Market Analysis: The so-called unexplainable logic of the gods, understand the logic of the bull market in one article

特邀专栏作者

2020-07-05 11:52 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2663 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Underneath this business model is the flow of money. "Basic interests" drive the flow and allocation of money. Only the flow and injection of money can push up the price of assets and follow suit in the market.

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market interpretation

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market interpretationToday we changed the title of the first part from "Market Highlights" to "Market Interpretation"; today there is no major news to interpret, and the headlines of the blockchain are almost all comprehensive news about the blockchain industry. "Picking" communication, communication for the sake of communication, loses the comprehensiveness of the information itself; then the meaning of news information loses the value it should convey. Of course we don't seem to have any information in any one area that has real comprehensive delivery value.

Today is a logical semi-majestic essay!

Why Banxiongwen? Because where the keyboard goes, it cannot be exhausted, it is for living, click to the end!

Recently, the stock market has soared, and various great gods have begun to show up to point out the country. The combination and inference of various information tell us how much the stock market will reach in the future!

I don't analyze other people's remarks, what is the logic, how can I judge whether their analysis is correct?

We only need to establish our own investment logic, let the wind flow from east to west, and we have the ability to flow freely!First of all, we compare the country to a machine that is constantly moving forward, and the conditions for the operation of the machine require a normal engine and a constant supply of oil; what is the engine? What is petroleum?Everyone will understand with a little understanding,The engine is the growth industry and the oil is the money, the currency! When you understand this point, you will understand why we have to hold two meetings every year to make a government economic work report, and to make a five-year plan every five years! Make a guide for the industry that the country wants to develop and the direction of adjustment. This is like regular maintenance for the engine, so that the engine can continue to run normally and at high speed. When some parts of the engine are aging or have problems, it is necessary to install new ones. engine to maintain the high-speed operation of the machine. In this way oil (the metaphor of money) will be introduced into these new industries.

Driven by capital, the new industry has experienced rapid growth. In the capital market, there is a partial bull market in the industry.

So you have seen the lithium battery market in 2011-2013, the supply side market in 2016-2017, and the semiconductor market in 2019...

Let's analyze the market situation of the whole market this year! Some things go so far, as long as everyone understands the logic.

At the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, escalating geopolitical disputes, and anti-globalization, the overall global economy is expected to be pessimistic. It has led to the misery of the Western capital world led by US stocks. However, after a day of adjustments in China's stock market, it began to operate in a great way. Many of my friends are foreign professional investors, and they have even become fans of foreign capital markets. Every time I have a video conference with them, they will "do not understand" and "professional insults"... It is not convenient to let you know that they "understand professionally". Although it is extremely exciting, you have no chance to enjoy it.In essence, whether it is the capital market or the real estate market, they are just an economic engine, and the drainage of currency needs to be conducted according to "economic benefits"!economic benefitsHere, stop, what I'm saying here"economic benefits

"It is the upward "interest" rather than the "interest" in the eyes of the market. These two interests are not a matter of thinking at all. One is to maintain the stability and holding of this high-speed forward machine, and the other is for local The economic benefit maximization; the logic of the western market is the latter, because they advocate a set of independent "freedom" logic, they have their own "hands-raising" ability; butWhat we respect is the overall forward effect of the machine. We can sacrifice some high-speed but uncoupled "gears" for the overall forward stability.

Under the premise of pessimistic global economic expectations and lack of liquidity, after the Fed began to inject money to improve liquidity, the world started the money printing model; The result of printing money on the one hand solves the overall economic crisis caused by the lack of liquidity; Quickly operate to stimulate economic development. And we are no exception, 40 trillion yuan into the market + guidance on various industries in the government work report: new infrastructure, consumption stimulation of new energy vehicles, "cold treatment" of the real estate market (translation: open one*close one*), domestic Acceleration of autonomous substitution...

Therefore, in the second quarter, floor and land prices continued to rise, and house prices rose quietly. The issuance of currency is to meet the overall stability and development needs of the current economy and the new round of economy, so the "cold treatment" of this section is to fill the gap in the current "tax relief" treatment! First solve the problem of no rice in the pot at the moment, so we heard that we have to tighten our belts from top to bottom, and put an end to all wasteful expenditures.

It is an engine that is kicked in to keep the economic machine running in the short term.And the driving force for the long-term needs comes from the development driving force of its own economic growth. Many people will regard this driving force as the development of a certain industry, which is of course the case! But we're going a little deeper today! The development and driving of any industry, the ultimate goal is for one thing, that is for this engine to bring a steady stream of power and "oil" (shui base!)Need to have enough water base, then need to have a controllable and transparent system

then,, this system is already very mature in the western world, that is, all small and medium-sized companies become public companies, and "public companies" (listed companies) can achieve comprehensive supervision, the intensity of supervision and the protection of interests, which can reduce income. The cost of the tax also increases the intensity of the penalty. This is the most fundamental driving force for us to reform the financial system!then,

For the development of long-termism, we need to create a huge regulatory transparent system, so as to make the whole water transparent and facilitate the stability of "revenue"

! Therefore, the reform of the financial system, the introduction of the bank's brokerage license, the reform of the index constituents, and the implementation of the registration system are to expand the foundation, optimize the foundation, and inject "oil" (currency) into the market. Lead to the plate that maximizes the income, so as to truly emulate the virtuous circle of the western market. The result of this optimistic sentiment transmission is the result of the optimal allocation of earnings and funds in many industries! Therefore, the recent overall rise of brokerages comes from the result of the spread of local bull markets due to optimistic market sentiment.If you understand all the content I just implicitly expressed, you will not be carried away by various "gods" in this market. The market will continue, because the currency is still being injected, but the allocation attribute of funds is "going to a higher place", because behind the funds are "people"! Something scarier than a ghost.Sort out the logic, otherwise I'm still confused: "

After clicking here, everyone sorts it out by themselves, it took me a lot of hard work to write!

BTC market analysis

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BTC market analysisAfter reading the combing above, I feel very LOW when I write this. There is no way, I still need to analyze more emerging markets!BTC belongs to the idea of gold allocation。