When Will 1 Billion Ethereum Transactions Happen?
Editor's Note: This article comes fromBlue Fox Notes (ID: lanhubiji), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Blue Fox Notes (ID: lanhubiji)
Blue Fox Notes (ID: lanhubiji)
, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Web 3 is taking root, moving from a proof of concept to an enterprise-grade solution. The Blocknative team looked back at 2019 and tried to understand: “How many public chain transactions have there been so far?” This quickly led to another question: “How many new public chain transactions can we reasonably expect to happen in the next few years?”
Surprisingly, as far as we know, no one has published answers to these questions. So we decided to do it ourselves. Here's what we found.
After a lot of searching, we found blockchain transaction data from CoinMetrics. Using this data as the basis for our modeling, and thereby validating our methods and assumptions, we constructed the first census of every public chain transaction in the ecosystem, that is, all transactions since the birth of the Bitcoin Genesis block.
secondary title
10 years, 3.1 billion transactions
image description
(Aggregated transactions on blockchains from 2009 to 2019, sources: Blocknative, CoinMetrics)
In 2019, Bitcoin (259.2 million) and Ethereum (242.8 million) accounted for 44% of the total number of global blockchain transactions. From 2009 to 2019, the blockchain industry drove more than $4.6 trillion in total value transfer. 96% of these occurred between 2017 and 2019.
image description
Note that the total value transfer appears to be correlated with the underlying asset price. (Blue Fox Notes: mainly due to the extreme volatility of encrypted assets)
secondary title
When will the annual number of Ethereum transactions exceed 1 billion?
Overall, the five-year compound growth rate for the blockchain industry is 44%. Simply assuming that current trends continue, this means that the industry expects nearly 20 billion new blockchain transactions in the next five years:
image description
(Linear blockchain transaction volume growth forecast)
At this rate, Ethereum and Bitcoin, and perhaps EOS, will cross the 1 billion transactions per year threshold in 2023. However, I suggest we take this prediction with a grain of salt, as our future will not follow the prediction of linear growth, not to mention practical limitations such as block size, etc. (Blue Fox Notes: There are many possibilities in 3 years, including non-linear breakthroughs in technology)
