Is the plunge due to Binance shorting after losing coins? Let the data on the chain tell you the truth
Author | Qin Xiaofeng
Editor | Hao Fangzhou
Produced | Odaily
Author | Qin Xiaofeng
Editor | Hao Fangzhou
According to the HOLD market, at 5 a.m. Beijing time today, Bitcoin plunged from $10,153 to $9,300, a drop of 8.4% in one hour. As of press time, BTC was temporarily at $9,575, an intraday drop of 5.4%.
Among them, there are two most widely spread news: one is that Binance went down yesterday, the reason behind it was that it was attacked by hackers and lost 20,000 BTC and 1.7 million ETH; the other is that Binance opened an empty order in order to make up for the loss , which caused Bitcoin to plummet today.
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Check with Binance
In addition, Odaily also verified these two news from the perspective of objective data.secondary titleOn-chain data shows no large-scale transfers on Binance
The Odaily query found that the news about Binance’s coin loss first came from the self-media
"The protagonist is not an assassin"
. The article also received tens of thousands of views in just a few hours, but the author quickly deleted the article.
It said that the news was seen in the circle of friends and has not been confirmed. "If it is found to be false news that has not been confirmed, it will be deleted as soon as possible."
So, did Binance lose coins? The simplest verification is to find the data on the chain.
Generally, after a successful hacker attack, the "attack results" will be transferred once or multiple times in the shortest time, which will also leave "evidence" of large transfers on the blockchain.
However, the Odaily query found that there was no large-scale transfer of funds from Binance in the past 24 hours.
Data on the Tokenview chain shows that in the past 24 hours, there was no Binance in the transaction with a single BTC transfer amount exceeding 20,000.
When we shrink the BTC transfer amount again to 10000, 5000, 2000, 1000, Binance is still not among them.
According to the collection of contract data, the inflow and outflow of Binance Exchange funds in the past 24 hours are as follows:
ETH: 551,200 inflows, 688,000 outflows, and 136,800 net outflows.
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(The inflow of BTC in major exchanges, the picture comes from Contract Emperor)image description
(The inflow of ETH in major exchanges, the picture comes from Contract Emperor)
Regardless of the outflow or net outflow, the two sets of figures do not match the rumored Binance coin loss figures in the community.
Therefore, we can conclude that there is a high probability that Binance did not lose coins.
For another "rumor", we also conducted an argument.
However, according to Contract Emperor data, from February 19 to before the early morning plunge, the total positions of Huobi, OKEx and BitMex did not increase significantly: from 3.126 billion US dollars to 3.195 billion US dollars, an increase of only 2%.
In addition, Binance's own contract positions have been falling sharply since February 19, and there has been no increase in positions.
To sum up, the statement that Binance opened short to make up for losses is also unreliable.
Where did the rumor start?BinanceIn fact, this "rumor" caught up with a good time: the Binance system was down for maintenance.
Regarding the cause of the downtime,
Binance
On February 17, an announcement was made to explain: the market is recovering, and the increase in transaction demand has led to an increase in the number of visits to Binance, but the throughput performance cannot match the demand in a short period of time, which leads to transaction failures.
However, so far, the problem has not been completely resolved. Therefore, a difficult problem facing Binance is how to break through technical barriers as soon as possible.
In addition, many investors are also very curious, since it is not Binance’s loss of coins that caused the market to plummet, why did the market go down?
The author believes that this decline is largely a long-short game, and the short-term victory is the result of the short-term. OKEx trading big data shows that in the past three months, the market's long-term sentiment has continued to sharpen, and reached a high point on February 18, and the BTC leverage long-short ratio reached 32.
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(BTC leveraged long-short ratio)
However, the market will not always be a one-sided market. When the long positions accumulate more, the short positions will find ways to harvest. Today's plunge was largely the result of bears using fake news to suppress bulls, causing bulls to retreat.
