The "Matthew Effect" of mainstream currencies is also gathering, currently dominated by BTC and ETH
Recently, a small partner asked: Can the mainstream currency be deployed at this stage?
articlearticle, analyzed the "Matthew Effect" in the encryption market from the perspectives of good news, incremental funds and users, promotion and publicity, and encrypted derivatives, and pointed out that the highlight of this year is only BTC and ETH.
Today we use a simple and clear K-line chart form to analyze from the perspective of technical analysis.
First of all, let me draw a conclusion: mainstream currencies have also begun to further differentiate this year, BTC and ETH are the first camp, and others such as BCH, BSV, EOS, LTC, ETC, XRP, etc. are the second camp. The first camp and the second camp are also developing in the direction of the "Matthew Effect" where the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker, that is, funds and users are gradually transferring from mainstream currencies to BTC and ETH.
The picture above is the daily K-line chart of BTC, ETH, BCH, and EOS. It expresses two phenomena very intuitively and clearly:
1. BTC and ETH recovered the decline of 3.12 falls and reached a new level. The current price is consolidating at the second high point of the rebound when the market was halved in February.
2. Although BCH and EOS seem to be following the rebound of the market, they have not effectively recovered the decline of the 3.12 waterfall. The current trend is generally bearish, and the currency price has returned to the low point in early April.
The turning point of the two phenomena lies in the critical period of the end of April and the beginning of May. BTC and ETH have reached a new level after consolidation, and the currency prices have been rising steadily, but BCH and EOS have obviously stagnated, and have basically stagnated since then. Instead, the currency price gradually fell.
The period from the end of April to the beginning of May is actually the outbreak period of the BTC halving (5.12), and it is also the time when encrypted asset companies such as Grayscale, CashApp, Galaxy Digital, etc. are frantically buying BTC and ETH. This represents the preference of institutional investors for encrypted assets and the choice of mainstream funds. Compared with other mainstream currencies, the value and future development prospects of BTC and ETH are more worthy of investment.
On the other hand, it is also the choice of currency liquidity, transaction depth, user group and base, project ecology, etc. BTC and ETH naturally have an advantageous position. Other currencies lack liquidity and trading depth, and even basic buying and selling are restricted (if the volume is slightly larger, the goods will not be shipped, causing sharp fluctuations in currency prices), even in the contract market used to increase its liquidity, trading The volume and activity are not satisfactory, and not many people play.
I hope that everyone will notice the phenomenon that mainstream currencies have begun to diverge this year, and follow the market instead of blindly trading along past ideas or logic, such as "the market is rising, and mainstream currencies will rise in rotation", "mainstream The short-term rebound of the currency will drive the market to rise" and other logics.
Back to the market, compared with the trend chart of the mainstream currency, the mainstream currency has entered the lower edge of the previous wide range of shocks, returning to the price in early April, the volume can shrink simultaneously, the overall trend lacks vitality, and the currency price continues to rise. Falling back, the momentum of the bulls is obviously weak, and the follow-up market trend is worrying.
In comparison, BTC and ETH are still in a high-level consolidation trend, with obvious long-short struggles, and no obvious breakout market.
Although the BTC daily level has fallen below the MA60 daily moving average support, the decline has not expanded significantly, and the pressure from the moving average is relatively close, and there is a possibility of recovery. MACD dead cross, and fell below the 0 axis, but it is only a preliminary break, and there is still a possibility of recovery. It mainly depends on whether the power of the bulls can organize an effective counterattack while hedging the power of the shorts within this week.
From the perspective of the overall range consolidation trend, $8,500 is the critical point, a dividing line between long and short, which determines the mid-term trend of the broader market. After a complete break, a short pattern is formed. Before the break, it can still be regarded as the mid-term trend range. tidy.
At the hourly line level, it stopped falling after dropping to 8841 dollars yesterday, and started a weak rebound trend. It rose in a small amount at 9050 dollars, but then failed to hit 9200 dollars. The currency price retreated slightly, but it was still running above 9050 dollars. If this point is not broken within a few days, there is still a high probability of rebounding and standing at 9,200 US dollars. The real pressure is in the range of 9,300-9,400 US dollars.
This is a small rebound market under the big trend (shrinkage and retracement). To which step it can rebound depends on the cooperation of volume and energy, and whether it can rush up in one go when facing key points. At the same time, it is also necessary to observe the U.S. stock market at night. If the U.S. stock market operates smoothly, the risk of a sharp retracement of the BTC market is low.
ETH daily line level, fell back to MA60 daily moving average (220 US dollars) to stop falling, and 220 US dollars is the pivot point of the wide shock range (180-260 US dollars) since the end of April, if this support point is not broken, ETH will The short-term trend is still healthy.
The hourly line shrinks and rebounds, suppressed by the MA60 moving average, the overall trend is highly synchronized with BTC, you can intervene in a small position (with a stop loss), the pressure is at 230 US dollars, and the support is 220 US dollars.
