Ethereum 2.0: The story of locking 30 million coins may be a good story

Editor's Note: This article comes fromChatting with William (ID: William1913), Author: William Chen, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

Editor's Note: This article comes from

Chatting with William (ID: William1913)

Chatting with William (ID: William1913)

, Author: William Chen, reproduced by Odaily with authorization.

"Ethereum still needs a story to tell", this is the consensus of most supporters and opponents of Ethereum, because Ethereum has a consensus, a foundation and users, but it lacks stories.

The current Ethereum ecology is like a Deyun Society theater full of audiences who bought tickets, eating melon seeds and watching the empty stage, one after another apprentices come up and down. It's not that what the apprentices said was not funny, but because Guo Degang had a crush just now, so it must be Yue Yunpeng next time, right? Others don't have as much energy.

The Guo Degang mentioned above is IC0, which established the historical status of Ethereum, and it is also the best story that Ethereum has been told for so many years.

But it is a pity that today, the audience in the audience is scattered, and the enthusiasm is no longer what it used to be. Actors were changed wave after wave on stage, trying to tell new stories well and win new "corners", but the audience still didn't accept it. Although the Ethereum ecology is becoming more and more mature, and the value carried on it is getting heavier and heavier, but there is no new wealth effect, and the audience just can't laugh.

After entering the post-IC0 era, the story proposed by Ethereum is called Dapp, but this story is not as successful as EOS and TRON next door, although everyone tells it poorly. After the end of the Dapp era, everyone in the Ethereum ecosystem wanted to understand that the easiest industry to integrate with the blockchain had to be finance, so DeFi has actually become one of the core stories of Ethereum.

By the way, the most interesting point of Dapp is that when it is the hottest, it is when something happens to it. When nothing happens to it, no one pays attention. DeFi has "inherited" this point very well. When everyone cares about DeFi, it is also when something goes wrong.

When everyone is interested in studying the DAI issuance mechanism and the DeFi mortgage liquidation mechanism, it is often the time when the liquidation explodes. The reason why DeFi has become a popular topic in the past two days is also because the DeFi project was stolen, resulting in a loss of tens of millions of dollars and then being recovered.

This is enough to show that people who eat melons have never cared about the DeFi ecology at all. In fact, if I am not a practitioner, I would not care, because this story really does not attract me.

It's not that this story is not good, but because this story is meaningless to ordinary people, but only to big households.

So we have seen that DeFi is actually a "carnival of insiders". The Ethereum ecosystem thinks this thing is great, but the masses are very confused outside the circle: this?

To put it bluntly, everyone understands the core reason, that is, the story does not make sense and cannot touch the hearts of the audience. What does it mean to not make sense? It just didn't go up.

Why did BSV bring a group of younger brothers to explain the story of the "halving market" that has nothing to do with them, why? Because it has risen, everyone will believe it.

The so-called: Fengshui and numerology, if you believe it, there is it, if you don't believe it, you don't. The core of the story is here, if you believe it, you will have it, if you don’t believe it, you won’t have it.

How can the audience believe it? There is only one way: whether this story can make sense will be reflected in the price.

From this perspective, let's talk about whether Ethereum 2.0 is a good story.

Let’s talk about the conclusion first: If there is a smooth transition to 2.0 without any problems, it will be a good story.

I don’t talk about technology today. I think the most direct impact of ETH2.0 on the price is lock-up, and a large amount of liquidity will be locked.

Of course, it is certainly not to say that the technology is not good. Ethereum 2.0 is technically better than 1.0, so why not upgrade it?

However, it is the pledge mechanism that has a direct impact on the price. Liquidity and supply are locked, which will definitely have the most direct positive reaction to the market price.

I believe everyone knows that the lock-up rate of ETH2.0 is determined according to the number of lock-ups, that is to say, the more pledged, the lower the rate of return. My personal understanding is that as long as the rate of return is high enough, people will continue to lock positions until the rate of return reaches a normal market level. See this table for details:

I think the rate of return of 18% 10% is basically invisible, and the final equilibrium position should be at 5.7% or 3.3%, which is the level of the lock-up amount of 1000W-3000WETH. Of course, this is only considering the market interest rate level. The defi project that had an accident before, I later found out that the original interest rate was as low as about 1%, and there were funds of tens of millions of dollars in it.

Therefore, in addition to the market situation, we must also consider the feelings of many people about Ethereum.

To sum up, I think the ETH lock-up that appeared after the emergence of Ethereum 2.0 is at least 20 million.

What is the concept of this Ethereum lock-up level? Let's put it this way, DeFi has worked hard for so long, but so far it has only locked up more than two million ETH.

And the core problem is that DeFi is slowly locked, while ETH2.0 is a wave. When the ETH pledge system comes out, I believe that various tools, wallets, exchanges, etc. will support it immediately. If they are optimistic about ETH itself and the future market price, people will actively lock their positions.

I talked about it before when staking was hot, when will people actively lock positions and value interest? when prices go up. In the face of large fluctuations in currency prices, this interest rate is actually not enough to look at, so people will not lock up positions when the price falls, because 5% is not enough to fall in a day or even an hour.

So is staking itself a false proposition? Hard to say. But if staking appears in the upward channel of price, it must have the effect of accelerant.

At that time, Leek's thinking logic will be: ETH rising income + interest income = his real income.

Participate in lockup = earn 5 points first by hoarding coins. Isn't it beautiful?

Therefore, the hype before the launch of 2.0 will bring about a price increase, which will lead to more users willing to participate in the lock-up after the launch of 2.0, and then the lock-up enthusiasm will continue to be transmitted to the market, resulting in a continuous rise in prices, forming a positive cycle: Up-lock-up-up-lock-up. Ultimately, this process can drive market sentiment and cause FOMO. (Sounds good, but it will stop at a certain moment, and eventually cut off the last batch of people who are chasing up and locking positions at high positions, but this is a later story)

The story of Ethereum 2.0, from warm-up to lock-up, makes sense. After all, the biggest difference between Ethereum 2.0 staking and other staking is that this is the second largest cryptocurrency with a very high consensus foundation.

The plate is big enough, the consensus is strong enough, the feedback brought by staking will be strong enough, and the time will last long enough.