Whether to build a top or a bottom, the market will choose its direction

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特邀专栏作者

2020-03-27 20:15 (UTC+8)

This article is about 2021 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

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Review of last issue

BTC: Now that there are no safe-haven assets in the market, the idea that cash is king has gradually gained the upper hand, and all assets have been sold off sharply. As a type of risky asset, BTC is expected to be sold off by the market. In the short term, the volatility of BTC will further intensify, and even fall to a new low again, because the panic in the market has not yet been released. However, the panic selling in the market this time will generate a certain amount of bottom-hunting funds. If BTC is pushed up to $6,000, it is expected to maintain price stability. After BTC reached $6,000, the price has entered a stable period.

BCH: The resistance level of BCH is at the $180 line. If BCH can break through $180 in large volume, it will open up room for growth and even drive the market to warm up to a certain extent. After testing the $180 line for many times, and after breaking through $180 in heavy volume, the current BCH price has reached $232.

Highlights of this issue

Summary: According to the standard consensus sentiment index, the current market sentiment is good, the latest index is 1.24, the market has completed the transition from pessimistic to positive, and the market situation has been gradually restored, but the current digital currency market is highly correlated with the global financial market. Therefore, the new funds are still in a wait-and-see state. When the epidemic situation and the economy have fundamentally improved, the enthusiasm for long-term incremental funds will explode again.

BTC: Focus on whether BTC can break through the $7,000 mark in large volume. If it breaks through in large volume and stands firm, it will continue to rise. If it goes down after multiple tests, BTC will go back to test the support of 6,000.

BCH: If BCH breaks through $240 in heavy volume, the market will be bullish again. However, the current trading volume is gradually shrinking, which inhibits the upward momentum to a certain extent, and the market is in a wait-and-see state.

current report

As of the release of the report (March 27, 2020), the total market value of global digital currency assets this Friday was US$188.043 billion, a year-on-year increase of US$19.78 billion, or 11.76%. The 24-hour market turnover was US$115.692 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US$47.077 billion or 28.92%. The market value has rebounded considerably, but the 24-hour turnover has dropped significantly, the market turnover has gradually declined, and the market has begun to wait and see. Chips are thinly sold, but new funds are still in a wait-and-see state. At present, the digital currency market and the world's financial market have a strong linkage. The new funds are waiting to see the epidemic situation and the economic solution. When there is a fundamental improvement, they will increase their enthusiasm for doing more.

Data source: standard consensus, CoinMarketCap

According to the standard consensus sentiment index, the current market sentiment is good, the latest index is 1.24, the market has completed the transition from pessimistic to positive, and the market situation has been gradually restored, but the current digital currency market is highly correlated with the global financial market. Therefore, the new funds are still in a wait-and-see state. When the epidemic situation and the economy have fundamentally improved, the enthusiasm for long-term incremental funds will explode again. At the same time, according to the ratio of Bitcoin to the total market value, the market value of Bitcoin has increased to a certain extent, up 1.12% year-on-year; the market value of other currencies has not changed significantly. BTC is still in a dominant position in the market, and the decline of other currencies in the market is more severe than Bitcoin.

Data source: standard consensus, CoinMarketCap

The standard consensus quantitative platform selects quantitative products to help investors overcome bulls and bears. Whether the market is rising or falling, quantitative products will maintain steady growth according to their free rhythm. Trading itself is still an extremely professional job. In the face of emergencies and black swans, professional investors have their own more rational judgments and market experience brought by long-term employment to help professional investors face market changes.

Trend review and analysis of BTC, ETH, BCH

According to CoinMarketCap data, the average daily turnover rate of BTC in the past 7 days is 38.18%, which is 13.51% higher than the average daily turnover rate in the past three months, and 7.54% lower than the average daily turnover rate last week. This week, BTC still showed a fluctuating upward trend, but currently there is a big resistance at the $7,000 price. The recent trend of BTC and the S&P 500 index has a high correlation, but the sharp rise of the S&P 500 in the past two days has not led to a sharp rise in BTC, and there is a certain possibility that BTC will peak. Focus on whether BTC can break through the $7,000 mark in heavy volume. If it breaks through in heavy volume and stands firm, it will continue to rise. If it goes down after multiple tests, BTC will go back to test the support of 6,000.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the average daily turnover rate of ETH in the past 7 days is 95.68%, which is 19.82% higher than the average daily turnover rate in the past three months, and 19.25% lower than the average daily turnover rate last week. ETH is currently in the stage of sideways volatility, the price fluctuates between $132 and $142, the trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. When ETH confirms to break the upper or lower rail of the oscillating channel, the next price process can be clarified.