OKEx Investment Research 0602 Weekly Report | U.S. riots, risk aversion escalates, Bitcoin’s rise is expected to continue
Written by: OKEx Investment Research
Written by: OKEx Investment Research
l U.S. riots continue to escalate, risk aversion heats up
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breaking news
breaking news
[Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity in most regions has fallen sharply]
The national economic situation survey report released by the Federal Reserve on the 27th last week showed that the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic this year has led to a "chaotic situation" in the US economy. Economic activity in most jurisdictions has declined sharply, overall economic activity has also declined, and employment continues to decline.
The Federal Reserve's report is compiled based on the latest survey results of its 12 regional reserve banks, also known as the "Beige Book". Economic activity fell in all regions compared with April, when the last "Beige Book" was released, with sharp declines in most regions, the report showed, reflecting disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic . While many have expressed hope that overall economic activity will pick up as businesses reopen, the outlook remains highly uncertain.
OKEx Investment Research believes that the US economic situation reflected in the Fed’s Beige Book is to a certain extent affected by the new crown epidemic. No matter from the perspective of the industry or the employment situation, it is not optimistic, and it is difficult to recover in the short term. It is expected that the full recovery of the economy will take a long time. In terms of risk appetite, the market uncertainty is still relatively large. Investors can continue to pay attention to and deploy varieties with risk-avoiding attributes. Gold and Bitcoin are the best choices.
[U.S. riots continue to escalate, risk aversion heats up]
Last week, the white police in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA violently enforced the law and killed the African-American man George Floyd. Large-scale protests and demonstrations triggered by this tragedy are still going on in many places in the United States , former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin was charged with third-degree murder and manslaughter.
According to the World Wide Web, protests are currently erupting in at least 30 cities across the United States. According to the latest statistics from CNN, as of this Monday, there are currently at least Minnesota, Georgia, Ohio, Colorado, and Wisconsin in the United States as protests continue to be triggered by Freud's death across the United States. Eight states, including Washington, Kentucky, Utah, and Texas, and the District of Columbia have activated or requested the National Guard to assist local law enforcement to quell demonstrations. Since the 28th, a total of nearly 1,400 people have been arrested by the police in 17 cities across the United States.
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data tracking
data tracking
【Bitcoin network average transaction fee dropped by 66%】
According to the latest chart data from Bitinfocharts, the average transaction fee of the Bitcoin network began to rise rapidly from $0.664 on April 28 to the highest point of $6.647 on May 20, with a cumulative increase of 900%, indicating that the sharp increase in Bitcoin unconfirmed transactions led to The network condition of is serious.
OKEx Investment Research believes that the sudden drop in Bitcoin’s average transaction fee is accompanied by a decrease in the large number of unconfirmed transactions blocked in the Bitcoin memory pool, which also reflects the improvement in the efficiency of successful transactions, and to a certain extent contributes to the birth of With the large number of transactions of Bitcoin, the currency price is expected to continue to rise under the influence of market supply and demand.
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Figure 1: The average transaction fee of Bitcoin in the past 3 months-BitInfoCharts
Note: The mempool is where all unconfirmed bitcoin transactions wait until all confirmations are published before all transactions are completed. The larger the mempool, the longer it will take to confirm transactions because there will be more blocks that need to be confirmed.
[The number of non-zero addresses in Ethereum is approaching 40 million]
GlassNode data shows that since July 2017, the total number of Ethereum addresses with a balance greater than zero has been rising, and now it has jumped to 40 million. This shows that the number of non-zero addresses has skyrocketed by more than 350% since the ETH price hit its all-time high.
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Figure 2: Number of Ethereum non-zero addresses vs ETH price - Glassnode
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Event preview
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market analysis
The screenshot is from the K-line chart of the OKEx BTC/USD contract in the current quarter. Since the bearish reversal signals of TD green series 9 and 13 appeared in the technical form in early May, the contract price has recently maintained a high level of consolidation. As shown in the figure, the short-term price It fluctuated in the range of $8600-$10000. The first two trading days last week continued the downward trend of the previous week. On Wednesday, it rebounded rapidly near the lower rail of the box under the support. As of 10:30 am on Monday, the contract price The quotation is near the top of $9600.
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Figure 3: OKEx BTC/USD quarterly contract daily candlestick chart-AICoin
The screenshot below is from the K-line chart of OKEx ETH/USD contract in the current quarter. It can be seen that the rising trend of ETH in this round is much stronger than that of BTC. The contract price is also supported by the rising trend line below. Three rounds of $240 hit a new high in the near future. In the short term, a strong upward attack has turned the previous pressure level into a support level, and investors should pay attention to the risk of stepping back after the market rises.
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On the whole, on the news side, the weakness of the Fed’s economic data and concerns about the prospect of economic recovery brought about by the epidemic, coupled with the escalating riots in the United States and the United Kingdom, have cast a shadow on the future of the global market, and global risk aversion Sentiment is heating up again; on the data side, the sharp reduction in the average transaction fee of the Bitcoin network and the rapid increase in the number of non-zero addresses in Ethereum all support the further rise in the currency price; The large-scale upside breaks through the 10,000 yuan mark to start a new rising market, and the first launch of Ethereum has also become the vanguard of this round of market.
Risk Warning: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
