Ethereum ends a lackluster year, will it rise in 2020?

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(Ethereum price trend in 2019)

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(Bitcoin price trend in 2015)

That year, Bitcoin finally went out of direction towards the end of the year, and for most of the year, it was flat, and although it rose and fell, the price remained at the same level.

So, will Ethereum's 2020 go out of Bitcoin's 2016 market?

These two years are somewhat similar, both are a year of "halving", and both are two years after the previous high point, and both are also expected to get out of the skyrocketing market.

Moreover, the current Ethereum still has an illusion similar to that of Bitcoin in 2015. Just like the failure of payment demand in Bitcoin, the ICO project on Ethereum has become a burden during the bear market, and project parties can sell the ETH obtained by ICO without any worries.

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The launch of Ethereum probably brought Bitcoin along as well, since initially you needed to buy BTC to get ETH.

However, since Ethereum is Turing complete, it does not require an entirely new blockchain network to implement a new invention. Conversely, anything codable can be codified in ETH, including somewhat primitive but fully automatable banks.

For example, one of the cases is the stable currency DAI issued by the decentralized bank MakerDAO, which provides a current interest rate 10 times that of the bank (generally speaking, the bank's current interest rate is around 3%).

Arguably traditional banks lack the advantage at this point because they have offices, employees who want good bonuses, etc. costs that are obviously paid by the bank users. And all of these are replaced by extremely cheap code on Ethereum.

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Some smart contracts are very complex, for example, to create a DAI contract, you put in ETH, manage collateral, hedge, arbitrage, create code price management strategies, basically be your own bank.

But from the end user's point of view, you don't have to care so much. All you need to know is: has the contract been hacked, and if not, how long has it been running?

Although this is not a perfect way to measure security, relatively speaking, it is an effective way to quantify risk with technical level. You don't need to worry about managing collateral, you can simply exchange ETH for DAI and earn savings.

Let’s say you have $100,000 in savings and you think stock prices might be too high, or you think the dollar will strengthen, or you just want some quick and easy financial savings.

The solution in the last case is to put it in the bank survival period, but if you really do this, you will lose money due to inflation, because the bank interest rates in many places are extremely low, and the interest that can be given to the current savings account is basically is 0%.

But if you put it in a decentralized banking system like DAI, you can get 4% savings interest. All people have to do is buy ETH first and then exchange it for DAI.

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If you regard Ethereum as the gateway to the new DEFI field, its current value may be underestimated.

Just as bulls get emotionally overwhelmed and can lose touch with reality, so can it happen with bears. Bears can often give many reasons for the decline, but at present, apart from some cliché reasons, it is unclear what negative things will happen to Ethereum in the future.

Yes, upgrades are always delayed because they're too complicated, or for some other reason, and you're not even sure if they'll even be released in the end.

Yes, like bitcoin devs, ethereum devs have grown arrogant through poor communication skills and belittling "investors", and some have even left, slowing progress.

Ethereum lacks a clear monetary policy - having said that, Ethereum aims to reduce inflation to near zero.

IC0 projects have been sold and sold, many projects have no results, and the progress has been delayed again and again. It is not an exaggeration to say that they are semi-decentralized.

These shortcomings surfaced during this two-year bear market, and more, but at the end of the day, Ethereum still has a price of $130.

That could mean that all the negatives have been priced in and the market still thinks, even very stubbornly, that it's still worth at least $130.

If it doesn't fall further, it presumably means it has to rise, because many potential positives, escalating developments are overlooked during a bear market.

Although DeFi may seem like a field, it can slowly and gradually automate more financial services through a large number of applications, and ultimately promote the development of banks and other financial entities.

Additionally, the delay in the upgrade has been priced in, though it's unclear if other given factors have been priced in as well.

For example, does the market really believe that Ethereum's inflation rate will drop to close to zero or even negative?

Is the potential demand for earning interest through PoS already reflected in the price of digital assets? Once PoS is out of the market, what will happen to the locked ETH? What are the new plans to convert ETH 1.x (the name of the existing set of Ethereum platform protocol upgrades) into a sharding mechanism for POS?

We could list many, many more problems, but remember, Ethereum was declared dead earlier last year, and it is where it is today.

Therefore, it still has a chance to rise again, because it has achieved many goals, and there are more goals waiting to be realized. At the same time, it has created many new concepts (such as Defi), some of which have already landed, and some have just arrived. start up.

As for valuation, if we only talk about one aspect, such as replacing certain banking services, even if there is only a 20% chance, even if only 1% of the market share is obtained, this is still a trillion-dollar thing.

As Darwin once said: "It is not the strongest or the most intelligent of the species that will survive in the end, but the one that is most adaptable to change."