Market analysis: After the "halving", is Bitcoin calm?
In the last article, we analyzed the historical trend of Bitcoin from the perspective of technology and capital, and had a preliminary prediction of the future trend.
From the perspective of capital allocation, the total asset management scale of encrypted hedge funds doubled in 2019, and the willingness of institutional funds to allocate encrypted currency assets continued to increase.
event 1
In the early morning of May 12, Bitcoin mining rewards ushered in the third "halving", and the mining market was calm. Bitcoin computing power continues to stabilize at a high level.
The output halving block reward will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Since then, only one-eighth of Bitcoin has not been "mined", and seven-eighth of Bitcoin will be in the negotiable state. On November 28, 2012, when the first halving occurred, the computing power of the entire network was 27T, but now the computing power of a single mining machine is approaching 100T, which is not as good as that of a single mining machine. Since the beginning of this year, the computing power of the entire network has continued to grow steadily, and it is currently 122E.
According to historical laws, each halving period is not the best time for Bitcoin price performance. For Bitcoin mining, considering price fluctuations, mining machines with lower energy consumption ratio are more favored by miners. Due to the strong willingness of the main miners to hold coins and the rigidity of the operating costs of the mines, the mining market is believed to be well prepared for it.
Last week, BTC added 2.25 million transactions, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; ETH added 5.93 million transactions, a month-on-month increase of 1.2%. Last week, the average daily income of BTC miners was US$18.56 million, an increase of 12.6% month-on-month; the average daily income of ETH miners was US$2.3 million, an increase of 0.4% month-on-month.
event 2
On May 14, the Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Accelerate the Development of the Blockchain Industry in Hainan Province" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), with a trial period of three years. It is worth noting that the "Notice" clearly proposes to set up a blockchain industry fund of 1 billion yuan and support leading companies to explore digital asset transactions.
From the perspective of capital allocation, the total asset management scale of encrypted hedge funds doubled in 2019, and the willingness of institutional funds to allocate encrypted currency assets continued to increase.
Therefore, both in terms of news and capital, the market has embraced blockchain technology and mainstream digital currencies such as BTC and ETH. The performance of traditional fund investment institutions actively entering the market is enough to explain the future of the market!
In terms of fund management asset distribution, 97% of the respondents indicated that their funds under management included Bitcoin, while 67% of respondents managed funds that included Ethereum, and managed funds that included Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and EOS. Respondents accounted for 38%, 31% and 25%, respectively; family offices accounted for 48% of hedge fund investors, while high-net-worth individuals accounted for 42%, and the rest were foundations, venture capital funds or funds of funds.
The willingness of traditional institutional funds to allocate cryptocurrency assets continues to increase.
Therefore, both in terms of news and capital, the market has embraced blockchain technology and mainstream digital currencies such as BTC and ETH. The performance of traditional fund investment institutions actively entering the market is enough to explain the future of the market!
secondary title
Short-term market trend analysis
BTC：The daily line is in a long-term pressure anchor zone, and the trend of short-term range shocks will not change.
From the point of view of the 4H cycle, after the rise of two central centers, it is now entering the 4H central expansion stage. We have judged the long-term trend of BTC from the fundamental news, funds and trends.
However, the probability of short-term shocks increases, so we can see from the above figure that there are two trends in 4H. The short-term greatest probability is the first one. We predict that BTC will rise and challenge the 10,000 mark in the short-term, but the challenge is probably unsuccessful. It will fall back to test the support of the range around 9288.
Of course, it is not ruled out that it will directly break through the $10,000 mark and consolidate directly in the range above 9200-9600, that is, the second trend, but we judge that the probability is relatively small.
Of course, it is not ruled out that it will directly break through the $10,000 mark and consolidate directly in the range above 9200-9600, that is, the second trend, but we judge that the probability is relatively small.
ETH：Market brief.
The first type of trend: directly break through 215 and then pull back to consolidate above 215, the probability is relatively small.
The second trend: the upward rush to 215 fails, and the callback to the 184-192 range continues to consolidate; the probability is the highest;
EOS：Basically, you can ignore it; support - 2.37; pressure - 2.80; within a narrow range, the chance is small;
XRP：The short-term opportunity space amplitude is about 15%, and the amplitude range is 0.19-0.22. Operate with caution.
