The data behind the seven major production reduction coins: the average price of the currency increased by 143%, and the average mining income increased by 77%
Analyst | Edited by Carol | Produced by Bi Tongtong | PANews
Analyst | Edited by Carol | Produced by Bi Tongtong | PANews
Recently, the "production reduction" coins led by Bitcoin have risen one after another, and the "concept of production reduction" seems to be blowing the horn of the bull market.
This year’s production reduction mainly includes BTC (the original token refers to the blockchain below) and its forked coins BCH, BSV, BTG, BTG, Ethereum’s forked coin ETC, anonymous coins DASH, ZEC, XZC, SERO , in addition to ZEN (Horizen) and Flo (Flo Network), etc.
The general significance of production reduction is to control inflation, stabilize value, and then promote the stability of the blockchain network. There is also a view that the reduction of production can make cryptocurrencies have properties similar to precious metals such as gold, and exchange scarcity for use value and storage value.
Based on this, one of the basic expectations of currency people for the reduction of production is that the currency price will rise. Judging from the production reduction of BTC, its currency price has indeed risen sharply after the two previous production reductions. It is expected that in May of this year, BTC will usher in the third production cut in history, and now the BTC production cut may have a wide-ranging impact of "pulling the whole body".
PAData analyzed the currency price, on-chain transaction and mining situation before and after the two BTC production cuts in history, and focused on analyzing the changes in the currency price, on-chain transaction and mining data of each mainstream production-reduced currency since this year, in order to observe the production reduction The impact of this year provides a reference for a series of production cuts this year.
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The price of BTC has risen significantly after two halvings, and the number of transactions on the chain has risen steadily
Historically, BTC has experienced two production cuts. The first time occurred on November 28, 2012, the block reward was halved from 50 BTC to 25, and the second time occurred on July 10, 2016, the block reward was halved from 25 BTC to 12.5.
According to statistics, when the production was cut for the first time in 2012, the price of Bitcoin was 12.2 US dollars, and the increase in the first half of the year was about 134.62%. Half a year after the production reduction, the price of Bitcoin reached $128.8, an increase of about 955.74%, and reached a maximum of $230.7, with a maximum increase of about 1790.98%.
After the first production cut, the price of Bitcoin rose significantly. However, during the second production cut, the "halving market" was much milder.
At the time of the second production cut, the price of Bitcoin was $650.3, and it rose by 51.30% in the first half of the year. About a month before the production reduction, the "halving market" reached a small peak. In mid-June, the currency price reached 767.4 US dollars. However, when the halving was approaching, the price of the currency fell back. Even in early August after the halving, the price of the currency fell to 527 US dollars, returning to the starting point where the price of the currency began to rise before the halving. After that, it still experienced a period of about two months. adjustment period. Within half a year after the second halving, the currency price rose to 892.5 US dollars, an increase of about 37.24%, and the highest rose to 11354.5 US dollars, the highest increase of about 1646.04%.
However, during the second production reduction period, the number of daily transactions on the Bitcoin network always fluctuated around the average value, and the half-year increase was also lower than that during the first halving. The total number of on-chain transactions on the day of the second production cut was about 220,800, and it rose to 281,700 half a year later, an increase of about 27.98%.
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The second halving caused mining profits to drop by 13%
The reduction in production directly affects the mining income of miners. According to the statistics of BitInfoCharts, during the first production reduction, BTC miners could earn USD 3,655 per TB of computing power per day. In the first half of the production reduction, the miners’ income was basically stable. After the production reduction, the mining income has dropped significantly, from $3655/T to $1778/T, with a total drop of about 51.35% in three days. But since then, mining profits have rebounded rapidly, rising by 53.43% within 180 days, reaching a maximum of 13,352 USD/T, a maximum increase of about 256.31%.
However, the situation during the second production cut of Bitcoin in 2016 was different from the first one. The mining income of miners fell off a cliff. After the second production reduction, miners can earn USD 0.764/T per day, which is about 63.95% lower than the highest USD 2.119/T before the production reduction. In the following six months, the mining income of miners did not recover quickly or even reached a new high, but stabilized at a level of around USD 0.7/T, and dropped from USD 0.764/T to USD 0.669/T within half a year, a drop of about 13.00%.
Block rewards are only one component of miners’ income, the other is transaction fees. The block reward is reduced, but if the transaction fee rises, it can make up for the reduction in income brought about by the halving to a certain extent.
According to statistics, the average daily transaction fee for each transaction was about US$0.0091 during the first production reduction of Bitcoin, and rose to US$0.1195 in half a year after the production reduction, an increase of 1213.19%, and the highest increase reached 1762.64%.
During the second production reduction, the daily average transaction fee per transaction on the Bitcoin network was about $0.1707. Excluding some extreme cases before the production reduction, the daily average transaction fee per transaction was relatively stable. Within half a year after the production cut, the average daily transaction fee rose to $0.3416, an increase of about 100.12%, and the highest increase was about 287.46%.
