OKEx Investment Research 0609 Weekly Report: Non-agricultural "Oolong" Nasdaq hits a new high, how long will it take for Bitcoin to break through 10,000?
Written by: OKEx Investment Research
Written by: OKEx Investment Research
U.S. non-agricultural employment data in May significantly exceeded expectations and now "oolong"
OPEC confirms extension of oil output cuts until end of July
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breaking news
breaking news
[Non-agricultural employment data significantly exceeded expectations and now "oolong"]
The most exciting news in the financial market last weekend was that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 2.509 million in May, and the unemployment rate dropped from 14.7% in April to 13.3%. The market's previous expectation was that the unemployed population would continue to increase, with the unemployment rate reaching around 20%. Affected by this news, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply. The Dow broke through the MA200 bull-bear boundary and reported above 27,000 points. The Nasdaq even hit a record high.
However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor released a statement after the data was released, explaining the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the non-agricultural data in May, while acknowledging that there are errors in the data. For unemployment, the real unemployment rate in the United States will reach about 16.4% in May, which is higher than the 13.3% officially announced that day.
OKEx Investment Research believes that the strong performance of the US non-agricultural employment data has driven the three major US stock indexes to rise sharply. The negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the United States is weakening, but the statement from the Department of Labor indicates that the employment situation in the United States is still not optimistic. , and the riots caused by racial discrimination in the United States continue to occur, and the unstable factors that hinder the resumption of work and production in the United States still exist. Therefore, the continued rebound of the US stock market is expected to be further strengthened.
[OPEC confirms that crude oil production cuts will be extended until the end of July]
According to the oil production reduction agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries on April 12, the scale of production reduction from May to June this year was 9.7 million barrels per day, and the scale of production reduction from July to the end of the year was reduced to 7.7 million barrels per day.
Although judging from the current trend, the market has certain expectations for the OPEC production reduction agreement, so US crude oil continues to rise. As of this Monday, the price of NYMEX crude oil futures broke through 40 US dollars.
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data tracking
data tracking
According to Glassnode data, since March 13, the exchange’s bitcoin balance has shown a significant negative correlation with the bitcoin price trend. As of June 8, the exchange’s bitcoin balance hit a one-year low of 2310466.6 BTC. The last low was on June 3, 2020 at 2,313,098.855 BTC.
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Figure 2: Exchange Bitcoin Balance vs BTC Price - glassnode
OKEx Investment Research believes that since March this year, the number of Bitcoin outflows from cryptocurrency exchanges has continued to increase, indicating that investors are less likely to sell their assets in the short term. Generally speaking, the scale of withdrawals from exchanges has increased. , is an optimistic indicator for measuring the medium and long-term trend of Bitcoin.
According to data from glassnode, besides the fact that the annual rate of return of Ethereum is higher than that of Bitcoin, the total number of addresses holding ETH is 39.96 million, which exceeds the total number of Bitcoin holding addresses of 30.1 million. In addition, the number of wallets holding more than 32 ETH has continued to grow and exceeded 100,000 last year, which is regarded as a big step for Ethereum towards version 2.0.
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Event preview
Table 1: Calendar of Important Financial Events This Week - Organized by OKEx Investment Research
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market analysis
market analysis
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Figure 4: OKEx BTC/USDT Spot Price Daily K-line Chart-AICoin
Figure 4: OKEx BTC/USDT Spot Price Daily K-line Chart-AICoin
On the whole, following the riots caused by racial discrimination in the United States last week, the number of new crown epidemics in the United States has continued to increase in the past week. Although the non-agricultural employment report data exceeded expectations last Friday, the market later clarified the false oolong, and risks in the external market still exist. It can be reflected from the data that the balance of Bitcoin on the exchange continues to decrease and the number of independent addresses of Ethereum exceeds 100 million. The market is bullish, and the market is currently optimistic about the continued rise of the currency price.
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
