the platform are mortgaged and borrowed, to cross-platform arbitrage, for example, you can mortgage on comp to earn a mining income, and then Deposit the loaned assets on uniswap for liquidity to earn interest, and now you can transfer this part of the mortgage on uniswap to AAVE to lend assets.

Do you think about how much leverage has been added in the middle?

I'm not good at math, so I can't figure it out [laughing and crying]

It may be that one eth enters defi, and it has to be recalculated many times by multiple platforms. This is also one of the reasons why you see such prosperity in the data, but the actual incremental funds are probably not large.

If all kinds of colorful defi passwords are not popular with our big ether, in addition to the above three points, there is another possibility that the biggest winner in this market is not Ethereum at all, but the market generally believes that it will stand in this trend The antithesis of cefi - a centralized trading platform.

This plot, emmm, is a bit bloody, just like the "dragon slayer boy" you thought could inspire a new myth, but the younger brother raised by the original "evil dragon".

The first time we introduced the concept of DeFi, we were actually comparing it with exchanges, because most of the functions of DeFi are not much different from the business of ordinary trading platforms. One is done on the chain, with automation and governance mechanisms, and the other is One is still the traditional use of the database.

From the perspective of the trend now, there will be a little bit of a feeling that whoever knows how to play uniswap and mortgage financial management is out. At the same time, all coins are "escaping" from centralized exchanges. The general trend of decentralization will make Traditional platforms have nothing to eat.

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But actually:

Check out how many of the more popular links, bands, and lends in this wave of market share are on XX.

A lot of links are placed on the aave platform, and that magnitude is not likely to be simply arbitrage by big players, and the latter can be regarded as the top card on Aave, and it has skyrocketed a lot this year.

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Of course, it’s not just a platform, like comp also has a coinbase investment background, and those who are close to cb seem to be quite popular this year.

And from this perspective, it seems to explain why makerdao, the top brand in the defi category, has not seen a decent increase in the past two months, perhaps because it is really too decentralized and lacks a funder father.

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