"Resonance plate" from Grayscale: Ether rises by 1 point, it needs to rise by 20 points
Editor's Note: This article comes fromHot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18), Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
Hot Wheels Community (ID: FHBT18)
, Author: Pepe, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.
We have published an article:
They hoarded 350,000 BTC, which is expected to increase to 550,000 next year, but they are here for speculative arbitrage
The reason why I took such a title is that most of my friends in China are indifferent to this kind of grayscale fund. However, grayscale has frequently appeared in various information streams in the past two weeks. For example, the latest information said:
Grayscale Managing Director: Since April, the company’s Bitcoin investment fund has surged from $2 billion to $3.5 billion!
There is also the data of how many bit positions are bought like this:
The original post of the data above is indeed quite popular, but I think there are still some misleading people who don’t know the truth, so I will add another issue to the content of Grayscale today.
In addition, I compared the price performance of the two from May 21 to today. ETH has increased by about 32%, and this ETHE has increased by as much as 145%. V God can't help but like it!
According to the information provided by the Grayscale website, one share of this trust currently represents an actual position of 0.094 eth, and buying one share at $239.5 corresponds to the real market price of ETH, and the premium is as high as 10 times!
Looking at the timeline of ETHE, the price of ETHE at the high point last year was almost 580u. Compared with the normal price of about 300U at that time, the premium may be almost 20 times. So at present, it is exaggerated, but it is also It's not that exaggerated.
However, generally speaking, when it has an extraordinary premium, it may also mean that it is approaching a staged top. Note that I am not saying that this must be a recent top. No one can guess the top, but when the market price moves forward. Step up, such as emotions turning to greed, doubling of handling fees, and this premium, are all signals that risks are gradually outweighing benefits, just pay attention.
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So why are some people stupid enough to buy Ethereum at a ten-fold premium?
I've also seen quite a few people asking this question.
In fact, the above premium chart should be able to see part of the answer. If it is compliant, it is very convenient to enter the market, and it can also have leverage attributes. Which investment speculator does not love it?
Well, let’s go back to the grayscale trust fund. In fact, whether it is Bitcoin’s GBTC or Ethereum’s ETHE, the logic is the same, so let’s put them together.
As mentioned in our previous article, the so-called institutional buying of coins may have some real buying parts, but there are also data showing that most of them are arbitrage.
So today I will add an understanding of two issues.
1. If institutions are arbitrage, what exactly is the increase in grayscale positions seen in the news every day? Are they really buying coins every day?
First of all, one thing is certain is that we really don’t know Grayscale’s real Bitcoin holding address. According to his family, it is stored in Coinbase’s cold storage, and there is a proper private key security management. As for the address of Coinbase’s cold wallet It is also hidden very deeply, so..emmm.. There is no data to prove whether their position data is really one-to-one correspondence, even if there is a hacker. . We may not know either.
It's just that, since it is a product approved by the SEC (SEC), you should choose to believe it.
In the GBTC model, institutions participate in private placements in the primary market. This part has a lock-up period (12 months before, now 6 months). After 6 months, they can enter the secondary market to participate in transactions. The GBTC we see Daily quotations come from transactions in this secondary market.
Note that this trust currently does not have a redemption function. It existed at the beginning, but it was later canceled because it violated their securities laws and regulations. Now the amount in the primary market can only be sold in the secondary market if it is to be realized. There is no other choice.
As for the premium, the demand for GBTC from the secondary market is higher than the unlocked selling volume of institutions.
Then, compared to the statement that institutions buy coins every day, there is another more credible statement that the so-called grayscale’s total holdings increase every few days. Last year, there happened to be a shortened lock-up period from December to June, so there will be such a period of time, and the increase happens to be relatively large.
And because there is no redemption mechanism, this position must only rise but not fall, which has nothing to do with whether you are optimistic or not.
The real recent purchase was the first-level financing of more than 6,800 bitcoins on May 26, and it was not as exaggerated as the media said that this side was drawing the door, and the fund over there immediately bought more than 10,000 bitcoins.
However, it seems that there is still a selling scene, and the seller is Grayscale itself:
The picture above is the data of GBTC buying and selling bitcoin positions provided by bybit in the past few years. The green column is the part that Grayscale sells. Generally, this is to pay some custody fees and operating costs. Of course, it is still far away. far less than the purchase volume.
According to an internal report of a data website, the average unlocking volume of the GBTC secondary market is now 220,000 shares a day (corresponding to more than 200 bitcoins a day, on average), and this magnitude is still growing rapidly. That is, after 6 months, the release of one day may reach 700,000 shares:
I don’t know if there will be more media at that time and say that the amount of miners digging can’t feed Grayscale, haha.
In addition, for ETHE, according to the previous grayscale fund analysis report provided by Niubi Circle, there should be a lot of unlocks in the future:
Therefore, some analysts pointed out that for secondary market users, whether this premium can be maintained for a long time in the future is a question, and it will also be a risk point for investing in this product.
2. Who is buying such trust products in the secondary market? Why don't they buy real btc?
The institutions are all monkey elites. If you really want to take over these high premiums in the secondary market, it’s still the big leeks in the United States. Who else do you think?
But since people are willing to be a panchaer, they may not be stupid:
On the one hand, as mentioned above, the volatility of its premium is sometimes exaggerated. There is a saying that the premium will inflate more when the market is good, and shrink when the market falls. The inherent leverage attribute can attract many speculators.
On the other hand, an information point that I didn’t pay much attention to before is that foreigners can use their pension accounts, 401K and IRA to directly participate in investment. Buying coins is the same as speculating in stocks, without too many thresholds.
Using a pension account, like 401K, is a bit like our pension fund. It is considered a benefit. The company pays a part and the individual pays a part. IRA is an individual voluntarily investing money to participate. This type of account can participate in some funds and securities investments, and there are some taxes and fees for using them There are preferential policies for reduction or exemption.
Under the economic background of this year's release of water, there are also many overseas salary earners who directly use this account and take a certain percentage every month to invest in trusts, hoping to increase their value.
As the old man above said:
He said that the price of ETHE when it was first listed was at a premium of $1,000 to the underlying asset Ethereum. He bought some without doing due diligence. scam".
epilogue
In addition, although it is very convenient for investors, Grayscale also charges a 2.5% annual fee, which is not a small loss for long-term hold.
At the same time, the energy non-conservative model of only getting in but not paying a premium is a risk for investors. As the unlocking continues to flow into the market, can it still maintain a high premium? Unless the currency price increases year by year, there will always be a harvest scenario.
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