Long and short bursts, what happened to this market?

苏哲

特邀专栏作者

2020-04-19 19:34 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2223 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Long and short bursts, what happened to this market?

AI Summary

Expand

Long and short bursts, what happened to this market?

A lot of people said last night that BTC was going to reach 7450... This market is like this, when it rises, it will be 7500, 8000, and if it falls, it will be 6500, 6000. Just look at these words, what else is low, high and high? Where is low and where is high?

The overall uptrend of the market last night was driven by ETH, which stemmed from the good news that the Ethereum 2.0 test network Topaz was launched and the number of active validators exceeded 16,000.

For the currency market, BTC is the wind vane and the basic market, and ETH is the master and leader of the public chain. The two have led the two eras of cryptocurrency and achieved a detached low in the market. Therefore, any good news involving the two will be infinitely magnified by the market, which can stimulate and motivate the market.

But for ETH, there are actually two bad news in the past two days. ETH-based DeFi applications, Uniswap and Lendf.Me have been hacked successively, highlighting the insecurity derived from the Ethereum smart contract paradigm. The rapid development of DeFi applications is an important area supporting Ethereum 2.0, but frequent DeFi security incidents make everyone doubt the security of Ethereum smart contracts.

Whether it is good news or bad news, these are not heavy news for ETH, so their impact on the currency price trend cannot last. After the timeliness of the news passes, the market will still return to the control of BTC.

We can also see from the short-term trend of BTC that the shock range has moved from 6950-7200 US dollars to 7200-7300 US dollars. Rebound, affected by ETH.

In other words, the trend of BTC has not changed much. A short-term rebound does not mean a reversal of the trend or a choice of direction. The market has not broken out of the shock range, and the market outlook is still not optimistic.

What confuses the market is that Tether issued another 120 million USDT early this morning. In just over a month, billions of dollars in additional issuance have never been encountered in the bull market in 2017-18. If it is said that there is a continuous increase of funds entering the currency market and pushing up the demand for USDT, I don't believe it, because the currency price of BTC has not reflected it at all.

So where did the additional USDT go? Whether there is a 1:1 corresponding US dollar asset as a guarantee, no one knows, because Tether has always been financially opaque and lacks audits, it is estimated that it will really explode until the day it collapses. At that time, it is estimated that it can only be summed up in one sentence: during an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent.

For the overall market trend, the lack of funds in the market has always been a big problem, and it has been like this since the bear market. Everyone should know that funds are sensitive, especially for institutional investors, they are not as stupid as we imagined, on the contrary, they are infinitely smarter than us. The various manipulation logics of the currency market are played in the traditional financial market. Bad trick.

For them, the size of the currency market is only equivalent to a small puddle, which cannot accommodate their huge amount of funds at all, so it is impossible to enter the market in a short time. Although the external stock market is a crisis, its ability to resist risks far exceeds that of the currency market. There is no reason for a large amount of funds to withdraw from the stock market and traditional financial markets and choose to enter the currency circle. Those who have such thoughts are all concerned about obscenity and self-hypnosis.

For the currency market, it is still the logic of "speculation first, emotion first". As long as the currency price rises or rebounds, many retail investors feel that the bull market is coming, and they will miss it if they don't get on the bus. The blockchain is a scam, and the dealer shamelessly harvests it.

These two extreme emotions are negligible. For investment, the first thing we need to do is to be logically self-consistent and think deeply about the motivation behind the market, instead of just focusing on the short-term rise and fall of currency prices.

Of course, I am not saying that we should not let everyone chase the rise and fall in the short term. If you feel that the bull market is coming and want to chase the high, please feel free, because I know that it is impossible to convince others, especially when it comes to investment. People are paranoid. If you don't hit the south wall and don't look back, I can only remind you of this risk at the right time and advise you to respond rationally.

Back to the market, although the broader market rebounded in a short period of time, judging from the trading volume and the rate of increase, it has not chosen a direction. The strength of the market bulls is still lacking, and we need to beware of the risk of rising and falling. The short-term pressure range is in the range of 7300-7500 US dollars, and the daily level is also facing strong pressure from the 60-day moving average.

I still want to remind everyone that the current worry about risks is greater than the expectation of an upward breakthrough. When the market changed a lot in the past few times, the volume energy always exploded in an instant, which means that the current market has the energy to change the small pattern of the market in an instant. , and this part of the energy is not scattered but concentrated, and it also means that at the key point, this part of the energy can achieve instant breakthroughs and instant smashes, resulting in the illusion of attracting more, so the higher the level, the more important it is to maintain cautious.

In addition, from the contract position data of Okex, we can also see the problem. The position slowly climbed from 4.10 to 4.16, corresponding to the decline in the price of BTC currency, and the position from 4.16 to now is ready to decline, corresponding to the currency price. On the contrary, it has risen, and the data is abnormal.

This reflects that in the swing market, the spread and long-short harvest made by the dealer through the contract and the spot are still unclear to the overall market outlook. In the volatile market, our best choice, apart from short-term buying low and selling high and contract trading with small positions, is still to wait and see.

In fact, what I talk to you the most is about the platform. Don’t go to the small platform. There are really many routines. Don’t believe in the one-on-one professional free guidance contract. Friends have experienced this, deeply touched.

Su Zhe thinks that no one will take you to make money for free, so some people really believe it by using some profit charts of small platform simulation disks... Everyone is an adult, so think more about everything. Friends who want to know more about the inside story of the currency circle teacher or play contracts can follow and contact Su Zhe [BTCsuzhe], and show you the currency circle teacher's single routine and contract racing.

期货合约

ETH

BTC

Welcome to Join Odaily Official Community