The logic of the bull market in the currency circle

It has been more than a month since the halving of Bitcoin, but the market of Bitcoin has not been satisfactory. How to go about the next market has become a problem that many people have been paying attention to.

Many seniors in the currency circle expressed their opinions on this, almost without exception, saying that Bitcoin will have a big market in 2021:

Jiang Zhuoer even deduced on Weibo based on past historical data that Bitcoin will rise to $89,133 on September 8, 2021----even the time and price are so accurately predicted, which makes people irresistible a feeling of. Because Jiang Zhuoer has made accurate predictions on the top and bottom prices of Bitcoin many times in the past, his prediction has attracted the attention of people in the circle.

Li Qiyuan once stated in the article that Bitcoin will reach $333,000 in 2021, and then fall back to $41,000 in January 2023.

Zhao Dong believes that Bitcoin will resonate with A shares and reach 30,000 to 50,000 US dollars in 2021.

Can Bitcoin, which carries so many expectations, really get out of such a magnificent market in 2021? Expectations belong to expectations. We still need to look at the future with a rational and objective attitude.

If we look back at the development history of Bitcoin, it has experienced a big bull market in 2012-2013 and 2016-2017, and achieved quite high gains.

So what factors caused it to go out of such a vigorous market in these two bull markets?

I think the fundamental factor that led to the bull market in 2012 was the unique technology and application scenarios that Bitcoin showed compared to other altcoins in that era.

Although a large number of teams made various improvements based on Bitcoin at that time, none of them showed obvious advantages over Bitcoin in application scenarios, and those innovations in technology did not show particularly strong advantages over Bitcoin. Therefore, it can be said that Bitcoin was the first unique thing that made people realize digital currency and blockchain technology in terms of technology and concept in that era.

It is precisely for this reason that the first Bitcoin bull market broke out. In fact, the seniors in the domestic currency circle first came into contact with Bitcoin in that era.

I think the root cause of the bull market in 2016 is the ICO of Ethereum. In that ICO frenzy, the main activities of many newcomers to the currency circle were not to buy Bitcoin but to buy Ethereum to participate in ICO. However, due to the top status of Bitcoin, anyone who enters this circle will eventually contact and buy Bitcoin no matter what they buy. Therefore, Bitcoin was brought to a climax by the participants of the ICO.

But coincidentally, the time when the Ethereum ICO broke out was just after the second halving of Bitcoin, which together with the second halving of Bitcoin gave birth to the market, so this strengthened a consensus that "Bitcoin halving is the There will be a bull market” impression. This is more of a coincidence than a necessity.

For any technology and invention, we must understand the fundamental point that if it is to produce disruptive commercial value and revolutionary impact, it must produce disruptive innovations in technology and ecology. Even if it is hype, we need fresh themes and speech techniques, and it is impossible to keep hype forever on an old concept.

The same is true for Bitcoin. Its significance and historical contribution have actually been established as early as 2012. After these 8 years of development, although the understanding of it is still limited to some groups, it can no longer be given to the circle. The inside and outside bring fresh concepts and imagination space, so it is impossible to rely on the topic of "halving" to give birth to the next bull market.

The future space, value and growth momentum of the blockchain will definitely be outside of Bitcoin. In my opinion, this driving force is Ethereum. Therefore, it is impossible to usher in the next bull market we are looking forward to only by emphasizing the significance of Bitcoin.

I think the prediction that Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 in 2021 is too optimistic, we should still put aside the hoarding of Bitcoin, and put more of our energy into Ethereum and the Ethereum ecosystem is booming DeFi and DAOs.