Four short-selling opportunities not to be missed in the second half of the year: DeFi, Eth2.0, Polkadot, and decentralized storage
Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Some people say that they don't know whether it is a bull or a bear now. They see that their own currency is a bear market, and other people's currencies are a bull market.
But let me tell you, even the random passwords mentioned in the articles of a third-rate scumbag writer like me have risen pretty well, and if this continues, they will almost succeed in transitioning to the trend of single bloggers [laughing and crying], what do you think? Are you still a bear? At least the current situation is different from the second half of 2018 and 2019.
Hello everyone, I’m Pepe. I recently read an article about several outlets that should not be done in the second half of the year: ETH2.0, Polkadot, storage, DeFi. In fact, there are many topics like this, including We have also mentioned these sectors recently.
So many friends are struggling, whether to "change the car", change it, many popular concept coins have doubled in a month or two, a little afraid of heights, don't change it, watching those parabolic rises is sour.
In fact, you can think of it this way, according to the first law of copycats, the next coin with a blinding increase will not exist in the hands of the public. So, how high can it blow the pigs up, even the wide-spread outlets that can be seen by all kinds of self-media writers?
Uncertainty here is high, at least in the short term.
But one thing is for sure, once the opportunity to be widely spread becomes popular, based on the current fundamentals of the currency circle, the short-term optimism will be greater than the actual bubble formation, and the valuation will be greater than the value. According to the second law of copycats, all bubbles will eventually It will be shattered, and the valuation will eventually return to value, so it is certain that the hot spots that people talk about will be deterministic short-selling opportunities in the future.
Thinking about it this way, does it feel like I can do it again, haha.
Such as shorting, futures and options, there is always a sense of zz in the public opinion in the currency circle. On the one hand, retail investors are usually more willing to be long. This tendency exists in all financial markets, so shorting is always a bit like a movie. The villain role, on the other hand, is indeed more risky, and it is easy for non-veteran players to play off.
But in the financial market, you need to remember one sentence: only novices will despise those who make different choices from themselves. The public chains are 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0. We should also upgrade and try to understand the other side that is not understood by the public.
In fact, the real bosses will use options and futures tools, but they will not bet on the direction like Xiaobai.
When the market collapsed and the believers began to be afraid, they were the first to rush in to buy because of the profit and repay the currency, which eased the downward trend.
1. Defi
Think about it.
The choice of short-selling targets is ten times easier than choosing ten-fold coins and hundred-fold coins. You only need to find those areas where there are valuation bubbles and people have unrealistic fantasies. And this, the media will scramble to remind you every day .
Let's talk about the current hot spots from high to low according to the degree of unrealistic fantasy.
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Who would have thought that one day Defi's explosive point would be mining?
Maybe in China, except for the discussion on the unexpected increase in the price of comp currency, the fomo sentiment is not high, and the overseas currency circle is currently in the stage of frantic swiping in the circle of friends.
They even named a dedicated word for "defi mining" - farm (farming):
In ancient times, there were people who planted melons and got melons, and those who planted beans got beans. Today, there are U/bat/zrx to get Comp. In ancient times, there were studs who sold houses. Today, there are people who put together all their savings and save them in compound (this behavior is not recommended to learn).In the past two days, there have been "spoilers" in this game, which has increased the risk by several levels. Originally, U has the highest interest rate. According to the distribution mechanism, the tokens are distributed the most. Everyone only needs to be between the stable coins for comping. Mutual mortgage arbitrage is enough, and the risk of liquidation of stablecoins can be considered to be close to 0, which is very stable.
However, the good times of Goose did not last long. It seems that there is a team that is constantly increasing the loan demand of BAT on the platform.
The mechanism on comp is like this. All interest rate data is based on the lending situation on the platform. If the amount of funds borrowed is relatively large, the corresponding interest rate will be increased to promote more supply. But the problem now is to join After mining, as long as the target interest rate is higher, more will be allocated to it, which makes "interested people" who want to maximize the mining benefits start to start with other counterfeit varieties with high volatility on the platform.
How exaggerated is the bat on the current comp:
0x7578e676b3706aa65a4d7b9bd621922a305552db
The utilization rate of his family has reached as high as 85%, which means that 160 million bats worth 160 million have been deposited on the platform, 85% of which have been lent out, which also makes the current deposit interest rate as high as 23.75%, and the borrowing rate has soared to 31.87%.
That is to say, if you want to borrow BAT on the platform, you have to pay a "usury" with an annualized rate higher than 30%. 914 comps can be distributed every day:
This basically eats up the income from saving U in the past. Compared with arbitrage between U, arbitrage among altcoins can get twice the result with half the effort, but it also means higher liquidation risks.
However, for the bat arbitrage, it feels like there should be a team dedicated to leading the promotion, and the others are scattered follow-ups, because we found an account:
Speaking of 130 million bats, you know the total amount of bats.
This number is now more than 300 comps a day, it’s very cool, and it’s several blocks away from the previous nexo.
Wait, did I digress [laughing and crying].
2. ETH2.0
Let’s go back again. In fact, let’s talk more about the changes of comp in the past few days. I also want to say that in the field of defi, there are too many arbitrage, and there are even arbitrage with great potential systemic risks. There is no financial development at all. , then the data growth here is likely to bring more short-term valuation moisture.
On the other hand, imagine that if you open a plate now, lock U and lock ether to replace each other, you can share tokens, whichever has the largest transaction volume, and whichever has the most points, what is the difference between this and defi, is it possible? Hundreds of millions of dollars in market value?
Of course, on the bright side, this time it actually allows people to see the potential of defi compared to cefi. It is more open, which means that more people are willing to participate, and there is more competition, and competition means prosperity.
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The reason why it is ranked second is because for ETH2.0, 32 eth is a good story that can be speculated. The market still has a lot of expectations for this, and the ecological development of Ethereum in the past two years has indeed formed a scale , especially overseas, the influence is much higher than the latter two.
But when it comes to ether, let’s talk about it here. Recently, many people have been talking about why defi is so popular, but the growth rate of ether is very limited. This is actually very simple, just like why Grayscale “stocks” so many coins, But it’s the same as Bitcoin’s not rising. It’s still an arbitrage stock market. There is no increase. Where did the rise come from?
So if it really rises because of this, it will become a good Air Force target again.
3. filecoin+decentralized storage
If filecoin goes online next month or next month, the initial stage may be somewhat similar to the current comp, with a small amount, and then mining nodes need to mortgage tokens, which is also a place where many people pay attention, or there is some hype.
And all things that can be hyped will always return to calm, but let’s take a look at ipfs, because I have evaluated it before, and I feel that it is only popular in China. As for the concept of storage, I feel that some currencies with related concepts are now rising. I just said that the sector is rotating, and it can’t reach the crazy enthusiasm of DeFi. I can only say that I will pay attention to it in July.
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Polkadot and fil are a bit similar, and it is also hot in China. There is a parachain auction in the early stage of launch, and you need to mortgage dot tokens to enter. This smells a bit speculative.
epilogue
And his family’s journey to become a better "Ethereum 2.0" is not as simple as just going online. Even with the blessing of various chain ecology, the road is still long. The difference between people's expectations and the cruel reality, It is the profit you can get by shorting.
However, like Polkadot and fil, even in China, according to my observation, not all of them are unreasonably optimistic. For shorting, the opportunity may not be so obvious, so we need to observe more.
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epilogue