Although the daily average transaction fee is denominated in US dollars, it is bound to be affected by the rise and fall of the currency price, but according to the currency price corrected by Coin Metrics, the increase in the daily average transaction fee is significantly higher than the increase in the currency price during the same period, which shows from the side , after the production reduction, the transaction fee under the currency standard has increased.
Looking at the currency price, the number of on-chain transactions, and the trend of mining revenue during the two halving periods in the history of Bitcoin, it can be seen that the second "halving effect" is much lower than the first. The price increase during the halving period was much lower than the first time, and there was a correction after the halving, the increase in the number of daily transactions was lower than the first time, the increase in the average daily transaction fee was lower than the first time, and the daily mining revenue showed negative growth.
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This year's production reduction currency price rose by more than 143%
BTC will usher in the third halving this year, and DASH will usher in the sixth halving this year, but in addition, BCH, BSV, ETC, etc. are all halving for the first time. Although each cryptocurrency has its own characteristics, considering that many of them are forked coins of BTC, and the current market value of BTC has always remained above 60%, which has a strong impact on other cryptocurrencies, so BTC’s The impact of historical production cuts may be of some reference. So, since entering the production reduction year, how has the performance of the mainstream production reduction coins been? What is the possible future trend?
Since entering the production reduction year, affected by the concept of "production reduction", the prices of the seven major production reduction coins have all risen. From January 1st to February 5th, in more than a month, BTC rose by 34.27%, reaching $9,628. As of press time, BTC has reached the $10,000 mark, and the upward trend is obvious. And the current increase is still lower than the increase in the first half of the first two production cuts.
However, BTC is the one with the smallest increase in production reduction this year. Its fork currency BCH has increased by 115.82%, BSV has increased by 208.45%, BTG has increased by 123.19%, and the two anonymous coins DASH and ZEC have also increased by 193.82% and 154.62% respectively. , Ethereum’s fork coin ETC rose 176.13%. The prices of the seven major production-reduced coins rose by an average of 143.76%.
Although the currency prices are constantly rising, judging from the data on the chain, the current number of daily transactions is basically stable. Only BTG and DASH have a high number of daily transactions on certain days, but they immediately returned to the daily average level. .
The average number of daily transactions of BCH this year is about 45,500 times, an increase of 27.71%, BSV is about 461,600 times, an increase of about 61.92%, and BTG is about 1,200 times, an increase of about 43.53%. In terms of the average number of daily transactions, BSV is the most active on-chain transaction among Bitcoin forks. In addition, the average daily transactions of ETC this year reached 37,600, a slight decrease of 2.52%. DASH and ZEC reached 26,900 and 3,400, respectively, an increase of -4.3% and 52.47%. Overall, the average number of daily transactions for the seven major coins has risen by 66.57% this year.
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The transaction fee of production-reduced coins increased by more than 176%
From the perspective of the daily average transaction fee per transaction, the average (median) transaction fee of the seven major production-reduced coins this year has increased by 176.13%. Among them, BTC has risen from US$0.2815 to US$0.6627, an increase of 135.46%, which has exceeded the level at the time of the second production reduction, and is also far higher than the increase in currency prices.
In addition, the daily average transaction fee of BCH has increased by 251.73%, BSV has increased by 144.96%, BTG has increased by 24.62%, ETC has increased by 176.13%, DASH and ZEC have increased by 1286.29% and 207.11% respectively. Among them, the average daily transaction fees of BCH, DASH, and ZEC have increased much higher than the increase in currency prices, which may indicate that the current transaction fees of these three public chains under the currency standard have increased compared with previous ones, especially DASH, the increase in transaction fees over the same period It is more than 6 times the price increase of the currency. In addition, the average daily transaction fee increase of BSV and BTG is much lower than the increase of the currency price, and the increase of ETC is equal.
Due to the impact of production reduction, the currency price has risen first, but the block reward has not been reduced, so the current mining income of miners has increased significantly. Since entering the production reduction year, the average daily mining income of the seven major production reduction coins has increased by an average of 77.79%.
Among them, BTC rose from $0.154 per T per day at the beginning of the year to $0.184 on February 10, an increase of about 19.48%. BSV’s mining revenue growth rate is lower than that of BTC, only 14.58%. On February 10, no T computing power can make a profit of $0.165.
The two anonymous coins had the highest increase in mining revenue. DASH rose from $0.008 per G computing power per day at the beginning of the year to $0.021 on February 10, an increase of 168.23%. ZEC made a profit per K computing power per day at the beginning of the year. $0.040 rose to $0.091 on February 10, an increase of about 129.87%. In addition, the mining profits of BTG and ETC both increased by more than 90%, reaching 98.31% and 92.83% respectively.
