"Darkest hour" has not yet come, cherish every bullet

Last Friday, A-shares closed slightly higher, while U.S. stocks continued to close sharply lower. The U.S. government has resorted to the big trick of directly sending money to every citizen, but it is still difficult to prevent the stock market from falling. The global stock market is now basically following the pace of the US stock market. The US stock market is not stable, and other stock markets around the world are also difficult to stabilize.

Many friends are concerned about how far the global stock market will fall under the current situation? Then let's see how far the US stocks, as the "leader", may fall.

If we learn from historical data, in the 2008 financial crisis, the three major US stock indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all fell by more than 50%; looking forward, in the technology stock crash from 2000 to 2002, The lowest decline of the three major indexes was 38%, and the highest was 78%.

The current financial crisis has been affected by oil prices and the epidemic, and people's lives have been greatly suppressed. This impact is not limited to the financial field, but also extends to the economy and psychology.

Therefore, the blow to the investment market this time will be far greater than the previous two. Therefore, the decline may only be larger than the previous two and not smaller than the previous two.

Let's just take the Dow Jones Index as an example. In this crisis, from the highest point of nearly 30,000 points to the current 19,170 points, the drop is only 36%. In my opinion, it has not fallen in place.

From another perspective, the U.S. stock market has not experienced a decent rebound since the beginning of the financial crisis, which is not normal in itself.

The more severe the bear market, the more powerful a big rebound will be. This kind of rebound will make some investors regain confidence that the disaster is over, and the market starts to reverse, so they rush in to "buy the bottom" regardless of their own safety. And just as the "bottom-hunting" investors waited for the market to continue to rise with confidence, the market slapped them in the face with a more tragic plunge.

This is the story of the financial crisis, but we have not seen this scene so far, so the bear market that really makes investors desperate is still far away from us.

In the past two days, many media have declared that the stock market, gold and digital currency will soar immediately after seeing the governments of various countries begin to spread money on a large scale. In fact, according to my analysis, this is impossible in the short term (at least 2 months),Unless the epidemic is under control and people's lives do not return to normal, it is impossible for all investment products to start rising. All the seemingly "up" is just a prelude to the next big drop.

In the past few days, there are several pieces of information worthy of our attention:

1) The German government has begun a large-scale publicity campaign to encourage residents to stay at home and minimize going out and gatherings. Based on China's experience, this proves that the epidemic in Germany has just begun, not even an outbreak. If a large-scale outbreak starts in Germany, a lockdown is very likely. The closure of the city means that production and residents' consumption are suppressed to the limit. Germany is the locomotive of Europe. Once the locomotive falls, Europe as a whole will be greatly affected.

2) Amazon, the largest e-commerce platform in the United States, has notified its warehouses to stop the purchase of all commodities except basic daily necessities and medical supplies. Amazon made such a decision by no means based on guesses and estimates, but based on its big data system based on data analysis. This means that in the coming months, except for basic living supplies and medical supplies, the demand for all other commodities may shrink to the extreme.

All of this information tells us that the real panic, the collapse in demand, and the worst of the US and European economies are yet to come.

This is what will happen to developed countries, so what about developing countries?

Under the current circumstances, since all investors will have liquidity problems, the U.S. dollar will become the most sought-after and "safest" asset, and the U.S. dollar will be the strongest among all currencies. The exchange rate of the US dollar will continue to depreciate.

The Russian ruble is a typical example. The ruble has depreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar this year. A sharp depreciation of the local currency means fewer imports and soaring prices. This is what developing countries may face next.

Therefore, in this world, we will see two completely different scenarios: deflation and economic stagnation in developed countries; inflation and stagnation in developing countries.

Historically, such phenomena are rare. Therefore, we must not be optimistic about any current "good".

As digital currency investors, we must realize that digital currency cannot survive this global financial crisis alone. Therefore, when we pay attention to the digital currency market, we must pay more attention to the development of the global financial crisis, especially the development of the epidemic. .

If the epidemic is not under control, the crisis cannot be alleviated; if the crisis is not alleviated, investors' emotions cannot be alleviated; if investors' emotions are not alleviated, all investment products cannot develop according to normal logic.

I hope that every investor will act cautiously, operate carefully, and cherish every bullet in his hand.