The last predictable halving bull market in the currency circle?
Recently, Jiang Zhuoer expressed his views on the upcoming halving. He believes that this halving will bring about a bull market, but this bull market may be the last one that can be clearly predicted. The main reasons are as follows:
1) The demographic dividend has dropped sharply, and everyone who should know about Bitcoin already knows it;
2) The number of Bitcoin halving has dropped significantly;
3) The proportion of Bitcoin's total market value continues to decrease, and the blockchain market will be closer to markets such as US stocks and real estate.
Are the three reasons given by Jiang Zhuoer tenable? We analyze one by one:
First: Regarding the sharp drop in the demographic dividend, everyone who should know about Bitcoin already knows it. This means that the audience of Bitcoin may reach a considerable scale after this bull market effect, and the audience will explode again in the future halving Sexual growth is no longer possible.
I have reservations about this.I think that for an investment product, just being known is not enough to explain its popularity. It must be very convenient for ordinary people to trade to explain its popularity.
A typical example is gold.
In our country, after 1949 and before 1978, the folks basically had no channels for selling gold, and the folks did not have the strength to buy, so ordinary people could not buy gold normally.
During these 30 years, ordinary people only knew the preciousness and rarity of gold, but they could not perceive the preciousness and rarity of gold. A full 960 million Chinese (the population of mainland China in 1978) are absent from the global gold market.
After the reform and opening up in 1978, my country gradually opened up the private sales channels of gold. Coupled with the booming economy, the demand for gold exploded among the private sector.
Now my country has become the largest consumer of gold in the world, and the huge gold consumption of Chinese residents is indispensable for the rise of gold to the current price.
The fundamental reasons behind this are the gold sales and repurchase shops that can be seen everywhere in big cities and the strong consumption power of residents. These two elements are indispensable.
The consumption level of the current residents of our country is fully capable of investing in Bitcoin, but there is no legal and convenient investment realization channel. It is precisely because of the lack of legal and compliant channels that the trading channels of Bitcoin have a certain threshold, and once the amount of funds is large, it will become very troublesome to realize it. This is a huge obstacle to the large-scale popularization of Bitcoin in my country.
If this obstacle is not removed, it will be difficult for not only large funds and large private equity regulars to enter this market, but also for ordinary people to enter this market.
Therefore, as long as this obstacle remains, Bitcoin still has a huge potential customer base in our country.
Second: a sharp drop in the number of halvings, which means that the halving effect will no longer be obvious.
First of all, this halving will make the amount of currency produced by each block of Bitcoin bid farewell to double digits and enter the era of single digits, an era that is completely over.
Miners are the first to be affected by the halving, and their income will drop by 50% after the halving. As for the cost of miners, according to the current series of data, not only the computing power of Bitcoin continues to grow, but also the price of mining machines will likely continue to rise in the future, which means that the cost of miners will continue to rise.
The sharp drop in income and the rise in costs will inevitably lead to a higher unit price of Bitcoin to maintain mining. However, it is difficult to accurately predict how much the price of Bitcoin can reach.
In addition, since miners must sell some bitcoins in order to maintain the daily operation of the mine, the biggest daily selling pressure of bitcoin actually comes from miners.
After this halving, the income of miners will be reduced, and the amount of Bitcoin sold will be reduced. The selling pressure on the market will also be reduced, and the price fluctuation of Bitcoin will also be reduced. The price of Bitcoin may gradually move toward a steady state.
Third: Regarding the proportion of Bitcoin, as of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $9,700, with a total market value of $176.6 billion, accounting for 63% of the market value of the entire digital currency market.
At the peak of the last round of bull market, the unit price of Bitcoin soared to nearly 20,000 US dollars, and the market value once reached 320 billion US dollars. When it reached the peak unit price, its market value accounted for 54%.
However
HoweverThis time we can't see the ICO effect, and so far we haven't seen any project that can recreate the miracle of Ethereum, so I don't think there will be a large number of altcoins in this market, even if there is still a market in this halving, But the market value of Bitcoin may still be very high.
We assume that in this round of bull market, Bitcoin still accounts for 54% at the peak, and boldly assume that the price of Bitcoin can reach 50,000 US dollars, then the total market value of the entire digital currency market will be 910 billion US dollars. And what is the current market value of US stocks? Almost $50 trillion.
The total market capitalization of the digital currency market is still far away from the US stock market.
The above is my personal analysis of the three reasons given by Jiang Zhuoer. In the follow-up article, I will analyze my prediction of the possible trend of this market with you.
