Prediction of the trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the next six months
On the evening of June 26, Hu Dong, the founder of Ebang International, announced that Ebang International was listed on the US stock market, which means that Ebang International, the fourth largest bitcoin mining machine manufacturer in China, officially listed on NASDAQ.
In this IPO, Yibang International publicly offered 19.2643 million shares, with a total issuance size of approximately US$100 million. However, the trend of the stock after the opening was not good, and soon fell below the issue price.
Canaan Yunzhi, the “first blockchain stock” that went public on NASDAQ last year, did not perform well after its stock price went public. The listing price is US$9. As of writing, its stock price has fallen to US$1.9, which has fallen by nearly 80% relative to the listing price.
This reflects the attitude of the traditional investment market towards digital currency mining. There is some reason for investors to be so negative.If the price of Bitcoin does not rise, the mining machine market will hardly improve.
Since Bitcoin fell from the peak of the bull market in 2018, except for a strong rebound from February to June last year, it has never gone out of a decent market. After the halving occurred in May this year, although Bitcoin has repeatedly reached $10,000, it has never stood firm.
In the article before the halving, I once wrote,After this halving, the income of miners will drop sharply, and some miners will inevitably be unable to maintain the existing mining costs and thus launch into the mining market; Big bitcoin selling pressure.
From the market point of view,In the next six months, hotspots that will appear in the market one after another will include Filecoin, which will be launched in August, DeFi, which is booming in the Ethereum ecosystem, and the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 beacon chain. Each of these hotspots will have a considerable impact on the market of Bitcoin.
Let's look at Filecoin first. Recently, the Filecoin project has launched a 4 million Filecoin token reward plan. These rewards are calculated based on the current Filecoin futures price, and the total amount is nearly 400 million yuan. For this big cake, all mining service providers are fully motivated, not only increasing their own investment, but also recruiting investors with strong financial strength from all over the world to join.
After the completion of this reward plan, the Filecoin mainnet will be launched next.
Undoubtedly, Filecoin's attraction to large funds is quite amazing, and it will attract a large amount of funds inside and outside the entire circle, which will pump blood into the entire market.
DeFi, which has recently risen in the Ethereum ecosystem, seems to have suddenly appeared like a thunder on the ground, and has attracted great attention from the entire circle. The market's attention to DeFi is mainly manifested in two aspects:
First, due to its flexible features and strong composability, DeFi applications may have unlimited imagination space, and new applications that we can hardly imagine now are likely to appear. Therefore, all those who pay attention to the ecological development of the public chain must pay attention Keep an eye on the development of DeFi and dare not slack off;
Second, after Compound issued the governance token COMP, its token price soared and attracted other DeFi tokens to imitate. Followed by Balancer also issued the governance token BAL. And the trend of BAL surpassed COMP, which triggered a wave of optimism. Next, there will be a large number of DeFi applications issuing tokens, and it is very likely that there will be a DeFi boom in the circle.
In the second half of the year, the upcoming launch of the beacon chain will set off a wave of pledges for Ethereum 2.0. According to past experience, the launch of collateralized digital currency will trigger the enthusiastic participation of major exchanges, wallets and service companies, just like EOS, ATOM and other projects.
The mortgage tide brought by the beacon chain will exceed all previous projects in terms of scale and influence, so this pledge tide will inevitably blow a gust of wind inside and outside the circle.
This will be a bloodbath for the attention and funds of all participants inside and outside the circle.
In the face of bloodshed in these three areas, I am afraid that in the next six months, it will be difficult for Bitcoin or other mainstream currencies other than Ethereum to get out of a decent market.
So what should we ordinary investors do? I suggest the layout of mainstream currencies, 30% of which will be invested in Bitcoin, and the other 70% will be invested in Ethereum. Ethereum will be the focus of the entire circle and the focus of the future.
