The bottom-hunting sentiment is strong, the rebound has been weak for many times, and the bearishness continues to break new lows

诺海_NhCynora

特邀专栏作者

2020-03-12 14:34 (UTC+8)

This article is about 1650 words, reading the full article takes about 3 minutes

short.

AI Summary

Expand

short.

Overall market:

Overall market:

Before discussing the market, let me talk about the news worthy of attention:

1. Coronavirus

No one wants to see the global spread of the coronavirus. According to reports from China News, the trend shows no sign of stagnation, and the outbreak is still brewing. While protecting ourselves, we must also pay attention to the impact of the event on the market , Macroscopically speaking, the global economy is bearish, the risk aversion sentiment has surged, the panic index VIX has reached a record high, and global assets have plummeted and shrunk. At the same time, the CN50 has shown consistent bullish sentiment after the panic. It has to be said that it is against CN in the epidemic Affirmation of the efforts made, and at the same time, I also believe that when the epidemic is over in the future, various assets will usher in a good rebound

In addition, it can be seen from the figure below that the safe-haven property of gold is still recognized by the public. In sharp contrast, there seems to be no story to tell about the safe-haven property of BTC. This is not good news for long-term currency holding. After all, in the highly manipulated digital currency market, whether there can be a good story is a very important watershed (see the picture below)

2. The CME exchange is temporarily closed

It is very normal for the epidemic to be temporarily closed. Taking this news as an example, the price of the currency has plummeted. I think it is a forced connection. When CME is normal, how many people go to see it? There is no need to be overly anxious, it is better to think in reverse, some people deliberately use the news to spread panic, waiting for you to sell chips, um, then nothing will happen to you

Looking back at the market today, as shown in the figure above, the short trend at the daily level has not yet reversed. Although the price has not broken through multiple tests around 7600, the price did not start to rebound because of support. It broke a new low, although it recovered at a high level, but still look at the new low, 7600 is likely to break, first look at 7100

Why is there a lot of support here at 7600, and the test is valid, but the price will fall if it does not rebound?

First, the general background is a bearish trend. Under any trend background, it is impossible to cause a reversal of the trend because of a support level or a K line

Second, the price is stagnant because this is the rising point of the current round of the market. Many investors will enter the market in batches in the range of 7670-6500. Once the price drops, triggering buying will cause the price to rebound

But the result is the same, making small money against the trend, and making big money with the trend, how to choose depends on the individual

Can 7600-6400 buy the bottom?

I get asked this question countless times every day. The responsible answer is: I don’t know. The main reasons are as follows:

First, I don't know whether you are buying the bottom of the bull market or a rebound. If it is a rebound, I think it is ok. If it is the bottom of the bull market, it is currently uncertain, and it is not recommended to buy the bottom

Second, is there any floating profit in the book? Take me for example, if you take an empty order around 10,000, you can use floating profit to copy some rebounds. Even if you lose money, it will not affect the overall profit. But if you have already lost a lot, then you should do something with a higher chance of winning , instead of continuing to do high-risk transactions to expand losses

Buying bottoms against the trend is a high-risk operation

The first goal is to see 7100, and the second is to see 6400. If there are signs of multi-buyer intervention during the process of killing, then it will intervene in long orders early. For relevant conclusions and analysis, see this articleThe waterfall is coming as promised, the first target for shorts is 7100, don't buy bottoms, short rallies!

At present, the bears see 7600 first, and then continue to break new lows after a slight rebound. The first target is 7100, and the second target is 6600.

Trading straregy

Shorting on rallies is still a relatively stable operation strategy. If there is no floating profit in the book, it is best not to buy bottoms. If you are right, it is okay. After breaking through the previous low of 7568, the opportunity to step back and short, the key pressure: 8000, 8265, the key support: 7827, 8000

ETH Strategy Today

After the price fell sharply and broke through the space, it ran lower in the channel. Pay attention to the short-selling opportunity when the price returns to the upper edge of the channel. Key pressure: 193, 207, key support: 179, 175, 156

EOS Strategy Today

Fluctuating back and forth in the shock range, you can use the BOLL middle rail to do short-term long-term short-term operations. The market outlook will continue to look at new lows, key pressure: 3.09, key support: 3.845

BCH Strategy Today

Similar to EOS, it also pays attention to the performance near the middle track of BOLL. The overall idea is to rebound and short. Before 277 has a large-scale breakthrough and stabilizes, it is best to do long and light positions. Key support: 250, 223, key pressure: 268 、277

LTC Strategy Today

The volatility went down, and there was no strong rebound performance for the bulls. It is recommended to give up the rebound profit and only focus on short-selling opportunities. Key support: 43.9, key pressure: 47.1, 51