Give up the rebound profit, short 6200, must break the new low

诺海_NhCynora

特邀专栏作者

2020-03-18 11:17 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1430 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

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Overall market:

Overall market:

Recently, there have been some subtle changes in the long-short view of the market. The bulls have taken back many downswings. The long shadow line left by 3800 can’t help but make people think about it.

Quilted retail investors will fantasize

"3700 is really an iron bottom. Such a large amount can't be broken. You see, there are a lot of people buying the bottom. Maybe I should increase my position to spread the cost and lower the average price."

People who buy bottom near 3700 will think

"Look, I know that 3800 will not be broken, and now I have earned 1500 points, continue to increase positions"

5500 short sellers will think

"Well, the price can't be suppressed many times, or go out first, go long with a backhand, and rebound in a wave. The trend is empty, go up and go short"

Well, the above assumptions are all reasonable, and it is possible to make a small profit, but the risk is huge

As shown in the picture above, if today’s price really breaks a big positive line and converges to the upper edge in 4 hours, will you choose to ignore the strong bearish background of more than 4,000 points, backhand to chase the long, and expect the bull market to come from then on?

I believe this will be the choice of most people.

otherwise why would it matter

"One big sun line, thousands of troops and horses come to meet each other?"

Chasing ups and downs, making BTC play ZJP-style "running fast" alive

How many people can survive in the market for a long time by buying bottoms against the trend, chasing ups and downs?

And these bargaining chips for bottom-hunting and chasing more will be turned into fuel for the Air Force

In the end, only ashes and sighs remain

How do you see the market today

Many varieties are at the end of the triangle convergence. Although there may be a high probability of an upward rebound at the daily line level, this small rebound is not the prelude to the advent of the bull market. On the contrary, if there is a false breakthrough similar to the previous few days, then it will be The beginning of a new wave of short positions, and this wave will be even more tragic, the air force is not over yet. Although the current market is more favorable to the bulls, it is not enough to reverse the general trend. The overall thinking is still high and the goal is to break new lows

Trading straregy

The hourly level looks like the bulls are constantly going up, but the volume and price continue to shrink. In fact, it has an advantage for the shorts. 6000-6500 is a very important buying hold-up area. As long as the price does not break through this position, it will basically not consider doing it. There are many possibilities, high altitude is the main force, key pressure: 5630, 6000, key support: 4830, 4400, 3800, heavy volume breaks can be used to chase short positions, and rebound to short after a break, stop loss is placed on the upper edge of the triangle, and the target is to see the new low first

ETH Strategy Today

At the end of the same pressure convergence, there is a high probability that the trend will be similar to the bottom of the previous wave. If you can’t break through the key pressure, you can intervene in short selling. If you break through the key support downwards, you can go short with light storage. Key pressure: 125, 138, 144, Key supports: 102, 86