Can Bitcoin halving alone drive the next bull market?

In the previous article, I shared with you the market analysis of the bull market brought about by the halving of Bitcoin. This halving will still bring a wave of bull market as in the past. Of course, this wave of bull market will not bring the overall market value of digital currency to the same level. The size of the stock market will not allow Bitcoin to be popularized to the general public.

So if there is a market for this halving, what might happen?

Let's first review the last halving market in 2016.

The last Bitcoin halving took place in July 2016. From July to December 2016, Bitcoin hovered between $500 and $700 for a long time, which means that in the year when the halving occurred, the halving effect did not occur immediately.

why?

why?I think one of the important reasons is the speculative frenzy triggered by the ICO of Ethereum, which has driven the entry of funds from outside the circle. After the speculative funds outside the circle entered the market, they not only frantically pursued various ICO projects, but also formed a big bull market.

Freezing three feet does not happen in a day. The ICO frenzy of Ethereum did not suddenly appear in 2017, but has gradually developed since 2016. Wait until its wealth effect begins to attract the attention of off-market funds before it will cause a surge.

Let's continue to look at the Bitcoin halving market in 2012:

The 2012 Bitcoin halving took place in November. However, between November of that year and July 2013, Bitcoin hovered within $100 for a long time, which means that half a year after the halving occurred, it did not rise due to the halving effect.

It was not until October 2013 that Bitcoin began to rise from $200, and reached a maximum of more than $1,000 in December 2013.

Comparing these two bull markets, there are two rules:

First, the halving effect will not happen immediately for a period of time after the halving. Both of these halvings took place at least half a year before the real surge began.

Second, if the halving is only a factor of halving and there are no other factors to stimulate it, the halving effect will be there but not strong.

The stimulus brought by the Ethereum ICO during the second halving made Bitcoin rise from less than $1,000 to $20,000, an increase of at least 20 times; while the first halving only relied on itself, it only made Bitcoin from $100 It rose to $1,000, a 10-fold increase.

In addition, for the halving cycle to have an effect, there must be a fuse. From this point of view, the trigger for the second halving is very obvious, which is the ICO; and the fuse for the first halving may be the low price and price fluctuation of Bitcoin that arouse the curiosity of speculative funds from outsiders. Bitcoin, which is around $100, can manipulate the price with a little capital entering the market. Once this speculative effect reaches a certain level, it will drive follow-up funds to enter the market continuously, thus forming a bull market.

How will this halving be performed? History will not simply repeat itself, but there are always rules to follow.

1. First look at the fuse of the halving effect.

In the face of the upcoming halving, so far, I have not seen a trigger similar to the 2017 ICO other than the halving factor.

Therefore, if we only judge by the factor of halving, we can only compare the market in 2013. But what is different this time from 2013 is that Bitcoin was only $100 at that time, but now Bitcoin is already $10,000.

In the current situation where there is no convenient channel to facilitate the free entry and exit of large funds from the outside world, I think this halving effect will not be very strong even if it exists.

So is it possible that this time there will still be fuses from other fields, similar to the ICO in 2017? Perhaps in some fields or applications, sparks are starting to spread, but most people haven't noticed yet.

It will take a certain amount of time for this fuse to grow to a certain scale before it can attract large-scale foreign funds to enter the market again.

But I estimate that even if there is, it may be next year at the earliest, and it is unlikely to be this year, because there is not enough time.

2. What is the possible increase of Bitcoin in this halving?

If the only factor in this bull market is halving, then it is very likely that this bull market will only be a small bull market, and it is impossible to get out of the big bull market like in 2017.

In this case, the price that Bitcoin may rise to will not be too high, and it is conservatively estimated to be between US$20,000 and US$50,000.

If this bull market is accompanied by phenomenal technologies or applications in the industry, the increase may be even more optimistic.