The bullish sentiment is getting stronger day by day, is it the main wash or a trend reversal? Can you still see 3000 BTC?

诺海_NhCynora

特邀专栏作者

2020-04-03 17:37 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2294 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

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Foreword:

Foreword:

Before analyzing the market, I would like to apologize to everyone. It has been suspended for nearly two weeks. Today is the official resumption of updates. The content of the article is still the same as usual. I will talk about my views on the market and trading opportunities. If you want to know anything, you can find it in Tell me in the group, I will add some content in the analysis of the next day as appropriate

Because it has not been updated for a long time, there will be a lot of content to talk about today, and maybe a little more technology will be used, and it will look a little boring. In order to facilitate your reading, I have split several key points, and you can choose your own Interesting section to read

1. Market review (has the trend reversed, can you still see BTC below 3000?)

3. Trading strategy (implementation and execution)

Market review:

Market review:

Looking back at the trend of BTC in the past two weeks, at the weekly level, the price showed a surge in bullish beliefs after the continuous heavy-volume killing, and a state of slightly insufficient supply power. The trend at the weekly level is still a safe downward process, and the bulls will The counterattack of the price to the 7000 line is not enough to change the real existence of the bearish background. At present, it is still a bearish trend. The strength of the bulls can only be regarded as a rebound in the downward trend, and there is a high probability that it will continue to fall in the future

After seeing that the weekly line has an overall direction, we look for some clues in the daily chart. The overall performance on the daily chart is a performance at the end of a shock convergence. The price rebounded to about 50% of the downward band, subject to the red trend at the daily line level The line and the upper edge of the triangle are suppressed, and the three areas resonate to form a pressure area. At the same time, there are a large number of supply and selling orders waiting to be traded above 7600-8200, so the price stagnates in the range of 6800-7200. But the rapid withdrawal just shows that the pressure in this place is extremely heavy. The trend of terminal convergence will be manifested as repeated small fluctuations in the small cycle of the day. There are not many opportunities to make orders. The 4-hour level is similar, and there is nothing special

Through the above review, we can generally understand the current market trend point of view. To sum up, the short trend has not yet reversed, and the bulls’ counterattack is likely to be a rebound. Difficult to reach), the technical bear market still exists, and there is a high probability of continuing to go short in the future

In fact, I want to talk a few more digressions here. This bearish point of view is a long-term point of view. It does not tell you that you can go short immediately at the current price, and then directly get below 3000. This is unrealistic. There are many reasons. The loss space is too large, the situation of the short position has not yet appeared, and the strength of the long position has not yet exhausted, etc. Only when the above conditions occur, will there be a trading opportunity with a high winning rate worthy of intervention

At present, the conditions for shorting have not yet appeared, and it is considered short-selling and not short-selling. The specific conditions and scripts continue to look down.

Since it is bearish, can you go short now?

Short execution needs to see at least the two conditions of exhaustion of bulls + short sellers. The current disk does not show this state, so it is not possible

So, can you do more? Why?

You can do more, but not at the current price, because as mentioned above, there are many resistances above 7000, and these resistances are difficult to break through at once. If you go long at the current price (the current price at the time of writing is 6850), then at most 150 Points of floating profit, you may have to run, but if you don’t run in time or the price fluctuates rapidly downward, then the first support below will be 6200, and the floating loss is 600 points. At this time, your choice is to increase the position and spread out Ben, if the price continues to drop, then you will be fully hooked, the top of the mountain is blowing

However, it's hard to be short for so long?

In my logical universe, short positions are absolutely correct choices 80% of the time, because the market is in disorderly and chaotic fluctuations most of the time, the more frequent the participation, the greater the probability of loss. The real good opportunity is Need time and space to grind out

I don’t explain, and I don’t want to correct your thoughts. I have no energy and no obligation. I just want to remind you: the casino is open every day, and it’s not a pity to miss some market prices. The real terrible thing is to force a transaction when there is no market.

Future script:

Future script:

This piece is a newly added module content after the return. The significance of its existence is actually worth exploring. Let me first talk about its difference from the "trading strategy"

The "Trading Strategy" section provides you with an expected high-probability direction of the market on the day, such as long, short, shock and some reference points. A basic fact is that these points and directions may be effective or invalid. Effective It means that the market is running as expected, so there is naturally no problem with the point, but there is another problem in it, what if the market is not as expected?

In fact, this point will be very important. Why do you need a "script"?

Because human nature hates uncertainty and needs certainty, and in order to satisfy this preference, human instincts will actively seek various reasons to fit the market, so as to prove that they are omnipotent, but what is the truth?

The fact is that "the market trend cannot be 100% predictable"

No method can predict the market 100% successfully. The opposite of this is that any method will eventually fail at a certain moment, making you repeatedly fluctuate in the vortex of profit and loss

So does this mean that analysis is useless?

The existence of the "script" is only to provide you with the possibility of a market move, and this possibility is a technically enhanced version after "reasonable analysis". Although there is still a possibility of failure, it is definitely better than guessing blindly

Scenario A (high probability)

Scenario A (high probability)

BTC, the 4-hour level rebound did not break the previous high, and the shorts were killed in heavy volume. After the rebound of 5800, it did not hit a new high, and the supply increased and continued to hit a new low.

This kind of performance is insufficient to follow the supply. After killing the important support at 5800, it is not enough to continue to break down, resulting in a strong desire to buy and push up the price. The way to deal with this kind of move is to go long with low support

Trading straregy:

Combining the above two common script moves, the ideal trading strategy would be to wait for the price to break through the previous high to intervene in empty orders, reduce positions and take profits at the support level, and at the same time intervene in the spot + backhand open long, hold the tail position, and support: 6800, 6600, 6100, pressure: 7055, 7350

ETH Strategy Today

Pay attention to Fibonacci stepping back 50% 136.72 near superimposed demand zone to do long trading opportunities, target previous high, break through structural stop loss, key pressure: 146, 150, key support: 139.76, 135.16