Deribit Options Market Report: The market sentiment is dominated by bearish volatility
Editor's Note: This article comes fromDeribit Deri's trading class (ID: deri_trader), published with permission.
Options Market Broadcast
【Target Performance】
BTC historical volatility
7d 20.97%
14d 64.68%
30d 63.37%
60d 69.66%
1Y 89.76%
ETH Historical Volatility
7d 26.12%
14d 77.06%
30d 69.03%
60d 79.93%
1Y 105.12%
BTC historical volatility
【BTC Options】
ETH Historical Volatility
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Implied volatility for each normalized term:
【BTC Options】
6/9：1m 65%, 3m 69%, 6m 74%
The open interest is US$1 billion, which is at a high level.
Implied volatility for each normalized term:
Skewness:
Today: 1m 64%, 3m 69%, 6m 74%
6/9：1m +1.4%, 3m +3.5%, 6m +6.5%
The 1-month VRP is almost gone. While shorter-term realized volatility has fallen to a very low level, the market is not convinced that it will continue to be this low for the next 2-4 weeks.
Tenors closer to maturity exhibit IVs that better match short-term volatility because of less uncertainty.
Call Buys 33%
Call Sells 27%
Skewness:
Today: 1m -1.1%, 3m +3.2%, 6m +6.1%
secondary title
【ETH Options】
The open interest is 150 million US dollars, which continues to break through new highs.
Trading volume was steady.
Each standardized period IV:
【ETH Options】
6/9：1m 68%, 3m 74%, 6m 77%
Trading volume was steady.
Skewness:
Each standardized period IV:
6/9：1m +8.7%, 3m +8.2%, 6m +8.8%
Today: 1m 68%, 3m 74%, 6m 77%
smooth.
Call Sells 28%
Put Buys 33%
Skewness:
Today: 1m +7.7%, 3m +8.3%, 6m +8.6%
Jeff Liang
Term Struture
【Glossary】
Implied Volatility (IV)
It is the volatility value derived by substituting the option trading price in the market into the BSM option pricing model. That is, what is the implied volatility value in the option quotation. The name is very vivid.
BSM is the abbreviation of the last names of the three authors of the model, namely Black-Scholes-Merton.
Historical Volatility (HV) or Realized Volatility (RV)
Both terms have the same meaning.
It is a measure of the past volatility of the underlying price.
Specifically, it is to take the daily rate of return of the target (the logarithmic rate of return of the closing price to the closing price), within the specified date sample interval (such as the past 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, etc.), calculate the daily return rate of this series of days The standard deviation of returns. Multiply by the square root of the transaction time included in a year (the stock market is multiplied by the root sign 250, and the digital currency market is multiplied by the root sign 365) for annualization. The resulting value is the historical volatility.
Skewness
An indicator to measure the value of false value Call and false value Put.
Take the IV of Call whose delta absolute value is also 0.25 and subtract the IV of Put. If a positive value is obtained, the false value Call will be more expensive, which is called right bias (observe the coordinate axis of the strike price, if the right is on the right, the strike price will be higher) .
If a negative value is obtained, the false value of Put is more expensive, which is called left bias (observe the coordinate axis of the strike price, if left, the strike price is lower).
In the Skew.com website, the opposite difference is applied, which is the Put IV minus the Call IV of 0.25 Delta. So the sign needs to be adjusted. However, after rotating its coordinate axis counterclockwise by 90%, the distinction between left and right is still very clear.
Balance (At the Money, ATM)
Options with a strike price near the current underlying price are called at-the-money options.
The absolute value of the Delta of the (near-month) at-the-money option is close to 0.50, and the absolute values of Gamma, Theta, and Vega are all maximized around this area.
Out of the Money (OTM)
Call: The exercise price is above the spot price, such as the spot price is 7,000, and the strike price is 10,000.
Put: The exercise price is below the spot price, such as the spot price is 7000, and the strike price is 6000.
The out-of-the-money option price returns to zero at expiration.
The delta absolute value of the (near-month) out-of-the-money option is between 0 and 0.50, and the absolute values of Gamma, Theta, and Vega are relatively small.
Real value (In the Money, ITM)
Call: The strike price is lower than the spot price, for example, the spot price is 7000, and the strike price is 6000.
Put: The strike price is above the spot price, the spot price is 7000, and the strike price is 8000.
The price of an in-the-money option at expiration is the difference between the spot price and the strike price, which is the intrinsic value of the option.
The absolute value of delta of real-money options (in recent months) is between 0.50 and 1.00, and the absolute values of gamma, theta, and vega are relatively small.
Term Struture
The implied volatility for the same strike price reflects different quotes as the remaining life of the option varies.
In general, options with shorter maturities have larger changes in implied volatility. The longer the option, the smaller the change in implied volatility.
When markets are volatile, short-term implied volatility rises faster and the term structure slopes downward.
When markets are long-term calm, short-term implied volatility falls faster and the term structure slopes upward.
