DC/EP is online, it looks good but it is actually bad, lighten up and watch the show, wait for the main performance

诺海_NhCynora

特邀专栏作者

2020-04-15 14:29 (UTC+8)

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1. The launch of DC/EP is not good for BTC, but the main force will use this news to create good news, and be alert to abnormal fluctuations in the market
2. The relationship between BTC and oil is highly random and confusing. Using oil to predict BTC is very unreliable
3. The A-share digital currency concept market has risen sharply, be wary of emotional transmission of BTC
4. How to deal with the potential position risk behind the DC/EP event
Timestamp: 20.04.15 AM10:17
Bitcoin：$6882

There is not much to talk about today, but there are a few fundamental news that are worth paying attention to. DC/EP started the official exchange today, the A-share digital currency concept sector has risen sharply, oil continues to decline, and the degree of BTC correlation has decreased. In the following text, I will briefly help you sort out the logic of this and how it will affect BTC, and then today's disk analysis and answers to related questions. The content is graded as follows, and you can choose to read it yourself:

The myth of the degree to which oil declines are correlated with BTC.
Does the official release of DC/EP mean that BTC is super beneficial?
How to deal with the potential position risk behind the DC/EP event?
Today's market
Trading straregy
Trading straregy

1. Oil and BTC

Looking at the picture directly, at the daily level, it can be clearly seen that the correlation between "oil" and "BTC" is gradually decreasing. In the verification of historical market conditions, the positive/negative correlation sentiment that will follow for at least one month no longer exists. Currently It presents a situation of "following time and time not following", and in this large random environment, small-level intraday fluctuations will tend to be more random and disorderly, and it is inconvenient to expand due to space reasons. Three conclusions are given to you:

Small grades don't make sense
The daily line level presents irregular random fluctuations (immediately follow time but not follow)
It is not very reliable to predict BTC based on oil trends

2. DC/EP

Super good? NO! I believe that the small partners in the circle were swiped by DC/EP’s online ABC wallet early this morning, and the A shares also had a good increase. I will not repeat the content of the news. Let’s go and see for yourself. I will mainly talk about this The impact on digital currency behind the event.

First, the launch of DC/EP is undoubtedly GJ’s full recognition of blockchain technology, and it is also an active and bold attempt to replace M0. I don’t know if it can harvest the world, but there are signs of this, and DC/EP It is similar to the concept of a "stable currency", so compared to the largest air currency "USDT" in the currency market (an additional 120 million has been issued in the past two days), the subsequent performance of USDT is really worrying.

Second, is DC/EP good for BTC? In the short term, it will be interpreted as positive by market sentiment (for a case, refer to 10.25 Lao Dakou Bolapan), but this kind of positive is unsustainable, because it is essentially negative, and the rise shown on the market is mostly a trap. DC/EP ≠ Bitcoin ≠ Usdt

Third, how to avoid potential risks? The premise of understanding this point is that you agree with my second point of view, that is, DC and Bitcoin are two different things. In different application scenarios, no one will die, but the future is more of a process of ebb and flow. So if you have a position, no matter how long or short it is, I would suggest taking profit and setting a loss to avoid profit taking caused by the sudden pull of the main force. Run early, after all, if this kind of event is over-interpreted, it will be a very good "event market"

3. Today's Quotes

Global mining costs are at a high level, and most miners are currently at a loss. Before the miners toss coins in a large area, I don’t think this is the starting point of a bull market (the bottom has not been reached). On the disk, it is confirmed that yesterday’s buying is a false one. The market is not the main force involved. Today, there are more opinions on maintaining shocks during the day, and they will continue to consume 6600-6700 buying orders downward. If the main force is willing to cooperate with the good news of DC/EP, then the price will have a strong upward trend, but I think the limit of this upsurge is finally closed at 8200. This is a very, very extreme situation. It is more likely to be completed at 7700-7900. This position is also an important watershed in the current long-short market. It is recommended to focus on it.

4. Q&A in the group

This part of the content is mainly to answer some common questions in the group. Every night at 22:00, 5 questions will be collected as the answer materials for the next day. The questions and answers last night are as follows:

Q1. Affected by the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, will the point be invalid?

Answer: The improvement of the epidemic situation is inevitable. Just look at the A-shares in the past few days. Try to control the market, take one step at a time, and manage expectations well.

Q2. What do you think of the follow-up trend? Some analysts think it will reach 3000. What do you think?

Answer: Looking at the current trend, I remain bearish. The rise is a rebound in a bear market, and it will not go too far. The limit of the rise is 8200. If it exceeds, then it must be re-evaluated. I will see lower space. The reasons mainly include the following aspects: insufficient time to accumulate funds, miners floating losses, but the losses are not enough, and the short trend has not reversed. But this time cycle will run for a very, very long time, at least half a year or more.

Q3. Will the second test definitely return to the previous low?

Answer: Not necessarily, if it breaks, then it is the continuation of the trend, if it does not break, then it may be the reversal of the trend

Q4. What are the common trading techniques of dealers? Why are there secondary tests for these things?

Answer: Generally speaking, the trading method has the following steps: "opening a position - testing the market - initially pulling up - washing the market - pulling the market - shipping - accumulating/smashing the market", stepping back twice to confirm whether the bottom is established, test the market mentality, Step on it, and continue to fall, which is the time to run.

Q5. Medium and long-term trend of Bit

Answer: daily line level, empty, target, new low

5. Trading strategy

other species

ETH

The upward trend has not been corrected in place. You can pay attention to the long trading opportunities around 144 at the 4-hour level. The upper pressure can also be small. Key support: 150, 143.89, key pressure: 164.5, 176.2

EOS