The "resonance plate" still collapsed: ETH has not changed, but it has been cut in half in 20 days
Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
image description
The fluctuation chart of Grayscale Trust Fund ETHE in the past year
Hello everyone, I am Pepe, and we published an article this month:
"Resonance plate" from Grayscale: Ether rises by 1 point, it needs to rise by 20 points
This article was written on June 5. Unexpectedly, before the end of this month, it collapsed. ETHE fell from the highest point of $239 to today’s $86.97, a drop of 63%.
Because before, some people said that they didn’t understand it well, so let’s do a review of the previous situation. Veterans can skip this part directly. The model of Grayscale Trust is to build a digital asset pool and lock cryptocurrencies such as btc/eth in Inside (hosted by the coinbase cold wallet), and then through their funds, such as bitcoin is GBTC, ether is ETHE to anchor these assets to form prices and markets.
The increase in the supply of this asset pool comes from the primary market. Only institutions that meet a certain threshold can participate. They can directly invest in coins or US dollars to obtain the corresponding fund shares. After holding for 6 months (last year it was 12 months, this year changed ), which can be unlocked and realized in the secondary market.
Investors (jie) investors (pan) (xia) in the secondary market are mainly retail investors, the threshold is relatively low, and because accounts such as overseas pension social security can be directly deposited, reducing some security troubles for depositing coins, and there are also some taxes and fees The discount is also favored by a considerable number of American users.
Generally speaking, trusts such as GBTC and ETHE will fluctuate with the real digital market price. After all, its value is equivalent to the value of the corresponding part of the digital asset share behind it, which is why I think it is a bit like doing "Resonance".
Due to the supply and demand relationship in the secondary market, its actual price fluctuation is based on the bit market plus a bonus.
In Grayscale’s secondary market, if the sentiment of retail investors is higher than the amount released in the primary market, the increase of GBTC will change faster than that of BTC, and if the unlocked amount is greater than the demand of retail investors, it may appear that even if the Bitcoin itself rises, It's also possible to waterfall.
This is the case with the current Ethereum trust ETHE. In June, ETH itself rose by 4 points, but ETHE. . As long as the fomo comes in this month without stopping losses, almost all of them will have to suffer a cut in half.
The holder with the quilt smiled wryly and said:
He just holds, he doesn't want to cut the meat, and hopes that the increase of ether will make the fund rebound in the future.
However, can this old man's idea be realized?
There is a more pessimistic possibility that even if there is a big bull like in 2017, and eth rises to more than 2,000 dollars, this ether may not return to 200 dollars.
Why is there such a possibility? Because this time the collapse, a big factor comes from the fact that a large number of locked positions expired and released in June. A large number of institutional investors here participated in the first-level In the market, after unlocking, sell the trust to cash out, and then buy eth and return it to earn the profit of the premium part.
After this slump, the premium of ether relative to eth has dropped to three times from the previous highest ten times, but the possibility of another 50% drop cannot be ruled out.
We don’t know how many ethers have been cashed out in the secondary market during the past 20 days, and perhaps part of the reason for the decline is the retreat of speculative premium funds. However, there will still be a lot of shares in the next few weeks or even the second half of the year On the way to unlock, as shown below:
25,000 eth will be unlocked at the end of August, and 48,000 eth will be locked up before the end of the year. If the second-level receivers are not enthusiastic enough, it may be difficult for the price of ether to recover.
Also because of the recent slump of ether, and it seems that the trend is still continuing, many overseas media have pointed out that there is a huge inequality between retail investors and institutional qualified investors in such trust products, which is inhumane.
These two types of investors have experienced very different outcomes over the past few weeks:
More than half of the profits on retail positions were wiped out, while accredited investors who bought shares through private placements made a fortune.
The ETHE fund is a product that appeared later than GBTC. It first started in May last year. Smart institutional investors saw the early premium rate of GBTC, so they entered arbitrage in large numbers after it was approved.
Even though eth has not yet reached the highest point of last year, but with several times the premium space, the annual income is quite considerable.
But for many retail investors, it depends on luck. The following picture shows the trend of ETHE in the past year:
If you bought it at last year's low level, about $8, then you have achieved excess returns relative to Ethereum, but if you are attracted by the fomo sentiment this year, I'm afraid. .
In particular, the premium rate of ETHE has been rising this year. This price can easily reach hundreds of dollars, making many people who are confused about the situation think that it is a kind of "discounted Ethereum" and buy it without thinking. But I don’t know that one share corresponds to only 0.1ETH worth.
This has also led some overseas analysts to say that such a boundless decline is likely to trigger a class action against Grayscale Fund.
Of course, we can't participate in this matter anyway, so we can only sigh and sigh. However, the reason why we bring it up again today is because the sharp decline in the premium rate may also represent the Signal, which is closely related to us.
Just as the premium continues to rise, on the one hand, the supply cannot keep up with it, but on the other hand, the good external market drives retail investors to follow suit. The sharp decline in the premium of ETHE may not only be due to the increase in supply, but may also indicate that investors Buying enthusiasm has plummeted.
Although the premium rate will gradually weaken as the release of GBTC increases, there still seems to be a certain degree of correlation between its volatility and the overall market price.
epilogue
According to the historical situation in the above picture, usually the premium decreases, which also means that we are approaching the bottom of a market, or we are already at the bottom.
Personally, I prefer that there is still some room for decline, and I need to pay attention to risks, especially those who are playing copycats now. However, it is hard to say how big it is. Now the bull-bear support line of MA200 has been slowly rising, and it has reached around 8300. , If it does not break, the market still has confidence.
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